Green Bay Packers vs San Francisco 49ers NFC Championship Pick

Date: 
January 19, 6:40 PM EST
Location:
TV:

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
San Francisco 49ers -7.5
Total: 
45

It's a rematch of a blowout from earlier this season when the 49ers host the Packers for the NFC championship game Sunday afternoon out in Santa Clara. San Francisco bombed Green Bay back in November and covered easily as a three-point favorite. Now the Niners are favored by a touchdown-plus. How are we playing this contest with our free NFL pick?

NFL Betting Odds

NFC championship game betting odds opened San Francisco at -7 over Green Bay, with an over/under of right around 45. Early betting action then added a half-point hook to that line.

Any bettors thinking the Packers might win this game outright could get upwards of +300 on the NFC championship game money line.

NFC Championship Game Betting Preview

NFC North champion Green Bay reached this Sunday's championship game by holding off Seattle in a divisional-round game last Sunday 28-23. The Packers drove the opening possession of the game 75 yards to a touchdown and led 21-3 at the half. They then allowed the Seahawks to creep within one score midway through the fourth quarter but got a big sack on a Seattle third down with about two minutes to go, then made two big first downs themselves to preserve the victory.

So the Pack is back in the NFC championship game for the third time in the last six seasons.

The line on last week's game opened with Green Bay favored by 4.5 points, dropped to -4 during the week, but went off at Packers -5. So the timing was everything for bettors, who either won with Green Bay by getting down early or pushed by waiting.

Also, that game sneaked over a total of 46 when the Seahawks scored the final points of the game five minutes into the fourth quarter.

Green Bay got out-gained by Seattle 375-344, the sixth time in the last ten games that's happened to the Packers. And yet they're 7-2 SU, 5-4 ATS over that span.

NFC West champion San Francisco, meanwhile, reached this NFC championship game by beating Minnesota in a divisional-round bout last Saturday 27-10. The 49ers drove their first possession of the game 61 yards to a touchdown but only led 14-10 at the half. San Francisco then won the second half 13-0 to secure the victory and the cover as a seven-point favorite.

Also, that game stayed under a total of 44.

So the Niners are back in the NFC championship game for the first time since the 2013 season.

San Francisco out-gained the Vikings last week 308-147, out-rushed Minnesota 186-21, held a 21-7 advantage in first downs and dominated time of possession by a 38:22 split.

The 49ers have now out-gained seven of their last eight opponents and out-rushed each of their previous five foes.

These teams just met seven weeks ago, football time, that 37-8 San Francisco shellacking of the Packers also at Levi's Stadium. The Niners scored a touchdown two minutes into that game, led 23-0 at the half and cruised from there for the easy win and the money as three-point chalk.

San Francisco out-gained Green Bay that night 339-198, and most of the Packers' yardage came in catch-up mode.

Also, that game played under a total of 48.

Packers-49ers By the Numbers

Green Bay only ranked 18th in the NFL this season in total offense at 346 YPG and 18th in total defense, allowing 353 YPG. But the Packers also ranked sixth in the time of possession at 31:28.

San Francisco ranked fourth in the league in offense at 381 YPG, second in defense, holding foes to just 282 YPG, and fifth in the time of possession at 31:37.

NFL Betting Trends

  • With last week's win/cover, Green Bay is 4-2 both SU and ATS this season against teams that made the playoffs.
  • Green Bay is 6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS on the road this season.
  • Green Bay is 3-1 ATS this season as an underdog.
  • Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers is 10-7 SU, 11-5-1 ATS over 17 career playoff starts.
  • San Francisco is 7-2 SU but only 4-4-1 ATS at home this season.
  • With last week's win/cover, San Francisco is 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS against teams that made the playoffs this season.
  • 49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo is 1-0 both SU and ATS over one career playoff start.

Common Opponents

These teams played three common opponents this season; Minnesota, Seattle, and Washington. Green Bay finished 4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS against those three foes, San Francisco 3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS.

Totals Report

  • Unders are 10-7 in Packers games this season, which are averaging 43 total points.
  • Totals are split 8-8-1 in 49ers games this season, which are averaging 48 points.
  • Unders are 6-2 so far this NFL post-season.

Packers at 49ers Prediction

San Francisco is just the much more impressive team in this match-up. The 49ers own the better running game and the much better defense, and usually, that's enough for us right there. Also, of San Francisco's 14 wins this season, nine came by at least nine points. Meanwhile, Green Bay's been playing with fire all season long. It's almost hard to figure how the Packers have gotten this far. The 49ers might not win this one by 29 points, but eight would suffice. We like San Francisco here.

Free Pick: 
Take the 49ers -7.5
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