Buffalo Bills at New Orleans Saints Odds & Free Pick

November 25, 8:20 PM EST

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
Buff -5.5/NO +5.5

Thanksgiving NFL betting action finishes up with an inter-conference match-up of playoff con-tenders when the Bills battle the Saints at the Superdome Thursday night. Both these teams got off to good starts to this season, but both are struggling as of late. In fact, they're a combined 1-5 their last six times out.

Buffalo's favored on the road here over a banged-up New Orleans outfit. How are we playing this game with our NFL Week 12 pick?

NFL Betting Lines

The Week 12 NFL betting odds opened the Bills as four-point road favorites for this game, with an over/under of right around 47. Early betting action then bumped Buffalo to -5.5 and dipped that total to 46.

Bills Betting Preview

Buffalo is just 2-3 SU, 1-3-1 ATS its last five times out after losing badly at home to Indianapolis last Sunday 41-15. The Bills let the Colts score three touchdowns and a field goal on their first four possessions of the game and trailed 24-7 at the half. Buffalo then gave up the first 14 points of the second half on its way towards an embarrassing outright defeat as a seven-point favorite.

Buffalo got out-gained by Indy 370-307, out-rushed 264-91, lost time of possession by a 38:22 split, and lost the turnover battle 4-0, leading to a -21 points differential. All in all, a terrible per-formance.

Last week was the first time this season the Bills got out-gained, but it was also the third time over their previous five games they got out-rushed.

So at 6-4 overall, the defending AFC East champion Bills now trail first-place New England by a half-game in that divisional race. Buffalo also clings to the No. 7 spot in the AFC playoff stand-ings, just a half-game ahead of the Colts, Pittsburgh, and Cleveland.

Saints Betting Preview

New Orleans, meanwhile, lugs a three-game losing skid into Thursday after falling at Philadelph-ia last week 40-29. The short-handed Saints fell behind to the Eagles 14-0 in the first quarter and later threw a pick-6 to trail 27-7 into halftime. New Orleans then gave up the first six points of the second before scoring 22 meaningless points in the fourth quarter to make the final score a wee bit more respectable.

The Saints got out-gained by Philadelphia 380-323, out-rushed 242-109, lost time of possession by a 37:23 split, and lost the turnover battle 3-1, resulting in a -10 points differential.

New Orleans has actually out-gained three of its last five opponents and out-rushed four of its previous five foes. But it's also 0-3 since losing QB Jameis Winston for the season to a knee inju-ry.

At 5-5 overall, the Saints trail first-place Tampa Bay by two games in the NFC South race but also own the No. 7 spot in the NFC playoff standings by a tie-breaker over San Francisco.

These teams last met four seasons ago. A 47-10 New Orleans romp up in Buffalo. Some guy named Brees quarterbacked the Saints that day against Tyrod Taylor and Nate Peterman for the Bills.

NFL Betting Trends

  • Home teams are just 77-84 SU, 65-96 ATS in the NFL this season.
  • Favorites are 98-65 SU, 71-92 ATS in the NFL this season.
  • Home dogs are 20-41 SU, 28-33 ATS in the NFL this season.

Totals Report

Totals are split 5-5 in Bills games this season, which are averaging 47 total points.

Overs are 6-4 in Saints games this season, which are also averaging 47 points.

After going 10-5 last week, the Unders are 92-71 in the NFL this season.

Bills vs. Saints prediction ATS 11/25/21

Buffalo's the better team in this match-up, and we expect a bounce-back performance, following a really lousy performance last Sunday. Also, New Orleans is seriously banged-up. So we're betting the Bills, playing on the road, where spreads tend to be friendlier.
Free Pick: 
Take Buffalo -5.5