Bucs at Eagles Week 6 Odds, Tips, Free Pick ATS
Tampa Bay is right on schedule for a possible Super Bowl repeat heading into this Thursday night NFL affair with the Eagles in Philadelphia. The Buccaneers are 4-1, leading the NFC South and looking dangerous like they did late last season. The Eagles, meanwhile, are still finding their way with their new quarterback but are coming off an unexpected road victory last week. Tampa's favored by a touchdown here, and we're guessing that line might go up from there. How are we playing this game with our free NFL betting pick?
NFL Betting Lines
The Week 6 NFL betting odds opened Tampa at -6.5 for Thursday night's game, with an over/under of right around 53. Early betting action then bumped the Bucs to -7 and dipped that total to 52.
Buccaneers Betting Preview
Tampa Bay is 4-1 on the season after beating Miami last week 45-17. The Bucs spotted the Dol-phins the first three points of the game, trailed 10-7 after one quarter but used a pair of Antonio Brown touchdowns to lead 24-10 at the half. Tampa then allowed Miami to get within 24-17 midway through the third but tacked on three insurance scores from there to ice the game and the cover as an 11-point favorite. The Bucs out-gained the Dolphins 558-301, although that stat is a bit misleading, considering through three quarters that margin was only 300-267. But Tampa also won the time of possession by a 37:23 split and the turnover battle 2-0. Last week was the second time this season the Bucs pulled away from a close game to create a slightly misleading final score. Back in Week 2, Tampa only led Atlanta 28-25 with 10 minutes left, then tacked on 20 points from there, 13 on a pair of pick-6's. Two weeks ago, the Bucs needed a late clanked New England field goal to beat the Patriots 19-17, and three weeks ago, they lost to the Rams in LA 34-24. Tampa is also only 2-3 ATS on the season, favored by too much a couple of times.
Eagles Betting Preview
Philadelphia, meanwhile, is 2-3 on the season after upsetting the Panthers in Carolina last week 21-18. The Eagles spotted the Panthers' first three points of the game and trailed 15-3 but got a 58-yard field goal from Jake Elliot at the first-half buzzer to get within 15-6. Philly later trailed 18-13 but turned a blocked punt into the go-ahead score with three minutes left and held on from there for the outright victory as a 2.5-point dog. The Eagles only managed 273 yards of offense last week but held Carolina to 267. And while Philadelphia lost time of possession by a 35:25 split, it won the turnover battle 3-2, creating a +3 points differential. Just enough to win the game. Two weeks ago, Philly lost to Kansas City 42-30; three weeks ago, it lost to Dallas 41-21; and four weeks ago, it lost to San Francisco 17-11. Also, after out-rushing their first two opponents this season, the Eagles have been out-rushed their last three games. These teams met most recently in 2018, a 27-21 Bucs win. But that's already a long time ago for both these teams.
NFL Betting Trends
- Home teams are just 37-41 SU, 33-45 ATS in the NFL this season.
- Favorites are 48-32 SU, 35-45 ATS in the NFL this season.
- Home dogs are 9-20 SU, 14-15 ATS in the NFL this season.
- Over the last season-plus, Thursday night home teams are just 9-10 SU and 4-15 ATS.
Overs are 4-1 in Bucs games this season, which are averaging 58 total points. Unders are 3-2 in Eagles games this season, which are averaging 48 points. Unders are 43-37 in the NFL this season.
Tampa Bay at Philadelphia Prediction 10/14/21
Tampa seems to toy with some opponents; they let the Falcons and Dolphins hang around for three quarters, then hit the accelerator and won by huge margins. And they're really dangerous on offense with Brown getting integrated. Philadelphia, meanwhile, just pulled an upset on the road, which in our mind makes it an excellent candidate for a letdown this week. We're betting the Bucs here, and we're getting down early before that spread goes up any more.