NFL FOOTBALL PICKS ATS - FREE WEEKLY EXPERT PREDICTIONS

Neither of these teams is playing well right now but the Colts still have a legitimate shot at the playoffs. Miami's season ended several weeks ago. In their last 6 losses the Dolphins are allowing an average of 32 ppg. Indy was routed by Pittsburgh and Jacksonville before last week's tough loss. If the Colts open up the offense, they should be able to make plays against a team that is just waiting for the season to end.

Some may figure that this is a good match up for the Bucs' offense with the Bears ranking 26th in run defense, but they've shown signs of turning it around holding their last two opponents to 3.6 or less yards per carry. Chicago has also gone under the radar with most with their past defense ranking third in the league allowing just 216 yards passing per game. The offense is an entirely different story for the Bears. They've scored a game high 21 points in their last five averaging 18 per game and on the season this unit has scored greater than 23 points just twice. They'll face a defense that has allowed 27 points per game at home, but they've improved on their scoring defense over their last four at Raymond James Stadium allowing 20.25 PPG. That number drops even more when you remove the 6 points scored by the Giants on fumble return on the last play of the game. Tampa Bay's problem has been with turnovers with 21 on the season and short fields and pick 6's skews their defensive scoring stats. That may not come into play with the Bears coming up with just 14 takeaways this season.

Six of the previous eight meetings between these heated rivals have been decided by 3 points or less including the earlier game this season. I don't see history repeating itself this week. Baltimore has been outscored 69-20 in the past two games as injuries have finally kept the team from fielding a competitive roster, especially on offense. HC John Harbaugh's teams always compete but the talent just isn't there. Pittsburgh is marching toward a playoff spot and can't afford a slipup here. Roethlisberger and the passing offense will be just too much for the Ravens to handle.

There is nothing on the line in this game for either team except for pride, which could actually set-up a pretty entertaining matchup. I look for both Stafford and Brees to light things up through the air in a game that goes OVER the current 50.5-point total line.

There are the legitimate playoff teams in the NFC and the ones in the NFC East fighting to get into the playoffs. Arizona is still not in a position where it can takes its foot off the gas as one of the top two seeds in the NFC so look for the Cardinals to continue to roll in a road victory that easily covers the 3.5-point spread.

The offense has been a problem for Atlanta failing to reach 20 points in a game over their last three, but they played a couple of good units (Minnesota and Carolina) in that stretch and should find the going easier this week. The Jaguars have the 30th ranked scoring defense allowing 27.5 points per game while not facing the most daunting schedule. On the other side of the line the jaguar offense has been impressive in recent weeks raking up 380 or more yards in their last three points and with some help from the defense lighting up the scoreboard for 38 points per game over the three games. They'll face an Atlanta defense that has allowed 26.25 points per game in their last four and has looked tired and uninterested last week against Carolina who got out to a 28-0 lead in the first half and coasted in the second of a 38-0 spanking.

Both teams find themselves losers of two in a row and three of their last four. The difference is in the quality of opponents. The Vikings two losses came against the 11-2 Cardinals on the road and at home against the fast rising 8-5 Seahawks. The Bears dropped back to back games that both were played at Soldier Field against the 4-9 49ers and the 6-7 Redskins. An important stat to consider is Chicago's run defense which ranks 30th for yards per carry allowing 4.7 and 26th for rushing yards per game with 125.7 allowed per game. Excluding their Week 1 loss to San Francisco, Minnesota's losses have come against teams that can stop the run and make them one dimensional on offense. The Bears are unlikely to be one of those teams. The point spread is on the high side and it is a divisional game, but the visitor has nothing to play for and the Vikings have proven that they can extend the margin with six of their eight wins by 6 or more points.

Kansas City, like the Jets, controls their own fate on the road to the playoffs. They host the Browns and Raiders in the next 2 weeks and can't afford to overlook the Ravens. Under HC John Harbaugh, Baltimore always plays hard but they are very limited right now. I expect the Chiefs to control the clock with their ground game and quick-passing attack. The Ravens are -12 in TOs while KC is +12 and I look for the Chiefs to convert some TOs into points and to get a tough cover on the road.

These teams are going in very opposite directions. The Cowboys had slim hopes when Romo returned and despite the mediocrity of their division, they haven't been able to make any strides. The Jets won't win the AFC East but are in control of their own destiny where the wild card is concerned. They host the Patriots next week but HC Todd Bowles will not allow this talented team to look ahead to that huge matchup. They have to take care of Dallas first and I expect their offense and defense to be too much for the Cowboys to handle. The small spread helps also.

This is obviously a must-win game for the Giants given their current slide, but I also believe it is a game they will win given the current form of Miami. Lay the point and a half on the current spread as New York finally finds a way to play all four quarters on Monday night.

The Browns rank in the bottom 5 of every major defensive category and most of the offensive ones. The 49ers aren't a great team by any means but their recent recipe for success (conservative offense, tough defense) has netted them 2 wins in their last 4 games. With injured QB Colin Kaepernick's status up in the air after the season, Gabbert is taking advantage of a second chance. If he plays mistake-free football, the 49ers should get an easy win. If he starts committing TOs, the Browns will be in the game. I'm banking on the former and expect San Francisco to get another win this Sunday.

Despite their early-season woes, the Seahawks appear to be peaking, especially on offense. They won't win their division but they should secure a wild-card berth and will be a very tough out for whoever they play against. The Ravens season ended weeks ago and they are just playing out the string. They should play hard for HC John Harbaugh but Seattle is just too strong for them, on both sides of the ball. I expect the Seahawks to emerge from this game with a 4-game winning streak thanks to the passing of Wilson and the play of the defense.

Neither of these teams will make the playoffs but Detroit is still competing. They are playing hard for HC Jim Caldwell whose days with the team may be numbered. St. Louis isn't putting up any fight to save HC Jeff Fisher's job as 3 of their last 5 losses have been by 24 points each. I think the Lions will get the job done offensively and that their defense can contain Gurley to get this snake-bit franchise another win.

I went with the Chiefs last season in the AFC West to cash in on their early +160 odds as favorites and I am going chalk this season as well with the Raiders as my top play at +155 betting odds. The value in this number may be at its peak as more and more bettors jump on Oakland’s bandwagon.

Kansas City Chiefs (+300): Getting a mega deal and coming off Super Bowl glory might lead some to expect the Chiefs to lose their razor’s edge this season. I wouldn’t be so sure. Nothing has occurred to appreciably alter their recipe for success—a formula that is built to deliver time and again. They might not be as hungry as other contenders on this list, but is anyone really questioning whether they’ll have a good season and be a factor in the postseason again this year? The thing about the Chiefs is that what they do well isn't something that is going to inexplicably go away. Having a winner at QB, a stocked cast of burners and a playmaking defense that is getting better doesn't just suddenly all fall flat without a good reason, and there doesn't appear to be one.

Baltimore Ravens (+325) Seeing Lamar Jackson and the Ravens come up short two seasons ago in the playoffs after a super-strong finish to the season was one thing. Seeing them fall badly to the Titans at home as huge favorites coming off a 14-win season in the divisional round of the playoffs is the last thing we remember this team for. It was definitely a horrible look. But one slipup, however bad it was, doesn't erase the fact that up until that point, they looked to be the class of the league. With an axe to grind this season, something tells me not to count out this group. Granted, even if they have another huge regular season where they’re blowing almost everyone out, it will be nervous-time come the playoffs. But look at it this way, if they had gone on and cleaned everyone’s clock en route to winning the Super Bowl, the price would be so low on them now that it wouldn’t be worth it.

Indianapolis Colts (+1100) Granted, watching Philip Rivers last season didn't inspire much confidence. Nevertheless, a change of scenery and less dysfunction around him could do wonders. It's a really packed roster on both sides of the ball, and Rivers, long hungry for some postseason distinction, will have a ton to work with on offense. Working behind a much better line with more continuity could really take this offense to another level, and I expect some good things from Indy this season. It’s not just the boost they get at quarterback, as other areas of this team are filled with players coming into their own.

Tennessee Titans (+1400) This could be one of the better value picks on the board. A few things we saw last season were not mirages—coach Vrabel’s handiwork with this bunch, Tannehill lifting the offense to new heights, and the late-season rampaging of dominant running back Derrick Henry, who put this team on his back only to be stopped by eventual Super Bowl champion Kansas City in the AFC Championship. I’m not sure what’s behind the sentiment that they will fade this season, but I wouldn’t be so quick to relegate them to the scrap heap just yet. Sure, it might not be easy to see them getting to the big one, as they had to scrap and claw to get into the playoffs, then catching a nice wave of momentum. Still, if anyone else slips and they build on the form they showed late, they look to be a definite contender.