Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons Pick ATS - Odds and Game Preview

September 16, 1:00 PM EDT

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
Falcons -5.5

This season the Panthers are 1-0 against the spread with a record versus the total line of 0-1 and the Falcons are 0-1 ATS with an O/U record of 0-1.

The NFL Betting Line

The Falcons opened at -5 with a total of 44, and as of Wednesday morning, they are now at -5.5 with a total of 44.5.

Last Games: The Panthers moved to 1-0 with a 16-8 win over the Dallas Cowboys where they covered as a 2.5-home favorite, and the total went Under. The Falcons fell to 0-1 with an 18-12 road loss to the Philadelphia Eagles where they failed to cover as a 1-point underdog, and the total points scored of 30 went Under.

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The Panthers got off to a solid start to the season with their aforementioned 16-8 win over the Cowboys in their season opener. Their defense was the key to the victory with the offense failing to reach 300 total yards, holding the Cowboys to a feeble 232 yards. The one thing about the offense to their credit was the balance with 146 yards through the air and 147 yards on the ground.

The ground game was vital for the Panthers in the match with Cam Newton the leading rusher with 58 yards and a TD and Christian McCaffrey picked up 50 yards on 10 carries. They will be facing a Falcons' defense that gave up 113 rushing yards in their season-opening loss to the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles.

If you look at the stats of the Falcons vs. Eagles game, you would think Atlanta won the game. They had more overall yards (299 to 232), the same number of turnovers (1), and on 3rd down were 8/16 while the Eagles were only 4/15. However, the Falcons managed just 74 rushing yards, and they were outscored 15-6 in the second half.

Matt Ryan did not have the best opener, and while he passed for 251 yards, he was only 21/43 with no TD passes and was picked off once. His primary target by far and the WR, the Panthers, have to keep tabs on is Julius Jones, who had 169 receiving yards in the Philly loss while the next leading receiver only had 26 yards.

Ryan did not get much help from the run game with Atlanta only rushing for 76 yards, and Devonta Freeman led the team with 36 yards. He injured his knee in the game, and while listed as Questionable he should be able to go in this game.

The Falcons beat the Panthers 22-10 at home last season in the previous game where they held Carolina to only 87 rushing yards.

After one game the Falcons ranked 26th in the league in total offense and tied for 3rd in total defense and the Panthers rank 28th in total offense and tied for 3rd in total defense.

Expert handicapper Rich Crew provides extra picks on the Moneyline, Top Fav ATS and, Top Dog ATS

Head to Head: last season these teams split the two games against each other with each winning at home.

Sagarin Rankings

Carolina Panthers: 22.61
Atlanta Falcons: 22.29

Injury Report

WR] 09/09/2018 - Curtis Samuel is "?" Sunday vs. Atlanta ( Heart )
[TE] 09/11/2018 - Greg Olsen is out indefinitely ( Foot )
[T] 09/10/2018 - Daryl Williams is doubtful Sunday vs. Atlanta ( Leg )
[S] 09/04/2018 - Damian Parms IR ( Shoulder )
[RB] 09/04/2018 - Elijah Hood IR ( Knee )
[WR] 09/04/2018 - Fred Ross IR ( Hip )
[T] 09/04/2018 - Jeremiah Sirles IR ( Hamstring )
[CB] 09/04/2018 - Kevon Seymour IR ( Shoulder )
[CB] 09/04/2018 - Ross Cockrell IR ( Leg )
[LB] 09/09/2018 - Luke Kuechly injured last game, is "?" Sunday vs. Atlanta ( Leg)
[T] 09/04/2018 - Matt Kalil IR ( Knee )
[LB] 09/06/2018 - Thomas Davis 4- game suspension (eligible to return 10/14 vs. Washington) ( Suspension )
[RB] 08/03/2018 - Fozzy Whittaker IR ( Knee )

RB] 09/11/2018 - Devonta Freeman is upgraded to probable Sunday vs. Carolina ( Knee )
[LB] 09/11/2018 - Deion Jones IR ( Undisclosed )
[S] 09/09/2018 - Keanu Neal IR ( ACL )
[G] 09/09/2018 - Ben Garland is "?" Sunday vs. Carolina ( Calf )
[CB] 09/09/2018 - Blidi Wreh-Wilson is "?" Sunday vs. Carolina ( Shoulder )
[CB] 09/09/2018 - Isaiah Oliver is "?" Sunday vs. Carolina ( Ankle )

Betting Trends/Angles

  • CAR is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games
  • CAR is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games
  • CAR has an Under record of 6-2 in their last 8 games against a team with a losing record
  • ATL is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games
  • ATL is 7-3 ATS in their previous 10 games in September
  • ATL has an Under record of 13-3 in their last 16 games

Match-up Trends

The Falcons are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against the Panthers.

The Falcons are 15-5-2 ATS in their last 22 home games against the Panthers.

The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 games between these teams.

In the last 10 games between these teams, the Under record is 8-1-1.

In the last 5 games between these teams in Atlanta, the Under record is 4-1.

Next Game Panthers vs. Bengals
Falcons vs. Saints
Get more details: Carolina at Atlanta NFL Match-Up

Panthers at Falcons Prediction 9/16/18

Carolina looked good beating Dallas in Week 1, but I believe it will be a different story in Week 2. The Cowboys are a run-first team, and you can stop them on the ground you can shut down the offense. The Falcons are a different story. While they were held to under 100 rushing yards last week in the loss, they did win three of the five games that rushed for fewer than100 yards last season including their home game against the Panthers last season. Also, Carolina will be without Pro Bowler LB Thomas Davis (suspension), and All-World LB Luke Kuechly is iffy with a hyperextended knee. The Panthers are also dealing with injuries to the offensive line that isn’t top flight with all hands on deck, so I don’t expect them to have the same success in the running game this week. It is a divisional game, but I think the Falcons can extend the margin and won’t have a problem keeping on the gas pedal.

Free Pick: 
Take the Atlanta Falcons -6 ( RC)

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