NFL FOOTBALL PICKS ATS - FREE WEEKLY EXPERT PREDICTIONS

With the expected absence of starting QB Marcus Mariota, it’s logical to expect a lot of runs by RBs DeMarcus Murray and Derrick Henry. That strategy would go against the Dolphins strength this season. Miami has not allowed a team to exceed 3.1 yards per carry and only the Jets have surpassed 100 yards (103 yards on 3.0 YPC). On the other side of the ball, the best word to describe the Fish is putrid. The last two especially, that has seen the offense amass a combined 225 yards against the Jets and 186 against the Saints! Both teams’ pass defense hasn’t impressed, but with a back-up in for the Titans at QB and Jay Cutler’s struggles for the Fish the UNDER seems like the logical play here.

Despite San Francisco not winning a game yet this year, the Niners have been a cash cow against the spread. San Francisco is 3-1 in against the spread markets. In fact, San Francisco is 1-5 SU in their previous six outings but are 5-1 ATS. This reveals that San Francisco has been offered with inflated numbers to entice action be that no one wants a part of them. However, the market is due for correction and seemingly it is coming soon given the fact the public are finally stepping in on them.

Indianapolis is a tough sell but they are a much more difficult test to take on its own field. In fact, the Colts are 2-1 at Lucas Oil Stadium in their last three outings. Their sole defeat? An overtime match against the same team San Francisco fell to last week, Arizona. The biggest problem surrounding Indy is the absence of Andrew Luck as he is undoubtedly the engine that drives this football team. Unfortunately, the Colts will be without him until November and while he is gone this team will likely encounter many troubles. However, given the fact the Colts get this at home they will get an opponent that may still be jet-lagged from trans-continental travel. Given the fact San Francisco is one of the weakest teams in the league on their best day, we have to like Indianapolis’ chances in a virtual pick-em here.

Buffalo has been very opportunistic in 2017 and the defense is a big reason why. Freed from the ill-suited 3-4 of Rex Ryan, the defense is back to their pre-Ryan days of getting after the QB and forcing TOs. Dalton has thrown 4 interceptions and lost 2 fumbles on the year so the Bills will look to force him into more. Buffalo has done well in this matchup and is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings with the Bengals and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 visits. Having a weapon like PK Steven Hauschka (4 53+-yard FGs last 2 weeks) could help the Bills in a close game late.

The Browns maybe down two of their top four receivers for this game from a group that may have been the weakest unit in the league at full strength! The Jets passing offense hasn’t been a strength with a season game high of 233 yards, so they’re likely to stay with a clock eating running game. Key stat: Each club has scored greater than 20 points just once this season.

The Patriots bounced back from an opening day loss to Kansas City as heavy home favorites with a 16-point victory over New Orleans on the road. The expectation for the same kind of turnaround this Thursday night against another NFC South opponent is pretty high with the betting public as they continue to drive the spread higher. I have New England covering as well, but I am taking the bait on the OVER against an already inflated 56-point total line. I have both of these teams lighting up the scoreboard in this prime time matchup.

You have to like what you have seen from Washington early in the season on both sides of the ball; however going on the road and covering the 6.5 points against the most balanced team in the league will be a challenge to say the least. Even though the game is not until Monday night, I would lock in a bet on Kansas City at this current betting line with the half point weighing heavily in favor of the home team.

The Colts needed everything to go their way just to get past Cleveland last Sunday and this team is still in a world of trouble on offense with Luck out of the lineup. As bad as Indianapolis has looked so far, I still do not trust the Seahawks to cover such a big spread at home given just how inconsistent they have played over the first three weeks in every phase of the game. I expect both teams to dial back the offense on Sunday night to its regular level in a game that stays UNDER the current 41.5-point total line.

This game features 2 teams coming off losses. New York is desperate as a 0-3 team but they have holes that may be too big to fill. I don’t see their o-line suddenly flourishing or a strong run game materializing. Both QBs can make mistakes but I like Winston at home this week. I think Tampa Bay will stick with the run and put him in better down-and-distance situations. The Giants are reeling and I don’t see them recovering this week against a legitimate playoff contender like the Bucs.

Both teams got big wins last week. The Jags are trying to become a legitimate threat in the AFC South and have looked great in 2 games and awful in the other. By sticking with the run, they are keeping pressure off of Bortles and he responded with one of his best days as a pro last week. The Jets are in total rebuild and feature young players everywhere in their lineup. I expect the Jaguar defense to put the clamps on a below-average NY offense and for the running game to lead them to another big road victory.

Generally speaking, the stock in Detroit is far elevated compared to that of Minnesota. Though the two teams enter with identical records, the body of work by the Lions is more proficient from a market perspective. Detroit has been more undervalued be that they own two outright wins as an underdog. Though the Lions failed to cover a three-point line against Atlanta on Sunday in a four-point loss, the market has yet to catch-up to the Lions. This scenario maybe prime for that adjustment.

Minnesota’s offense is frightening. The Vikings own the second best passing attack in the league, as well as the second most productive offensive unit. Minnesota has some exceptional young playmakers across the board, most notably in wide-out Stefon Diggs and newcomer rushing back Dalvin Cook. In comparison, Detroit’s numbers have been more mediocre offensively and if they hope to get their rushing department up and running against Minnesota, they better think again. The Vikings own a top-five rushing defense and will smother any hopes of gashing the middle. Since Calvin Johnson retired from the Lions, the Motor City has been looking for a weapon to get this team to productive numbers offensively. The defense has failed to pick up the slack for the most part. While, Matthew Stafford may be the highest paid athlete in history after landing a new contract in the off-season, he is going to have his hands filled with the likes of Everson Griffen harassing him in the pocket.

The talk of the town is Dallas Cowboys and their vaunted offensive line. Such talent has been able to make the likes of running back Ezekiel Elliot an overnight superstar. However, Los Angeles has some premier talent in their rolls. First, bull rusher Todd Gurley who can very likely be the NFL’s next top-of-the league running back. Gurley, a Georgia product is a well-balanced and versatile playmaker. He is also complemented by another quality and high-caliber talent in wide receiver Sammy Watkins. Collectively with Jared Goff at quarterback, the Rams’ offense is on its way to being a very potent and methodical attack. As a whole, Dallas in Big D is a position many takers like. In such scenarios, many that are keen on the Cowboys can expect to a premium if they wish to take action. Nevertheless, the market is enticing action on the Cowboys and sets up a perfect fade opportunity to go the other way with the Rams. Not only can Los Angeles cover, they can potentially win this contest. For a majority of the time, we have seen the Rams as a marginal pooch over the span of the 2017-2018 season. Now, they are offered at their best price so far. Tremendous upside on the Rams.

Over the past few years, Houston has dominated this matchup but I see a different outcome this week. Tennessee’s offense can still run the ball but their passing game has noticeably improved. Houston’s defense held a weak Cincinnati team but was overmatched vs. the Jaguars and Patriots. Watson has made some big plays but also his share of rookie mistakes. I expect him to make a few more miscues in this one and for the Titans offense to be the star of the show in this division tilt.

The Panthers offense has been dismal this season averaging a meagre 15 points per game. They’ve yet to surpass 300 yards in total offense in a game and their pass blocking has been atrocious without Kalil allowing 10 sacks in their last two games! You know that no matter who the Pats face Brady will be able to put points on the board and the Panthers defensive play last week wouldn’t suggest that will change anytime soon. I rarely lay more than 3 points, but I believe this game sets up perfectly to lay the big number. The Panthers managed a combined 22 points against the Saints and the Bills and the Patriots just hung 36 on a good Houston defense. The same number they scored in the week before against the Saints. New England extends the margin here and gets the point spread cover.

Chicago brings some solid momentum into this Thursday night’s game, but it has just one SU victory in the last seven games between these two bitter rivals. The Packers have not always looked like an elite NFL team this season. However they continue to find ways to win, especially when playing at home. The lean in this one is towards Green Bay covering the touchdown spread, but I am betting that the total on Thursday night stays UNDER the current 45.5-point line.

Both of these teams have been struggling to put points on the board and while I do expect Prescott to play on Monday night there is some concern with that bad ankle. It may take another week or two for each of these teams to get back on track, but when you take into consideration recent trends for both teams combined with current form it does sets the stage for another grinder that stays UNDER the current 47-point line.

Oakland’s fast start out of the gate along with its proven ability to cover on the road the past few seasons makes the Raiders a very attractive play on Sunday night. Adding some value to the betting odds for this inter-conference clash is the AFC West’s perfect 2-0 record both SU and ATS against the NFC East this season. I am banking on the Raiders extending this streak to three as my ‘best bet’ pick in this game.

The stock in the Bengals is through the floor at this point as their offense looks anemic and their defense looks out of sort. The Packers opened as a 7.5-home choice which suggests that this is a favorite-laden market. However, there are some variables that need to be taken into account. First, the Bengals enter off a longer period of rest. Cincinnati has had 10 days to prepare for this game whilst the Packers have had three less given the scheduling. Furthermore, the Green Bay defense looks auspicious in its own right. Atlanta has produced a blueprint to dissect the Packers defensive operations as they were able to replicate success as they had in the 2017 NFL Championship Game. Cincinnati is a team that likes to employ a similar tactic to Atlanta in that they like to put the ball in their best playmakers’ hands. For Cincy, A.J Green is argued to be possibly be the best receiver in the game on a short list with a few other names. Atlanta’s Julio Jones is another one of those candidates and he has gone off against this Packers secondary. Look for Cincinnati to take notes and come in under this number.

Kansas City has won the last 6 matchups between these 2 teams and is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 visits. The Chiefs, like Denver and Oakland, are undefeated and can’t lose winnable games like this one. LA generally stays in games, thanks to Rivers, but usually ends up on the losing end of them as well. They have a big chore in front of them as I don’t believe they have the personnel to keep Hill, Kelce and Hunt in check throughout the whole game. It’s a low number and look for KC to notch their seventh-straight win over their divisional rival.

Miami catches a break as they don’t have to travel in the cold to play the Jets. Cutler was decent last week and doesn’t need to do more to lead his team to a win this week. A heavy dose of Ajayi early should set the tone and Cutler can then pick apart the secondary with his many weapons. New York is one of the three worst teams in the league and should be no match for their division rival. The number is less than a converted TD and I expect the Dolphins to go to 2-0 with another big road win.

The Panthers scored 23 points in Week one against a 49ers’ defense that was blown up for 41 points in on Thursday at home against the Rams. Carolina followed that game up with 10 points against an average Bills defense last week. Cam will now be without one of his top receivers TE Olsen and it be logical to expect that the passing game will suffer. The good thing for the Panthers is that they are playing fantastic defense allowing three points and 176 total yards to the Bills and three points to the 49ers on 166 OTY. The Saints come into this game with offensive line issues. They haven’t run the ball well this season averaging 70.5 yards per game on 3.71 yards a carry and that isn’t likely to improve against the Panthers front seven that has allowed 60 yards per game this campaign. Without a strong running attack, the Saints just don’t put a lot of points on the board scoring a total of 86 points (17.2 PPG) over their last five games that they rushed for fewer than 100 yards.