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Sunday Sep 13, 2020

It is always a challenge finding perceived value in the Week 1 lines, but even more so this season with not even some preseason action to analyze. I'm going to go with the trend in this series, which has seen seven or fewer points decide the last three games. The weather forecast is calling for a chance of rain and winds up to 15 MPH, so the run game should play a big part in today's game. No question the Bills had the better rushing game last season but the Jets offensive line has been retooled, and I still have faith in RB L.Bell returning to form. I expect another close match taking the points as the way to bet this.


Free Pick: Take the Jets +7 -130

Friday Sep 04, 2020

I really like the Bears +3 at Bovada potential with Foles at quarterback, and I also think this match-up against the Colts is favorable. I would expect a low scoring game with the Bears controlling things late.

Free Pick: Take the Bears +3

Thursday Apr 23, 2020

Sunday Feb 02, 2020

San Francisco will try to control this game with its running game and its defense. Kansas City, on the other hand, will just try to outscore the 49ers. Most importantly, though, as far as betting the total goes, this game looks like it should be close throughout, which leads us to think about the under. The two recent Super Bowls that played under were also close throughout, while several recent Super Bowls that played over did so in part because one team took a big lead, then let the other rally. We don't see that happening here. We're betting the under for Super Bowl LIV.

Free Pick: Take the Under 54

Sunday Feb 02, 2020

Sunday Feb 02, 2020

Anyone who is too sure-headed about this pick has likely missed the boat. It’s good to feel confident about your pick, but the tight point spread truly attests to a hard-to-pick game where any number of different eventualities are plausible. It’s hard to go against a Chiefs team that has won 8 straight games with the most bankable QB in the business. I just see the 49ers taking advantage of the Chiefs’ defense to a greater degree, with enough big plays from their own defense to secure the big Super Bowl win. I’ll take the Niners.

Free Pick: Take the 49ers +1

Sunday Jan 19, 2020

San Francisco is just the much more impressive team in this match-up. The 49ers own the better running game and the much better defense, and usually, that's enough for us right there. Also, of San Francisco's 14 wins this season, nine came by at least nine points. Meanwhile, Green Bay's been playing with fire all season long. It's almost hard to figure how the Packers have gotten this far. The 49ers might not win this one by 29 points, but eight would suffice. We like San Francisco here.

Free Pick: Take the 49ers -7.5

Sunday Jan 19, 2020

If a road-weary Titans team were to get slapped around on Sunday by a fresher Chiefs team that built up some momentum last week, it wouldn't be all that surprising. It still seems reasonable to perceive these teams as matching up pretty well against each other, where a somewhat evenly-contested game will ensue. It's hard not to be a little scared on either side of this coin, but I feel pretty good about getting this many points on Tennessee right now. I'll take the Titans.

Free Pick: Take the Titans +7.5

Sunday Jan 12, 2020

These teams played a very close game the last time they met, and there's good reason to believe that will also be the case Sunday. And if that's the case, four points can be a lot. We're taking those points with Seattle.

Free Pick: Take Seattle +4.5

Sunday Jan 12, 2020

Wild card win and first results against Kansas City aside, I think the Texans have exhausted the limitations of what they can do this season. The things that didn’t manifest defensively against Buffalo and their tepid offense will do so here and not in a good way for the Texans. The Chiefs have too much offense, and their improvements on the other side of the ball will help prevent Houston from keeping pace. I see a well-contested game opening up a bit, as KC gets the separation they need to notch the win and cover at home.

Free Pick: Take the Chiefs -9.5

Saturday Jan 11, 2020

This is not a pick made without trepidation. A Baltimore backer should be rightfully concerned about Derrick Henry and the overall Titans' mojo, with a particular indefinable ability they possess to play over their heads. It just seems like their scope for real success is so narrow, whereas any version of a near-peak Ravens team could make this one ugly. In wagering, there often is little upside in buying into the hype. But sometimes a team comes along that makes it the right move. This week at least, I don't think being a Baltimore naysayer will pay off. I'm taking the Ravens.

Free Pick: Take Baltimore -9

Saturday Jan 11, 2020

The Vikings caught the Saints on an off-day last week; they're probably going to run into a fresh and fired-up 49ers outfit this week. And home teams own a pretty good recent track record in the divisional rounds of the NFL playoffs. Finally, we put a lot of betting credence in time of possession, and San Francisco gets the check-mark in that department. We're giving the points here with the 49ers.

Free Pick: Take San Fran -7

Sunday Jan 05, 2020

New Orleans is just the better and more complete team here. The Saints own a solid advantage in the QB comparison and posted the better marks against common foes. Also, we put a lot of betting credence in time of possession. So despite home teams' recent struggles in wild-card games, we like New Orleans here, minus the points.

Free Pick: Take the Saints -8

Saturday Jan 04, 2020

This is dangerous territory for the Pats, as no team goes on winning forever. And when it ends, it's always an upset in a spot where you didn't expect it to happen. With their passion and different assets, the Titans aren't an altogether bad candidate. I just see this game as being important to New England, as they will be eager to remind people they're still a significant threat in this setting. Their pass-defense will make some big plays, while not allowing Henry to run wild. And against this Tennessee "D," I see them getting some late separation for the win and cover in Foxborough.

Free Pick: Take New England -5

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