Favorite Quarterback Props for the 2020 NFL Draft - Picks & Analysis
This season features a lot of draft action revolving around quarterbacks. With several blue-chippers in this year's class, multiple teams are looking to settle their quarterback issues with a stud who could seriously upgrade the entire franchise. And with some general uncertainty swirling around, that opens the door for some who might want to take a more unusual or drastic stance in this category. This season's draft presents some unique challenges, and without a pro day or any private workouts, the door opens a bit for the potentially unexpected. And that's without even mentioning the possible trades leading up to draft-day that can throw a wrench into any analysis.
Let’s take a look at the some of the different quarterback draft props that we think have some nice upside.
(Odds Courtesy Of Bovada)
- T.Tagovailoa drafted #3 overall +135
- T.Tagovailoa not drafted #3 overall -165
Pick and Analysis: As it looks now, the answer is no, with the Lions holding the third pick. The thing is that not many think they won’t trade that pick. The best candidate would be the Dolphins, and if they did trade to number-three, the only compelling reason would be to pick Tua. It’s just that as we approach draft time, a few things stand out—the lack of the normal process due to the pandemic and the questions looming over Tua’s health. Usually, teams that are struggling enough to draft this high aren’t in a position where they can redshirt a guy for a season. I just have a feeling that this won’t be the move.
- T.Tagovailoa third quarterback drafted +900
- Any other quarterback drafted third -1610
Pick and Analysis: The odds here reflect the well-accepted fact that Tua will be the second QB chosen. A whole lot of different scenarios shake out that way. The only legitimate other candidate to be the second choice is Justin Herbert. Therefore, is +900 worth the risk in taking the position that a few teams might shy away from Tagovailoa? I think the doubts swirling around Tua make +900 a level of return that might be hard to pass up.
- T.Tagovailoa drafted #5 overall +225
- T.Tagovailoa not drafted #5 overall -285
Pick and Analysis: I’ll take the price on this. Granted, a few different scenarios make this a no-go. One is if the Redskins decide to go with Tua at number two or if the Dolphins trade down to get him. There’s a decent chance they won't need to and can just wait for him to drop to five. The Bengals are going Burrow, and neither the Giants or Lions are going QB. That leaves Washington at the two-spot, and the guess here is they don't roll the dice on Tua.
- J.Love third quarterback drafted +295
- Any other quarterback drafted third -385
Pick and Analysis: Let’s face it, for the presumed QB draft order of Burrow-Tua-Herbert to change, it would take a bolt from beyond. And that bolt could ironically be the Bolts, in the event that they step out and take Love ahead of Herbert (presumably). There is just something about the lack of procedure and access in this year’s draft that makes one think there could be more room for shenanigans than in other drafts—ones that aren’t all that short on surprises. Still, I believe there are better ways to make your mark than this. I'll say it doesn't happen at -385.
- J.Love draft position over 13½ -260
- J.Love draft position under 13½ +200
Pick and Analysis: Over. Again, this is a strange time, and weirder things have happened than a prospect like Love going before the 14th pick. But the teams that need quarterbacks outside of Cincy, the Dolphins, and the Chargers are precious few in the top 13. My thought process is that unless you see the Chargers picking them at 6, over could be a solid bet.
- J.Herbert draft position over 5½ -260
- J.Herbert draft position under 5½ +200
Pick and Analysis: Would any of the top five teams take him? Would a team that needed a quarterback trade down this low for him? Only two teams in the top five would even take a quarterback, and the best bet would be that Miami holds pat and take him with the fifth pick. If they trade down, it won’t be for Herbert. It’s not that unrealistic the Redskins go with Tua, making this a slam-dunk. There’s also a chance Tua’s stock dips slightly, making Herbert the second choice at QB. I just see this going over, with Herbert going no sooner than 6 to the Chargers.
- Jalen Hurts, if undrafted = no action
- J.Hurts drafted in second round +155
- J.Hurts drafted in any other round -185
Pick and Analysis: There are issues, and he’s likely to not go in the first round. The only question is if he drops to the third round or lower, a definite possibility. It just seems like he’s too big of a talent for a team to not take a stab in this round. While a lot of teams aren’t in a justifiable position to draft a QB in the first round, that number grows in this round, and he'd be on a very short list of available talent. Maybe Tampa at 45?