NFL FOOTBALL PICKS ATS - FREE WEEKLY EXPERT PREDICTIONS

There is no team in the NFL with a higher stock at the moment than the Minnesota Vikings. This proclamation is an appropriate superlative as this team wins at will and covers whilst doing so. In spite of this, the Vikings came into this contest with a very friendly price considering their opponent was beaten convincingly last week. The figure in itself speaks volumes and given the fact it has parked on a notorious underdog-friendly number, there is a good chance that Minnesota’s win streak will be coming to an end in this affair. Whilst you can grab the points on Carolina, it would by no means be overzealous to play them outright on the Money Line in this contest.

Thursday night’s matchup should be a good one with so much on the line for both teams. This division race looks like it is going right down to the wire between the top three teams in the NFC South so my automatic lean in this one is towards the home team. Atlanta needs this one just a little bit more and I think that will be reflected in the final score with a SU win that covers the tight 1.5-point spread.

Cincinnati is not going to be able to go toe-to-toe with Pittsburgh on the offensive side of the ball, so its only hope in this must-win game is to dial up its defense. This unit has played better in recent weeks and it might be able to contain the Steelers just enough to keep things respectable heading into the final quarter.

This is still a division game between two teams that know each other rather well. While I do not see Pittsburgh losing on Monday night, I do think that the Bengals can keep the scoring low enough on their own home field to set up a winning play on the UNDER 43.5 points.

The spread in this game opened at four points and it continues to climb with all the early money coming in on the red-hot Eagles. Most bettors would agree that you should always ride a hot hand until it cools and Philly is clearly the hottest hand in the league. On the other side of the equation, you have a desperate Seahawks team playing at home, where road wins do not come easy for opposing teams under any circumstances.

I still think that Philadelphia wins this game SU, but it is going to have to work for this one with Seattle covering with the 5.5 points.

The Giants season ended long ago but they still can be a worrisome opponent (ask KC). Manning and Carr will both be limited by the absences of their leading receivers and neither team runs the ball particularly well. As well, both teams did a great job rushing the QB in their last outings and while neither team is the ’85 Bears on defense, I see both defenses controlling this game. Therefore, I am inclined to lean to the Under in this matchup.

The Cardinals got a big win last week but they face a much better offense this Sunday. Goff is much better than the Jags QB Blake Bortles and his blossoming chemistry with Watkins makes the offense even better. If Woods returns, that gives the Rams 3 dependable targets for Goff against a secondary that has been vulnerable in most weeks. The earlier whitewash might not be a true reflection of the caliber of both teams but maybe it is. I like Los Angeles to get a lead and not only hold it, but build on it. Outside of the Minnesota loss, they have scored 26+ points in their last 5 wins. I look for them to make it 6 games with another big win.

While I certainly expect Los Angeles to win this game, the number is a little high for my liking. As such, I do think the Under in this contest is the way to go. Cleveland should be able to sustain some drives with their running attack, chewing up the clock in the process. I think the Chargers will have a tough time (again) getting their ground game going meaning Rivers will be asked to do all the heavy lifting. He has been up to the task lately (5 wins last 7 games) but this is a defense that has played very well in 2017 despite little to no help from the offense. The Browns have averaged less than 14 ppg over their last 8 contests and I don’t see them eclipsing that total this week. Both teams have played 7 of their 11 games under this number and I expect them to make that No. 8 this week.

Anytime we see the public gravitate toward the dog in the manner we are seeing them attack Detroit, the favorite sets up to be a quality play. Some will argue that Detroit is the better rested of the two teams. After all, the Lions have nearly a half of a week difference in terms of furlow when compared to Baltimore. However, targeting a team such as Detroit after a hard-fought loss and an extended period of time to marinade in the defeat makes them a prime let-down candidate. This is even more of a possibility given the fact this affair is in a place that is very hostile to visitors.

There was a reason many pundits like Baltimore to sneak into the post-season: their defense. Quite frankly, the Baltimore defense is playing at an exceptional level. The Lions won’t have answers for what will be thrown at them despite having some premium playmakers in their skill personnel. Baltimore is positioned to win big here.

Indianapolis got run over for 188 yards on 37 carries in their previous meeting, but the Colts have shored up their run defense since that game holding the opposition to fewer than 100 yards in four consecutive games. Their offense has been a problem though scoring 20 or fewer points in four of their last five games including a zero in their last against the Jaguars back in Indy. Jacksonville put up 27 points in the last meeting, but they had A. Hurns and M. Lee as starters which won't be the case this week. They were without RB L. Fournette, but Ivory had a huge game racking up 122 yards on nine carries. I don't see that happening this week. Sure Fournette may be able to break one off,  but the lack of a quality passing game should have both teams loading up the box and forcing the QBs to win this game. I don't feel that either team will have a lot of success in the aerial attack making this an easy call. 

Both of these teams have been extremely profitable as of late. The Vikings in particular have been continuously exceeding expectations on a weekly basis. The talk of the town is the play of quarterback Case Keenum. However, Minnesota is going into an environment conducive for the reigning MVP Matt Ryan to show why he earned such credentials. With all the hype and hyperbole surrounding Minnesota, we actually have a chance here to take back The Dirty Birds at a reduced price. Typically, you can expect to pay a premium to back the Falcons in ATL but in this rare instance, the books are begging for action on Atlanta. Take it while the odds are favorable. The Falcons spotting the points get our call.

Both of these teams are fighting for their lives in the NFC playoff race just to remain in contention for a wild card spot. The Redskins have the slight edge in momentum coming off last Thursday’s win in light of the Cowboys’ three-game slide, but neither team instills all that much confidence when it comes to picking a SU winner in Thursday night’s matchup.

I do believe that this game will remain close for all four quarters with both offenses having some success at putting points on the board. The lean is towards Dallas at home, but my ‘best bet’ pick is the OVER on the current 44-point total line.

Houston may be down, but it is not completely out of the wild card playoff race in the AFC given just how wide open things remain heading into the stretch run of the regular season. Baltimore is in the same boat given the current three-game gap in the AFC North with frontrunner Pittsburgh so you could probably put Monday night’s matchup in the ‘must win’ category for both teams. Given just how closely they do matchup against one another, I will take the Texans and the seven points on the road as my ‘best bet’ pick.

The idea of giving two touchdowns to Green Bay is hard to imagine under any conditions, but I think the oddsmakers are trying to bait the betting public with some of the inflated pointspreads on the board this week in the NFL. I am not taking that bait in my ‘best bet’ pick for Sunday night’s contest with Pittsburgh coming away with the win at home both SU and ATS.

This game features 2 teams going quickly in opposite directions. The Cards have dropped 3 of their last 4 and are on their 3rd QB of the season. Jacksonville sits atop the AFC South division and has what appears to be the best defense in football. Gabbert has been dumped as the starter by 2 franchises and I just don’t see him being successful this week. The Jaguars don’t score a ton of points but I see them scoring just enough to get another big win and cover this Sunday.

Take the Jaguars

I’m tempted to take the Rams in this spot with the Saints secondary injuries, but believe the total is the way to go here. The Rams couldn’t solve the Vikings defense last week, but they should get their share of points this week against the Saints who last week gave up 31 to the Skins. The Saints offense has put up 30 plus in three straight which is what they should be able to do again today.

Denver is out of the playoffs and team president John Elway even referred to his players as ‘soft’ after the Bengals loss. By firing McCoy and inserting former Raiders OC Bill Musgrave into his spot, he is looking to shake up the offense. Lynch will also be making his first start of the year so that is a lot of changes on offense in one week. Oakland’s playoff hopes are hanging by a thread but the offense does have the personnel to make a late run. While neither team is likely to make the playoffs, I’ll side with a Raiders team that is playing their first game in Oakland in 5 weeks and has the better offense.

With both teams coming off a bye, neither team can complain about a lack of rest or a long road trip. The Panthers have won 3 straight and are in a dogfight with New Orleans for the NFC South title. New York is likely out of the playoff hunt but is surpassing expectations with their surprising play. I just don’t think they have enough on both sides of the ball to stay with a Carolina team that is surging on both sides of the ball and get some of their key players back this week. The number is pretty low and I expect another road win for a Panthers team that is 4-1 SU/ATS away from home this year.

Both of these teams are now watching things completely slip away with their recent play. The Giants do have some momentum with last week’s upset at home, but they remain one of the most inconsistent teams from week to week. The Redskins are fading fast with just one SU win in their last five games, but they have still done a pretty good job of covering against the teams they are favored to beat.

The extra half point on the current touchdown spread remains a big concern, so while I have Washington finding a way to get past the Giants this Thursday night SU, I am taking those 7.5 points with a ‘best bet’ pick that New York covers.

The Cowboys were blown out on Sunday Night Football and be that national audiences witnessed this outcome, the effects of it are being seen in this market. Contrarily, far less saw the Bolts rout the Bills but the box score in itself was enough to generate a reaction. These two contrasting notions are heavily influencing this market in the build-up to the contest. However, the fact remains that Dallas is like Detroit in that it treats Thanksgiving as a special affair. With respect to the fact they get this one at home as well, the Cowboys were favored for a reason initially. If takers shop around they can probably locate a market where an additional point is on the table or the juice is reduced. If not, you can always lay a point to the Bolts. The Cowboys will take care of business this one and they also get the call outright.

After defeating the Los Angeles Rams in the manner which they did, the stock on the Vikings continue to reach a new plateau this season. Minnesota and New Orleans are the two most talked about teams in the NFC currently, that makes them a prime fade target this week be that they are prone to be overvalued and subject to a let-down.

Against the spread, Minnesota has been a cash cow as well. The Vikings have won five in a row against the spread and most of this is due to Minnesota being undervalued by the public against teams they were marginal favorites against. In this scenario the opposite looks to be the case. The Vikings look too easy in this market and usually when that is the case, it means that a correction from the books is coming. The fact remains, Detroit treats Thanksgiving like its Super Bowl and the fact they get this one at home makes them even more dangerous. The Lions outright get the call.