Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings Week 11 Odds & Predictions

Date: 
November 20, 4:25 PM EST
Location:
TV:

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
Dall -1.5/Minn +1.5
Total: 
47.5

The Vikings are coming off one of the craziest NFL victories in recent memory. The Cowboys are coming off a tough emotional defeat. But both are in a good position for the playoff race heading into Sunday afternoon's NFC match-up in Minneapolis.

The betting spread on this game seems to indicate some faith in Dallas and some uncertainty about Minnesota. Why else would the (supposedly) second-best team in the conference be lined as a home dog?

Here's how we home-worked this contest for our free NFL betting pick.

NFL Betting Lines

The Week 11 NFL betting odds opened Dallas as a one-point road favorite for Sunday, with an over/under of right around 47. Early betting action then bumped the Cowboys to -1.5 and the total to 48.5.

Cowboys-Vikings NFL Betting Preview

Dallas is coming off a tough 31-28 overtime loss at Green Bay last Sunday. The Cowboys, favored by four points, scored the first seven points of the game, fell behind 14-7 but took a 14-14 tie to the half. Dallas then scored two third-quarter touchdowns to go up 28-14 but let the Packers score two fourth-quarter TDs to force OT. The Cowboys then came up empty on the first possession of overtime, then gave up a big play and a field goal to finish off yet another excruciating loss to Green Bay.

Dallas actually out-gained the Packers 421-415 and ran the ball for 159 yards. But the Cowboys gave up 207 yards of Green Bay ground game and turned the ball over twice on Prescott interceptions, both of which led to Packers touchdowns.

Dallas has now out-gained six of its last eight opponents, but it's also been out-rushed by four of its last six foes, mainly thanks to some poor run defense.

At 6-3 overall the Cowboys trail first-place Philadelphia by two games and a tie-breaker in the NFC East. But they also occupy the No. 6 spot in the NFC playoff standings.

Minnesota, meanwhile, is coming off a thrilling 33-30 overtime victory at Buffalo last Sunday. The Vikings, playing as six-point dogs, drove their first possession of the game 74 yards to a touchdown but trailed 24-10 at the half. Minnesota later trailed 27-10 but used a long Dalvin Cook run for a score, fantastic efforts by WR Justin Jefferson, and some absolute craziness down inside the Bills' 1-yard line to take a 30-27 lead. The Vikes allowed Buffalo to drive late to a field goal that forced OT, kicked a field goal of their own on the first possession of extra time, then clinched the game with an interception.

Minnesota gave up 486 yards of Bills' offense but produced 481 yards of its own and won the turnover battle 4-2, which basically decided the game.

The Vikings have now been out-gained by four of their last eight opponents and out-rushed by five of their last eight foes. But they've won seven games in a row, all by one score.

At 8-1 overall, Minnesota leads the NFC North by 4.5 games over second-place Green Bay and is tied with Philadelphia for the top spot in the NFC playoff standings, although the Eagles own the head-to-head tie-breaker.

These two teams have played five common opponents so far this season; Chicago, Detroit, Green Bay, Philadelphia, and Washington. Dallas played those foes to 3-2 both SU and ATS and +25 yards per game, Minnesota to 4-1 SU but 1-3-1 ATS and -2 YPG.

The injury report for this game includes names like Jefferson, Elliot, Darrisaw, and Lawrence. Bettors might be wise to consult later reports before getting down on this game.

Cowboys-Vikings Recent History

These teams have met each of the last three seasons, Dallas winning twice, all three games close. In fact, the last six meetings between these teams, going back to 2010, have been decided by a total of 20 points. Last year the Cowboys, quarterbacked by back-up Cooper Rush, scored late to beat Minnesota 20-16 also in Minneapolis.

NFL Betting Trends

Through Week 10, home teams played 81-64 SU and 72-71 ATS in the NFL this season.

Through Week 10, home dogs played 27-32 SU and 35-23 ATS in the NFL this season.

Totals Report

  • The Unders are 5-3 in Cowboys games this season which are averaging 41 total points.
  • The Overs are 5-4 in Vikings games this season and are averaging 46 points.
  • Through Week 10, the Unders played 88-60 (59 percent) in the NFL this season.

Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings Prediction ATS

Dallas led its game last week 28-14, then lost. Minnesota trailed its game last week 27-10, then won. But the NFL is a crazy place, where what's up one week is down the next, and vice versa. And that's the vibe this game gives us. The Cowboys should be 7-3, while the Vikings, who have come from behind in the fourth quarter to win five times this season, could be 5-4 or even 4-5. Also, that Minnesota defense seems awfully iffy. We like Dallas for Sunday.
 
Free Pick: 
Take Dallas -1.5