Indianapolis Colts at Chicago Bears Point Spread Pick
The Chicago Bears delivered a dramatic 30-26 comeback victory against the Atlanta Falcons in week 3. Despite trailing by 16 points at the start of the 4th quarter, the Bears rallied behind quarterback Nick Foles who replaced former starter Mitchell Trubisky to score 20 unanswered points in route to the victory. Unfortunately, the Bears comeback victory was overshadowed by the Falcons, who dropped their 2nd straight game by blowing a near 20 point lead in the 4th quarter. While Atlanta Head Coach Dan Quinn deserves heavy criticism, let's not overlook the fact that the Bears offense rallied behind Foles and improved to 3-0 SU for the first time since 2013.
This week the undefeated Bears will host the Indianapolis Colts at Soldier Field. The Colts improved to 2-1 SU last week with a decisive victory over the New York Jets. For the 2nd straight week, the Colts defense flexed their muscles in a big way. One week after shutting down the Vikings, the Colts wreaked havoc on Jets QB Sam Darnold. The defense produced two sacks, three turnovers, and two interceptions that were returned for defensive touchdowns in a dominant 36-7 blowout. When the Colts roll into Soldier Field on Sunday, the Bears will face the #1 defense in the NFL that has yielded just 225 yards per game through the opening three games of the season.
QB Nick Foles to start for Chicago
The Bears will need a strong offensive performance to knock off the NFL's top defense on Sunday. As I mentioned earlier, starting QB Mitchell, Trubisky looked fairly awful against the Falcons, completing just 13 of 22 passing for 128 yards with one touchdown and one pick. To be honest, that is typical for Trubisky, who has been borderline terrible for the last two seasons. Fortunately, QB Nick Foles will receive the start this weekend against the Colts. Foles came off the bench to fire three 4th quarter touchdowns last week.
More importantly, Foles has the experience and talent to get the best out of this Bears offense with underrated talents that include receivers Allen Robinson, Anthony Miller, Jimmy Graham, and capable pass-catching tailbacks David Montgomery and Tarik Cohen. I expect the Bears offense to be more efficient from start to finish on Sunday, which should help their bid to stay undefeated. Despite the Colts' defensive prowess, the Indianapolis offense has been rather mediocre. Personally, I believe this is a great opportunity and match-up to exploit the Colts' offensive struggles.
- Get more details: Indianapolis at Chicago Match-up Stats
Expect the Colts' offense to struggle
To be completely honest, the Chicago defense is not nearly as strong as their reputation may suggest. However, the Colts offense is not exactly dynamic. QB Phillip Rivers is completing a high percentage of passes, but that is because his passes are typically within 15 yards of the line of scrimmage. Rivers has produced just three passing touchdowns this season and also has three interceptions. Simply put, the Colts cannot stretch the field vertically. Instead, WR T.Y Hilton and running back Nyheim Hines and Jonathan Taylor have been serviceable underneath options that have been play potential after the catch. This is not exactly a daunting defensive match-up for Chicago, and the Bears do not give up turnovers to the Colts defense. The Colts defense has provided most of the opportunities for the offense in recent weeks, but I think Foles will play well to keep that from happening again.
Colts vs. Bears Betting Trends
- The Colts are 0-6 SU in their last six games on the road.
- The Colts have hit the "under" in 4 of the last six games.
- The Bears are just 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games.
- The Bears have hit the "under" in 5 of the last six games.
- In the last six meetings between Chicago and Indianapolis, both teams have split 3-3 SU and ATS.
Colts vs. Bears Prediction - Week 3 ATS Pick
I really like the Bears +3 at Bovada potential with Foles at quarterback, and I also think this match-up against the Colts is favorable. I would expect a low scoring game with the Bears controlling things late.