Finding the Best Value in Betting NFL Futures
As the countdown continues to the start of another NFL season, the hottest action on the board at online sportsbooks is mainly focused on betting NFL futures.
From betting odds to win this season’s Super Bowl to the projected win total for all 32 teams, there are any number of ways to find solid betting value in a few of the posted options.
Division Title Futures Betting Tips
Betting on an outright winner for the Super Bowl or each conference title typically offers plus money odds even for the favorites. There is some added value in going chalk, given the healthy return on investment. Yet, this is still a low probability wager given just how unpredictable the NFL can be from one season to the next.
A more valuable way to bet these types of team futures is digging deeper into the betting odds to win each of the eight NFL division titles. You are only betting on four teams total, and in most of those cases, you can narrow the field down to just two teams.
Some of these division title futures point to a clear favorite with a much higher risk in their odds.
The Kansas City Chiefs have been the class of the AFC West for the past few seasons. However, betting them at high-risk odds (i.e., -250) to win again is not worth the gamble.
The best course of action betting NFL division futures is focusing on favorites at plus money. An example of this might be betting the Tennessee Titans to win the AFC South if they happened to be +115 favorites in a much more competitive race.
Projected Win Totals
One of the NFL's most popular preseason futures bets is the OVER/UNDER on a team's projected win total for the regular season. When these odds were first released earlier in the year, most of the 32 teams had even -110 odds for betting either side.
Those odds have now been bet up or down depending on the early money that has come in. The trick is to find teams that now offer plus money for an OVER or UNDER bet. If one of those betting opportunities meets your projections of that team’s total wins, taking the plus money becomes a value bet.
For example, the Baltimore Ravens’ projected wins could be set at 10.5 with +120 odds for the UNDER. You may want to lock-in those odds in if you believe they will not win more than ten games.
Betting NFL Player Futures
There are usually a number of NFL player futures on the betting board this time of year. This could range from Offensive and Defense Rookie of the Year, NFL Most Valuable Player, NFL Coach of the Year, etc.
Many of these futures are also low probability wagers well, given the unpredictable nature of individual player performances. However, these odds tend to offer some deep plus value in the numbers.
Given their upside potential at the quarterback position, plus money on high-profile quarterbacks such as Patrick Mahomes to win league MVP can always be seen as a value wager.
Rookie awards are much less predictable, but the return on investment usually is high. This is another player future where betting the favorite comes with a certain level of intrinsic value. Most times, this ends up being the first overall pick in this year’s college player draft.