Dallas Cowboys at Kansas City Chiefs Point Spread - Week 11 Free Pick
It's a potential Super Bowl preview when the two-time defending AFC champion Chiefs host the resurgent Cowboys Sunday afternoon at Arrowhead. Dallas is already closing in on clinching a division title, while Kansas City, after struggling through a 2-4 stretch, now owns a three-game winning streak and a divisional lead.
How are we playing this game with our free NFL betting pick?
Dallas-Kansas City NFL Betting Lines
The Week 11 NFL betting odds opened the Chiefs as two-point favorites over the Cowboys, with an over/under of right around 53. Early betting action then edged KC to -2.5 and goosed that total to 56.
Cowboys Betting Preview
Dallas just bounced back from that dismal home defeat to Denver two weeks ago to bomb Atlan-ta last week 43-3. The Cowboys drove the game's opening possession 73 yards to a touchdown, let the Falcons kick a field goal, then scored the last 36 points for the easy win and cover as eight-point favorites.
Dallas out-gained Atlanta 431-214, dominated time of possession by a 38:22 split, won the turn-over battle 3-1, and scored a touchdown on a blocked punt.
So the Cowboys have now out-gained eight of their nine opponents this season and out-rushed seven of their nine foes.
Two weeks ago, Dallas laid a huge egg in a 30-16 loss to the Broncos. But prior to that, the Cowboys won seven games in a row.
At 7-2 overall Dallas leads the NFC East by 3.5 games over second-place Philadelphia and trails Green Bay and Arizona by just a half-game in the battle for the best record in the NFC.
Chiefs Betting Preview
Kansas City, meanwhile, rides a three-game winning streak into Sunday after routing the Raiders in Las Vegas last week 41-14. The Chiefs drew first blood with a touchdown late in the first quarter, let the Raiders tie the game five minutes later but led 17-7 at the half. KC then allowed Vegas to get within 17-14 early in the second half but scored the last 24 points of the game to secure the victory and the cover as a 2.5-point favorite.
Kansas City out-gained the Raiders 516-299, held a 35:25 time of possession advantage, and won the turnover battle 2-1.
Still, the Chiefs have only out-gained and out-rushed five of their ten opponents this season.
Two weeks ago, KC beat the Aaron Rodgers-less Packers 13-7, even though it was held to just 237 yards of total offense. And three weeks ago, the Chiefs needed a field goal with a minute to go to beat the 3-6 Giants 20-17.
At 6-4 overall, Kansas City leads the AFC West by a half-game over both the Chargers and Raiders. The Chiefs also sit in the No. 4 spot in the AFC playoff standings, two games and a tie-breaker behind top-seeded Tennessee.
These two teams last met four seasons ago, a 28-17 Cowboys home victory. But that was a coach ago for Dallas and a quarterback ago for KC.
- Get more details: Dallas at Kansas City 11/21/21 Betting Stats
NFL Betting Trends
- Home teams are just 71-76 SU, 61-86 ATS in the NFL this season.
- Favorites are 89-60 SU but just 64-85 ATS in the NFL this season.
Week 11 Picks: WFT/CAR Week Pick Against the Spread
Overs are 5-4 in Cowboys games this season, which are averaging 53 total points.
Totals are split 5-5 in Chiefs games this season, which are averaging 50 points.
The Under is 83-66 in the NFL this season.
Cowboys at Chiefs Prediction ATS 11/21/21
We consider that Dallas loss to Denver a fluke. The Cowboys lead the NFL in total offense, and their defense is much improved over last season. Kansas City, meanwhile, is simply not the team it was the last couple of seasons. Also, Dallas is out-rushing opponents this season by 39 yards per game, while the Chiefs are getting out-rushed by four YPG. And teams that win the ground battles in the NFL cover the spread about 65 percent of the time. We like the Cowboys here to win this game outright.