Green Bay Packers at Oakland Raiders Preseason Pick

August 22, 8:00 PM EDT

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
Packers -3

Packers (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) vs. Raiders (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS)

The Packers take on the Raiders for a Week 3 NFL exhibition bout north of the border in Winnipeg Thursday night, but it's uncertain whether that Canadian crowd will see quarterbacks Aaron Rodgers or Derek Carr take any snaps. How are we playing this game with our free NFL pick?

NFL Betting Odds

Week 3's NFL betting odds opened Green Bay at around -1.5 over Oakland, with an over/under of 40.5 points. Early betting action then bumped the Packers to -3 and dipped the total to 39.5.

Packers vs. Raiders Set-Up

Green Bay opened its 2019 exhibition slate, its first under new Coach LaFleur, with a 28-26 win over Houston two weeks ago, then lost at Baltimore last Thursday 26-13. The Packers got out-played by the Texans, losing total yardage by a margin of 412-237, but won the turnover battle 4-1, creating a +14-point differential. Green Bay then also got out-played by the Ravens last week, losing total yardage 343-226, getting out-rushed 171-55.

Rodgers did not play in either game; in his place back-ups Tim Boyle, DeShone Kizer, and Manny Wilkins are a combined 29/54 passing for 333 yards and four touchdowns, without an interception.

As of this writing, it's uncertain as to whether Rodgers will play Thursday night as he deals with, fittingly, a sore back. With him, the Packers are probably good for an early score or two; without him, it's a whole different story.

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Oakland opened its exhibition season, its second under Coach Gruden, with a 14-3 win over the Rams, then won at Arizona last Saturday 33-26. The Raiders dominated the Rams, winning total yardage 407-190, racking up 36 first downs against 18 for Los Angeles, holding a 35/25 time of possession advantage. Oakland then jumped out to a 26-0 lead on the Cardinals and cruised from there, giving up a couple of very late, meaningless touchdowns that created a misleading final score.

Starting QB Derek Carr played one series against Arizona and threw a touchdown pass. Other than that, back-ups Mike Glennon and Nate Peterman are a combined 45/59 passing for 482 yards and three touchdowns, with two picks.

Carr is not expected to play much from here on out this pre-season, either, so expect Glennon and Peterman to continue their battle for the No. 2 spot on the depth chart Thursday night.

These teams met in the pre-season last year, a 13-6 Raiders win in Oakland. Rodgers didn't play that night, either, while Carr threw three passes. Consequently, that game played way under a total of 40 points.

NFL Betting Trends

  • Oakland is 5-1 both SU and ATS in one-plus exhibition seasons under Coach Gruden.
  • Underdogs on the NFL betting lines are 14-18 SU, 15-15-2 ATS so far this exhibition season.

Totals Report

  • Green Bay's win over Houston two weeks ago played over a total of 36 points, and last week's loss to Baltimore played over a total of 37.
  • Oakland's win over the Rams two weeks ago played under a total of 36 points while last week's win over Arizona played over a total of 40.
  • Unders are 17-15 so far this NFL exhibition season.

Packers vs Raiders Prediction 08/22/2019

Oakland without Carr might be a better team than Green Bay without Rodgers. The Packers, as usual, are having trouble running the ball, and their defense has allowed 755 yards through two exhibition games. Meanwhile, Coach Gruden is apparently trying to use these games to instill a winning atmosphere. We like the Raiders here, and we'll play them for the win on the NFL money line.

Free Pick: 
Take Oakland +115 (Moneyline)
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