Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots Picks & Predictions

November 30, 8:15 PM EST

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
Buff -5/NE +5

The NFL gives us a high-stakes AFC East grudge match to watch and bet on when the 8-3 Bills battle the 6-5 Patriots on this week's edition of Thursday night football betting action. Buffalo remains right in the running for the No. 1 seed in the upcoming AFC playoffs, while New England is trying to track down a wild-card spot.

Which way are we going here with our free NFL betting pick?

NFL Betting Lines

The Week 13 NFL betting odds opened Buffalo at -5.5 for Thursday night, with an over/under of right around 45. Early sharp betting action then edged the Bills down to -3.5 and dipped that total to 43.5.

Bills-Patriots NFL Betting Preview

Buffalo lost a couple of games to begin November but now owns back-to-back victories, including a 28-25 decision at Detroit last Thursday. The Bills spotted the Lions the first seven points of the game but led 17-14 at the half. Buffalo later led 25-22, let Detroit tie it at 25-25 with just 23 seconds left but used one big play to set up a game-winning field goal with two seconds remaining.

However, the Bills came up short versus the spread as nine-point favorites.

Buffalo out-gained the Lions 401-326, out-rushed Detroit 164-96, and won both the turnover battle (2-1) and time of possession (31:29).

The Bills have now out-gained nine of their 11 opponents this season and out-rushed eight of their 11 foes.

Two weeks ago, Buffalo built a 28-10 lead on Cleveland and won 31-23.

At 8-3 overall, the Bills occupy the No. 5 spot in the AFC playoffs standings, just one game behind No. 1 Kansas City. And Buffalo owns the head-to-head tie-breaker on the Chiefs, thanks to that 24-20 win in KC back in October.

New England, meanwhile, just had a three-game winning streak snapped, losing 33-26 at Minnesota last Thursday. The Patriots gave up the first seven points of the game but battled back to take a 16-16 tie into the half. New England then scored the first seven points of the second half and led 26-23 into the fourth quarter but gave up the last 10 points of the game and lost.

The Patriots also came up short ATS as three-point dogs.

New England actually out-gained the Vikings 409-358. But the Patriots also gave up a 97-yard kick-off return for a touchdown in the third quarter and got screwed on what should have been a touchdown in the fourth, resulting instead in a New England field goal.

Two weeks ago, the Patriots held the Jets to just 103 total yards and won 10-3. Three weeks ago, New England limited Indianapolis to just 121 yards and won 26-3. And four weeks ago, they beat the Jets 22-17.

At 6-5 overall, the Patriots sit in the No. 8 spot in the AFC, just one game behind four 7-4 teams in the battle for that No. 7 spot.

On the injury front, both teams are banged-up on defense; most notably, Buffalo LB Von Miller is out after hurting a knee last week.

Common Opponents

These two teams have played eight common opponents so far this season; the Vikings, Browns, Lions, Jets, Packers, Ravens, Steelers, and Dolphins. Buffalo played those foes to 5-3 SU, just 1-5-2 ATS but +65 yards per game, New England to 5-4 SU, 5-3-1 ATS, and +22 YPG.

Bills-Patriots Recent History

New England dominated this rivalry for 20 years, but Buffalo is trying to turn the worm, winning four of the last five meetings SU and going 5-2-1 ATS over the last eight. Last year the teams split their two regular-season meetings before the Bills rolled the Patriots in an AFC wild-card game 47-17.

NFL Betting Trends

  • Through Week 12, home teams are 96-77 SU and 90-81 ATS in the NFL this season.
  • Through Week 12, favorites are 109-69 SU, 77-98 ATS in the NFL this season.
  • Through Week 12, home dogs are 35-35 SU and 42-27 ATS in the NFL this season.

Totals Report

  • The Unders are 8-3 in Bills games this season, averaging 46 total points.
  • The Unders are 6-5 in Patriots games this season, averaging 40 points.
  • Through Week 12, the Unders are 103-75 (58 percent) in the NFL this season.

Bills at Patriots Week 13 Prediction ATS

Buffalo's won four of the last five meetings between these teams, and the only game it lost came on a bad-weather night last December when throwing the ball was nearly impossible. Also, the Bills are out-rushing opponents this season by 31 YPG, while New England's been held to less than 100 yards on the ground five of its last six times out. Also, while home dogs are covering at a 61 percent rate this season, that sounds like a trend due for a correction. We're betting on Buffalo Thursday night.  

Free Pick: 
Take Buffalo -3.5