Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots MNF Pick ATS
The AFC East champion Buffalo Bills shoot for their first season sweep of the rival New England Patriots in 20 years on this week's edition of Monday Night Football. Buffalo just clinched its first division title in 25 years last week, while New England will miss the playoffs for the first time in over a decade. The Bills received some early steam from the betting public for this game, so they're now lined as touchdown favorites on the divisional road. How are we playing this game with our free NFL pick?
NFL Betting Odds
Week 16 NFL betting odds opened the Bills at around -4.5 over the Patriots, with an over/under of 45. Early betting action then ran Buffalo to -7 and bumped that total to 46.
According to Sagarin's ratings at USAToday.com, the Bills should be favored by 4.5 points.
Bills Betting Preview
Buffalo owns four-game winning streaks, both SU and ATS, after drubbing Denver last week 48-19. The Bills scored the first 14 points of the game, let the Broncos get within 21-13 at the half, then scored two touchdowns in the first five minutes of the second half and pulled away for the win and the easy cover as six-point favorites.
Buffalo piled up 534 yards of total offense last week, including 182 on the ground, while holding Denver to just 255 total yards. The Bills also won the time of possession by a 34:26 split, converted 9/13 on third downs, and scored a defensive touchdown.
Buffalo has now out-gained each of its last three opponents and out-rushed three of its last four foes. The Bills are also 6-1 SU over their last seven games, the only loss coming on that Hail Mary against Arizona, and 6-0 ATS their last six times out.
Two weeks ago, Buffalo beat fellow AFC championship contender Pittsburgh 26-15.
At 11-3 overall, the Bills are already champions of the AFC East, but they can't catch first-place Kansas City in the battle for the No. 1 seed in the upcoming AFC playoffs. So Buffalo is now trying to lock down the No. 2 spot, which would give it a home-field advantage, at least for its first two playoff games.
Patriots Betting Preview
New England, meanwhile, is now out of the playoff hunt after losing at Miami last week 22-12. The offensively-challenged Patriots led the Dolphins 6-0 at the half and 9-7 through three quarters but gave up a pair of Tua Tagovailoa touchdown runs in the fourth and had no answer.
New England got out-gained by Miami 383-303, gave up 250 yards on the ground, lost time of possession by a 37:23 clip, and didn't find the end zone all day.
The Patriots have now been out-gained and out-rushed three times in their last four games.
Two weeks ago, New England also went without a touchdown in a 24-3 loss to the Rams.
At 6-8 overall, the Patriots are playing out the string on a lost season, something they haven't done in a long time.
We heard some talk earlier this week about New England making a change at quarterback for Monday night, but as of this writing, it still appears the ineffective Cam Newton will remain as the starter. For now.
Buffalo-New England Recent History
New England absolutely dominated this rivalry throughout the Brady era, winning 35 of 39 meetings with Buffalo through last season. But the Bills won the first meeting of the post-Brady era back on November 24-21. The Patriots had a chance to tie or win that game, but Newton fumbled the ball away inside the Buffalo red zone with 30 seconds left.
Also, that game played over a total of 41.
NFL Betting Trends
- Home teams are 112-112 SU, 108-115 ATS in the NFL this season.
- Favorites are 147-76 SU, 97-125 ATS in the NFL this season.
- Home dogs are 48-38 in the NFL this season.
Overs are 9-4 in Bills games this season, which are averaging 53 total points.
Unders are 10-4 in Patriots games this season, which are averaging 42 points.
Overs played 10-6 in the NFL last week.
Overs are 111-109 in the NFL this season.
Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots Predictions
It appears the worm has turned in this rivalry. Buffalo is a division champion with a seemingly very bright future, while New England is probably playing out the end of its dynasty. The Bills are still chasing good seeding for the playoffs while the Patriots have little to play for, other than perhaps pride. Also, New England has allowed 436 yards on the ground over its last two games. And while the Patriots nearly beat Buffalo two months ago by rushing for 188 yards, we doubt they'll do that again. We're betting the Bills here, minus the points.