Detroit Lions vs. Dallas Cowboys Pick ATS - Odds and Betting Predictions

Date: 
September 30, 1:00 PM EDT
Location:
TV:

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
Cowboys -3
Total: 
43.5

NFL Line

The Cowboys opened as a 3-point favorite in this NFC matchup with a total of 44. Both lines have held at the top sportsbook that we track.

Last Games: The Lions moved to 1-2 with an impressive 26-10 home win over the New England Patriots crushing the + 7-point spread. The 36 total points scored had UNDER bettors cashing their tickets. The Cowboys fell to 1-2 losing on the road to the Seattle Seahawks 24-13 failing to get the against the spread cover as a 1-point underdog. The 37 combined points scored fell short of the 40 point closing line.

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Lions at Cowboys NFL Game Set-Up

The Lions defense had a strong game holding the Pats with Tom Brady to just 10 points on 209 yards after allowing 78 points in their first two. RB Kerryon Johnson rushed for 101 yards to give Detroit their first 100-yard rusher in 70 games.

After having four INT in the shocking season-opening loss, Lions’ QB Matthew Stafford has five TD passes and only one pick in his last two games. He will face a Dallas D that ranks 4th in the league against the pass and 11th against the run.

The Cowboys are taking a lot of heat, as they have played pretty good defense, but their offense has looked pedestrian and ranking 2nd to last in the NFL only averaging 13.7 points per game. Dak Prescott has passed for just 498 yards with two TD and two INT, and he has not passed for over 170 yards in any game this season. RB Ezekiel Elliot rushed for 129 yards in the loss to Seattle, but also made two big mistakes with a fumble and stepping out of bounds to negate a TD. Look for Elliot to get a heavy workload in this game facing a Lions' run defense that ranks dead last in the league and is allowing opposing rushers to average 5.4 yards per carry.

Head to Head: These teams last met in the 2016 season where the Cowboys beat the Lions 42-21.

This season the Lions are 2-1 ATS with an O/U record of 2-1 and the Cowboys are 1-2 ATS with an O/U record of 0-3.

The Lions rank 9th in the league in total offense and 7th in total defense and the Cowboys rank 30th in total offense and 3rd in total defense.

Sagarin Rankings

Detroit Lions: 17.91
Dallas Cowboys: 19.26

Injury Report

LIONS

[DE] 09/23/2018 - Ezekiel Ansah is "?" Sunday vs. Dallas ( Shoulder )
[T] 09/23/2018 - Andrew Donnal is "?" Sunday vs. Dallas ( Knee )
[TE] 09/23/2018 - Michael Roberts is "?" Sunday vs. Dallas ( Knee )
[S] 09/04/2018 - Marcus Cromartie IR ( Undisclosed )
[FB] 09/04/2018 - Nick Bawden IR ( Knee )
[LB] 09/04/2018 - Steve Longa IR ( Knee )
[RB] 09/04/2018 - Zach Zenner IR ( Back )

COWBOYS

[DT] 09/23/2018 - Maliek Collins is "?" Sunday vs. Detroit ( Knee )
[LB] 09/24/2018 - Sean Lee is OUT 2-4 weeks ( Hamstring )
[C] 08/23/2018 - Travis Frederick is out indefinitely ( Illness )
[G] 09/07/2018 - Parker Ehinger IR ( Knee )
[DE] 09/07/2018 - Datone Jones is out indefinitely ( Knee )
[WR] 09/04/2018 - Cedrick Wilson IR ( Shoulder )
[S] 09/04/2018 - Jameill Showers IR ( Knee )
[G] 09/04/2018 - Marcus Martin IR ( Toe )
[WR] 09/04/2018 - Noah Brown IR ( Hamstring )
[DL] 06/15/2018 - David Irving 4- game suspension (eligible to return 10/7 vs. Houston) ( Suspension )

Lions at Cowboys NFL Key Betting Trends/Angles

  • DET is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games
  • DET is 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games against a team with a losing record
  • DET has an Over record of 5-2 in their last 7 road games
  • DAL is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games against a team with a losing record
  • DAL is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game
  • DAL has an Under record of 5-1 in their last 6 home games

Head to Head Trends

The underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 games between these teams.

In the last 7 games between these teams, the Over record is 6-1.

In the last 5 games between these teams in Dallas, the Over record is 4-1.

Get more details: Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys NFL Match-Up

Next Game Lions vs. Packers
Cowboys @ Texans

Lions at Cowboys prediction 9/30/18

Both teams have done an outstanding job against the pass using the yards per game metric Detroit ranked leading the league and Dallas in fourth spot. That said on paper this will be the biggest test for the Cowboys’ pass defense facing the number 8th aerial attack of the Lions. That’s the opposite scenario the Lions have facing the 31st ranked Dallas pass offense. Some bettors may be worried about the Detroit run defense that has been gouged for a league-worst 5.4 yards per carry, but that is skewed by a few big runs. Ezekiel Elliot indeed can manufacture some big runs, but with the limited threat from the passing game, I expect the Lions to have the safeties up to help. Detroit has too much offense for the Cowboys.

Free Pick: 
Take the Detroit Lions +3

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