Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs Odds & Picks
The Kansas City Chiefs shoot for the rare feat of a third straight Super Bowl appearance while the Cincinnati Bengals aim for their first Super Bowl in 33 seasons when the teams meet for the AFC championship game Sunday afternoon at Arrowhead. The Chiefs won a pair of high-scoring playoff games to reach this AFC title tilt, including an absolutely crazy game last week against Buffalo, while the Bengals won a pair of tough, low-scoring affairs to get here.
KC is favored by seven solid points for this AFC championship game. Who do we like here for our free NFL betting pick?
AFC Championship Game Betting Line
The NFL postseason betting odds opened the Chiefs as seven-point favorites over Cincinnati, with an over/under of right around 53. Early betting action then bumped that total a point and a half to 54.5.
According to Sagarin's NFL ratings at sagarin.com, KC should be favored by eight points for this match-up.
AFC Championship Game Betting Preview
Cincinnati reached this AFC championship game by winning a divisional-round game at Tennessee last week 19-16. The Bengals, playing as four-point underdogs, scored the first six points of the game and led 9-6 at the half. Cincinnati then scored the first seven points of the second half to go up by ten but let the Titans tie the game at 16-16 late in the third quarter. The Bengals later won it with an interception with 20 seconds to go, one good Burrow-to-Chase connection, and a 52-yard McPherson field goal at the buzzer.
Cincinnati got out-gained by Tennessee 353-345, out-rushed 140-65, and allowed nine sacks, which cost them 68 yards. But the Bengals won the turnover battle 3-1, creating a +2 points differential.
Two weeks ago, Cincinnati beat Las Vegas in a wild-card game 26-19, covering as a six-point favorite. The Bengals got out-gained that day, too, 385-308, but won that turnover battle 2-0, clinching the victory with an interception deep inside their own red zone in the waning seconds.
Going back into the regular season, Cincinnati is 5-0 both SU and ATS over its last five games that actually meant something.
Kansas City, meanwhile, reached this AFC championship game by out-lasting Buffalo in an epic divisional-round bout last week 42-36 in overtime. The Chiefs, playing as three-point favorites, led the Bills 23-14 in the third quarter and 33-29 with a minute to go. They then fell down 36-33 with 13 seconds left but moved 44 yards in two plays to set up Butker's game-tying field goal at the buzzer. KC then drove the opening possession of OT 75 yards to a touchdown for the amazing victory and the cover.
The Chiefs out-gained Buffalo 552-422, out-rushed the Bills 182-109 and won the time of possession by a 37-28 split.
Two weeks ago, Kansas City beat Pittsburgh in a wild-card game 42-21, easily covering at -11. KC led that game 35-7 in the third quarter and out-gained the Steelers 478-257.
Going back into the regular season, the Chiefs are 11-1 SU, 8-4 ATS over their last 12 games, the only outright loss over that span coming against these Bengals back in Week 17.
As just mentioned, these two teams just played a crazy game four weeks ago, a 34-31 Cincinnati home victory. Kansas City led that game 14-0 early and 28-17 at the half, but the Bengals won the second half 17-3, stealing the W on another field goal at the buzzer.
Cincinnati won that game outright as a three-point home dog and the game played over a total of 51 early in the third quarter.
- Get more details: Cincinnati at Kansas City AFC Championship Betting Stats
These two teams played eight common opponents this season; the Steelers, Ravens, Browns, Chargers, Packers, Titans, Raiders, and Broncos. Cincinnati played 8-4 SU, 9-3 ATS vs. that slate of foes, Kansas City 9-3 SU, 6-6 ATS.
NFL Playoff Betting Trends
- Cincinnati is 6-2 both SU and ATS this season against teams that made the playoffs.
- Kansas City is 6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS against teams that made the playoffs this season.
- Home teams are 6-4, both SU and ATS this NFL postseason.
- Favorites are 6-4, both SU and ATS this NFL postseason.
- Over the last six NFL conference championship rounds, the home teams are 9-3 SU 8-4 ATS.
- Over the last six NFL conference championship rounds, the favorites are 7-5 SU 6-6 ATS.
The unders are 11-8 in Bengals games this season, which are averaging 49 total points.
The overs are 12-7 in Chiefs games this season, which are averaging 50 total points.
The unders are 6-4 this NFL postseason.
Over the last six NFL conference championship rounds, the overs are 9-3.
Bengals at Chiefs AFC Title Predictions 1/30/22
The best unit on the field Sunday will be the Chiefs offense, with those weapons capable of creating big yardage on any given play. And we don't like the way Cincinnati is running the ball as of late. Also, KC had the Bengals down two scores in the second half about a month ago before giving it way, and we just don't believe they'd let something like that happen again. Also, while the home-field advantage is as low as we can remember - Sagarin's got it at 1.6 points - Arrowhead is a little different and probably worth more. And home favorites own a pretty good betting record over recent conference championship games. So we're giving the points here with Kansas City.