NFL FOOTBALL PICKS ATS - FREE WEEKLY EXPERT PREDICTIONS

Dallas has played food football in 2016 but I see this as a big step up in class for them. Dalton is better than any QB they have seen so far, as is Green. Cincinnati must get their ground game going and I believe they can get positive results in this matchup. The Bengals know they have to keep Elliott in check and I expect that to be their main priority. They will want Prescott to try and make plays from the pocket while they give him different looks on defense. With the Steelers and Ravens both at 3-1, this is a game the Bengals can’t lose.

The Bills are poised to be the sexier play after they pulled off a historic shutout win of the New England Patriots in Foxboro, last week and this is reflected in the heavy action on the Bills. Los Angeles has won three games in a row but that narrative pales in comparison to what Buffalo achieved and thus the favorable play here is the Bills with the points according to most. However, Los Angeles has yielded some impressive results in their own right, most notably a defensive win against Seattle where the Rams outdueled the Hawks 9-3. While many are expecting a defensive contest in light of the offensive struggles for both teams, this may be the game where both outfits finally showcase some proficiency on the offensive end of the ball.

This game shapes up to be a score fest with both QBs chucking it most of the game. Fitzpatrick has made several gaffes on the year but does average 253 passing ypg. If he gets protection, he should be able to deliver some big throws. Big Ben threw 4 passes of 20 yards or longer last week and connected on 3 of them for 116 yards and 3 scores. If the Steelers get up early, they won’t let up. Conversely, New York will go to RB Matt Forte if they get a lead but only if he is making positive yardage. The number is less than 7 converted TDs and I like this game to go over the number.

There is not a team in all the NFL with higher stock right now than the Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings defeated the New York Giants on Monday night remaining undefeated at 4-0. Almost always the winner of a featured primetime game is prone to an overreaction next week, especially when that team boasts an impressive record and resume season-to-date. Minnesota has taken down Green Bay and Carolina as to round off some of their more noteworthy victims. As a result, the Vikings are going to see heavy action from most of the public and the price reflects the market’s play on general perception of this team. The Vikings are likely spotting more points than necessary and this can also be chalked up to the fact Minnesota is playing this one at home as well. Houston is 3-1 for a reason, many should not be so quick to forget that Houston has plenty of weapons in their own right. However, regardless of whether Minnesota wins or not, the amount of takers willing to lay heavy juice on the Vikings outright is alarming enough to lay the team certainly in an against-the-spread scenario. Expect the Texans to keep this one close.

The Eagles are 22-6 SU following their bye week and I don’t expect that to change this week. This game looks similar to last week’s DEN/TB game in that an expected big visiting favorite comes in with a low number. Philadelphia visits Washington next week but I don’t expect them to overlook a desperate Lions squad that needs a win badly to stop the bleeding.

Both teams are in desperate need of a win to avoid that dreaded 1-4 early hole, but you would have to think that Arizona should be able to rise to the occasion to get one even if Palmer is out of the lineup. The 49ers are a bad team and one that appears destined to only get worse as the season wears on.

That being said, I am still not all that thrilled going with Arizona as a road favorite given what I have seen from this offense so far. That could set the stage for a division rivalry grinder that once again stays UNDER the 42-point total line like it has for most of the recent head-to-head meetings in San Francisco.

The Chief have already struggled in their first road game this year and they are coming into a very hostile environment this Sunday night at Heinz Field against a Steelers’ team looking to take out some frustration from last week’s loss.

The betting public continues to bet down the spread in this matchup, but that only makes Pittsburgh an even more attractive play. Lay the 5.5 points and bet on the Steelers to quickly return to form in front of the home-town crowd.

Last Sunday the Giants demonstrated many of the traits that have led to three-straight losing seasons, while the Vikings rallied as a team in the face of devastating injuries to keep their winning streak alive.

I am not about to bet on New York turning things around or Minnesota slowing down. Betting on sports most times dictates that you keep on riding the hot hand until it cools and that is what I am doing this Monday night with my “best bet” pick that the Vikings cover at home.

This looks like a trap game for Denver this week but I’m not buying it. Coming off a big conference road win last week, the Broncos won’t take the Buccaneers lightly. Winston does commit TOs but he has some weapons on offense, namely WRs Mike Evans and Adam Humphries (19 catches, 232 yards, 1 TD last week). They know their run defense hasn’t been up to par but expect DC Wade Phillips to come up with a plan to contain Sims, a dangerous runner in his own right. Some questioned how Siemian would respond in his first road contest against a perennial playoff team last Sunday and he answered all the questions. The line is only a FG and I expect the more talented Broncos to get another cover on the road this week.

Very rarely do we favor a road favorite spotting points to a home pooch while also going with the public for intent and purposes. However, we are not by any means suggesting this a qualitative play but we will go forth and lean on the Panthers in this one because they simply have the offense that Atlanta’s defense will probably have difficulty in solving. In fact, Carolina’s 1-2 start has made the Panthers ever more available but look at who they lost to: the defending Super Bowl Champions, the team that beat them, the Denver Broncos by just one point on the road to kick off the season and the undefeated Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings are the defending NFC North champions and the game was once again very close. Carolina is probably the best 1-2 team you will ever come across and this contest will be a prime market to showcase their supremacy which hasn’t lost a step by any means.

Detroit has won the last 6 matchups between these two clubs and is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 overall meetings. It has been almost a calendar year since Chicago won a home game and I don’t see that streak being broken this week. The Lions can pass the ball while the Bears defense has struggled to contain 3 QBs with a combined 10 NFL starts before this week. Stafford is a long-time starter and should pick apart this secondary. I expect Chicago to put up a fight against a division rival but their dearth of talent at several positions will doom them in the end.

The assumption here is that Ravens undefeated streak will finally come to an end be that the Birds are finally facing a team of consequence even if it is in Baltimore. Furthermore, Oakland has had this team’s number look no further than last year. When you couple this narrative with the fact Oakland is undefeated on the road this year, the Raiders look like a sure-fire play. Nevertheless, when we see the public heavily favoring a pooch something needs to set off an alarm. Generally, dogs are never played on that’s why they are underdogs but when we see significant action on a pooch, usually that signifies a trap play fading the favorite. Baltimore is not giving away much here and if they were to win yet again it would likely be a nail-biter. Baltimore will get it done once again.

This almost becomes a must-win game at home for Cincinnati as one of the top teams in the AFC, but Miami is not about to make things easy after putting together a solid performance on offense the past two weeks.

My first thought was to go with the Dolphins and the seven points on the road, but I think that both of these teams will score enough points to take the total OVER BetOnline’s current 44.5-point betting line.

Given the early numbers for both team’s gun-slinging quarterbacks you would expect an old-fashioned shootout on Monday night at the Superdome, especially since it is pretty obvious that neither team is going to scare anyone with their defense.

This makes it very tempting to test BetOnline’s hefty 53.5-point total line in this game, but I am going to still go with New Orleans minus the three points at home. This Saints definitely have their problems on both sides of the ball, but they also have the ability to elevate their game in prime time matchups.

Chicago appears to be a team that is in serious trouble, while the Cowboys are playing with a new-found air of confidence despite the fact that Tony Romo remains out of the lineup. I am just not sure that the actual gap between the two teams justifies BetOnline’s seven-point spread.

Desperation can sometimes lead to inspired play and the Bears might actually be better off if Hoyer gets the start. Look for the Cowboys to get the SU win in Big D, but I am taking the Bears to cover with the points.

Early money in rolled in on the Eagles in this contest and since then the public has shifted their focus toward the Steelers who are now spotting just above a field goal. Philadelphia has the hot hand right now and they are the benefactors of getting the Steelers at home. Initially we anticipated an overreaction to materialize in the direction of Philly, given their impressive result fostered on Monday night. No such occurrence has taken shape and not too long ago last year we saw Pittsburgh offered in a similar market when they visited the New York Jets. Almost all were on the Steelers laying away points and the Jets won the contest outright. It wouldn’t be any surprising if this course of events were to occur again. While everyone is expecting a shootout, we will once again lay that heavy lean banking on the defenses perhaps overcompensating to keep this contest a game of possessions.

Defense almost always beats offense when the chips are down. San Francisco has no semblance of offense, while Seattle’s defense looks like their traditional Legion of Boom selves. There is a reason why Seattle has dominated this series as of late, they simply play a better brand of football than San Francisco. Seattle’s offensive approach is traditional yet methodical and we would like to imagine the Hawks can generate success against this extremely porous San Francisco defense. Conversely, the 49ers won’t have a response as their offense has been marred by inconsistency. In addition, the Seahawks will likely get their starting running back to return for this game on Sunday. His name is Thomas Rawls. Rawls has emerged as a revelation for the Seahawks and he has established himself as the primary option in the post-Beast Mode aka Marshawn Lynch era. San Francisco’s secondary is generally weak, Lockett should feast. The difference in results for San Francisco when facing Los Angeles and Carolina demonstrates how vulnerable the Niners are against experienced and prolific quarterbacks. This game should be no different.

Both of these teams need this win as both penciled this matchup for a victory when the schedule came out. The Titans are a better club than they were in 2015 but the offense isn’t producing points. Oakland is scoring lots of points but has allowed 500+ yards of offense in each of their first 2 outings, the first team since the ‘67 Falcons to achieve that dubious mark. The Raiders failed as a home favorite last week but have been a good road dog in recent years. I see their offense scoring just enough points to get a big road cover this week.

Arizona is clearly the better team but will have some issues to deal with. They are travelling cross country (never easy for west coast teams) for an early Sunday game and have to deal with a very mobile QB. The Bills did score 31 points last week against a decent defense but I expect the Cards to be ready. I don’t see WRs Marquise Goodwin and Greg Salas hauling in 70+ yard TD receptions again and Watkins will have a very tough test in CB Patrick Peterson. The Cardinals have a very balanced offense but can burn teams with the passing game if they see a favorable matchup. I see the Arizona WRs having a big day against the Bills’ CBs and expect the visitor to get a cover on the road in this contest.

The Redskins appear to be reeling right now while New York’s big offseason investment on the defensive side of ball appears to be paying off. They shut down the Saints last week, a team that gauged them for 608 yards and 7 TDs only a season ago. Manning is playing well and he won’t force the action Beckham Jr.s way if he isn’t open. I look for the Giants to get a big win at home this week and move to 3-0 on the year.