Green Bay Packers at Kansas City Chiefs Week 9 Pick ATS

November 7, 4:25 PM EST

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
GB +7/KC -7

What was going to be an Aaron Rodgers-Patrick Mahomes showdown is now a Jordan Love-Mahomes affair when the Packers battle the Chiefs Sunday afternoon at Arrowhead. The line on this game started out with KC favored by less than a field goal; now, with Rodgers out on that stupid sick list, the Chiefs are favored by more than a touchdown. How are we playing this game with our free NFL betting pick?

NFL Betting Lines

The Week 9 NFL betting odds opened Kansas City at -2.5 over Green Bay, with an over/under of right around 54.5. But upon the news about Rodgers, the betting action then zoomed KC five points, to -7.5, and dropped that total 6.5 points (!), to 48.

Packers Betting Preview

Green Bay is 7-1 on the season after knocking off the previously-undefeated Cardinals in Arizo-na two Thursdays ago, 24-21. The Packers, playing without WR Adams, the best in the Game, spotted the Cards the first seven points of the game, then scored twice in the second quarter to lead 10-7 at the half. Green Bay then scored the first seven points out of the locker room, later let Arizona get within three points and the Packers' 5-yard line in the final seconds but stole victory from the jaws of defeat with a wonderful interception in the end zone. Green Bay out-gained Arizona 335-334, out-rushed the Cardinals 151-74, dominated time of possession by a 38:22 split, and won the turnover battle 3-0. The Packers have now out-gained and out-rushed five of their last six opponents. They’re also 7-0 both SU and ATS since that face-slapping loss to New Orleans to open this season. However, Green Bay will play this game without Rodgers; 2nd-year pro Jordan Love, who did some very nice things in college at Utah State, will make his first NFL start Sunday. At 7-1, Green Bay owns the top spot in the NFC playoff standings, leading 7-1 Arizona by the head-to-head tie-breaker.

More Picks: Broncos vs. Cowboys 11/7/21

Chiefs Betting Preview

Meanwhile, Kansas City is 4-4 on the season after holding off the 2-6 Giants Monday night 20-17. The Chiefs, playing as 10.5-point favorites, took the early lead with a touchdown midway through the first quarter and led 14-10 at the half. They then fell down 17-14 early in the fourth but kicked a pair of field goals, the second with a minute to go, and held on to avoid what would have been an embarrassing defeat. But KC never really threatened to cover that double-digit spread. The Chiefs out-gained New York 368-300 and won the time of possession by a 35:25 split. But they also turned the ball over twice - they've been doing a lot of that this season - and got flagged for 103 yards worth of penalties. Kansas City has now out-gained and out-rushed four of its eight opponents this season. At 4-4, the Chiefs trail the first-place Raiders by a game and a half in the AFC West, with a trip to Vegas next week. These two teams last met two seasons ago, a 31-24 Packers victory also at Arrowhead. Rodgers quarterbacked Green Bay that night against Matt Moore, who was great in place of an injured Mahomes, for KC.

NFL Betting Trends

  • Home teams are just 56-63 SU, 51-67 ATS in the NFL this season.
  • Favorites are 74-48 SU, 54-67 ATS in the NFL this season.
  • Green Bay is 5-10-1 SU, 5-11 ATS its last 16 games without Rodgers.

Totals Report

The Under is 6-2 in Packers games this season, which are averaging 45 total points. Totals are split 4-4 in Chiefs games this season, which are averaging 54 points. The Under is 66-54 in the NFL this season.

Packers at Chiefs Odds, Tips, Free Pick 11/7/21

Kansas City just is not the team it was the last couple of seasons. The Chiefs can beat teams like the Giants, Washington, and Eagles, but they didn't look good against the Titans, Bills, or Chargers. As for Green Bay, apparently, we've got a lot more faith in Love, Coach LaFleur, and the Packers running game than most. We like Green Bay plus those points here.

Free Pick: 
Take the Packers +7