Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs Pick - Odds and Against the Spread Prediction

January 12, 4:35 PM EST

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
Kansas City -5

The divisional round of the NFL playoffs begins this Saturday, between the Indianapolis Colts and the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs will come into this one much rested following their first-round bye, and the Colts are coming off a 21-7 victory over the Houston Texans. We'll see two of the league's best quarterbacks in this game, as Patrick Mahomes will continue his MVP campaign against everyone's comeback player of the year Andrew Luck. A lot of what Luck did this season was overlooked because of the insane numbers Mahomes was putting up for Kansas City. Luck was 5th in passing yards during the regular season and right behind Mahomes for 1st in touchdown passes with 39 of his own. The Chiefs are a 5.5 point favorite.

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Tight End Matchup Worth Watching

This game also premiers two the top tight ends in the league. For Travis Kelce what else can you ask for? During the regular season, he led the team in receptions (103), yards (1,336), and finished second in touchdowns with 10. This year marked Kelce's third straight season with at least 1,000 yards, as he continues to prove to be the best tight end in the entire league. One of the Colts points of emphasis this offseason was to get more weapons for Andrew Luck to play with. They found that in Eric Ebron, who will be visiting the Pro Bowl with Travis Kelce this season. Ebron finished his season with 66 receptions, 750 yards, and 13 touchdowns, tying him with Davante Adams for second-most in the league behind Antonio Brown this season (15).

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Mahomes Likely MVP

We know what we're getting out of Patrick Mahomes and his offense already, as the question remains can the Colts do enough to keep up? The defense faired pretty well against Deshaun Watson and the Texans in the Wildcard round, holding them to just seven points and 322 yards of total offense. The Chiefs led the league in points per game (425.6), but this Colts defense has been playing well lately. The "maniac" Darius Leonard has played a significant role in the Colts defensive turnaround, after leading the team in total tackles this season (163), he contributed 13 total tackles against the Texans. Indianapolis found their running game against the Texans, as Marlon Mack went off for 148 rushing yards and a touchdown on 24 carries.

A pretty impressive performance against a Houston defense that yielded the third fewest rushing yards per game (82.7). We’ll see if that trend continues against the Chiefs, who allow the 27th most rushing yards (132.1). The Colts really just nailed the first two rounds of their draft this past offseason, between Quenton Nelson, Darius Leonard and another guy not a lot of people talk about Braden Smith. Nelson and Smith have helped revolutionize this Colts offensive line that went from giving up the most sacks in the league last season to the fewest this season.

Colts at Chiefs Prediction 01/12/2018

They're favoring the Chiefs at home this weekend -5.5, but don't be surprised if we see the Colts sneaking out of Arrowhead with a victory. As great as Andy Reid is at head coaching, he has struggled in the playoffs with a record of 11-13, 1-4 in his time with the Chiefs. We'll see if Patrick Mahomes can be the difference. We like the chances.

Free Pick: 
Take the Chiefs -5

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