Green Bay Packers at Arizona Cardinals Point Spread & Free Pick

October 28, 8:20 PM EDT

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
GB +6/ARI -6

The NFL offers up a marquee match-up for this week’s edition of Thursday night football when the undefeated Cardinals take on the one-loss Packers in Glendale.

The big news heading into this game is the Green Bay wide receiver situation, after placing both Davante Adams and Allen Lazard on the sick list earlier this week. And that news had a signifi-cant effect on the betting line, as Arizona is now favored by almost a full touchdown. How are we playing this game with our free NFL betting pick?

NFL Betting Lines

The Week 8 NFL betting odds opened Arizona as a 3.5-point favorite over Green Bay, with an over/under of right around 52.5. Early betting action then steamed the Cardinals to -6.5 and dropped that total to 50.5, with the news of the Packers wide receiver situation.

Packers NFL Betting Preview

Green Bay rides a six-game winning streak into Thursday night after beating Washington last week 24-10. The Packers drove the opening possession of the game 75 yards to a touchdown, let the Team tie the score at 7-7 a few minutes later but scored again just before halftime to lead 14-7 into the locker room. Green Bay then scored the first 10 points of the second half and held on from there for the victory and the cover as a 9.5-point favorite. The Packers actually got out-gained by Washington 430-304, out-rushed 195-57, and lost time of possession by a 33:27 split. But Green Bay got lucky when the refs took a Washington touch-down away in the third quarter and won the turnover battle 2-1, creating a +7 points differential. Last week was the first time in five games the Packers got out-gained and/or out-rushed. At 6-1 overall, Green Bay leads the NFC North by two and a half games over second-place Min-nesota.

As mentioned above, the Packers might be down their top two receivers for this game. And yet somehow, Green Bay is 6-0 over the last couple of seasons without Adams.

Cardinals NFL Betting Preview

Arizona, meanwhile, is 7-0 on the season after disposing of Houston last week 31-5. The Cardi-nals spotted the Texans the first five points of the game but led 17-5 at the half. Arizona then won the second half 14-0 and covered the spread as a 20-point favorite. The Cardinals out-gained Houston 397-160, out-rushed the Texans 172-42, and won time of pos-session by a 34:26 split. Arizona has now out-gained six of its seven opponents this season and out-rushed four of its sev-en foes. At 7-0 for the first time since the team was in St. Louis, the Cardinals lead the NFC West by a game and a tie-breaker over the 6-1 Rams. On the Arizona injury front WR DeAndre Hopkins is listed as questionable with a sore hamstring and defensive end JJ Watt is iffy with a sore shoulder. These teams last met three seasons ago, a 20-17 Cardinals upset victory at Lambeau Field. Josh Rosen quarterbacked Arizona that day against that Rodgers guy for Green Bay.

The Cardinals have beaten the Packers three times in a row.

More Picks: Troy at Coastal Carolina Prediction

NFL Betting Trends

Home teams are just 50-54 SU, 46-58 ATS in the NFL this season. Favorites are 67-40 SU, 50-57 ATS in the NFL this season. Over the last season-plus, Thursday night home teams are just 10-11 SU and 6-15 ATS.

Totals Report

Unders are 5-2 in Packers games this season, which are averaging 45 total points. Unders are 4-3 in Cardinals games this season, which are averaging 48 points. After going 8-5 last week, The Under is 58-47 in the NFL this season.

Packers vs. Cardinals Prediction ATS

Both these teams are a bit banged-up so bettors might want to check late injury reports before getting down on this game. QB Murray gets a lot of ink for Arizona, but the Cardinals also rank fourth in the league in defense, and they're out-rushing opponents by 21 yards per game. Mean-while, Green Bay is getting out-rushed by 19 YPG. And in the NFL, teams that win the ground battles cover the spread about 65 percent of the time. So while we don't like going along with the betting flow, we're giving the points here with Arizona.  

Free Pick: 
Take Arizona -6