Baltimore Ravens vs. New England Patriots Week 10 Pick ATS

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Date: 
November 15, 8:20 PM EST
Location:
TV:

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
BAL -7/NE +7
Total: 
43.5

The Baltimore Ravens come into Foxborough to face the New England Patriots in AFC action on Sunday Night Football. Both teams won last week. On Sunday, the Ravens were able to beat the Colts on the road, 24-10, taking their record to 6-2. They are on the road again this week, going into Gillette Stadium to take on a Patriots' team coming off the short week after nosing the Jets at the wire, 30-27, with a big comeback win to keep their season at least vaguely alive. Who can cover the spread this week?

Any Hope for the Patriots?

At face value, their chances would appear to be a bit slim. They had to pull out all the stops on MNF to beat a winless Jets' team, needing three scores in the game's last 6 minutes to overcome a deficit. On the one hand, showing the ability to finish furiously and snatch a win from the jaws of defeat shows they still have some fight in them. Cam Newton's 27-for-35 performance and leading some late critical drives was impressive, and they ran the ball nicely in spots. But it's been slim pickings this season in what has been a precipitous fall from grace.

The challenge lies in assessing the Patriots from the standpoint of where they truly are, as opposed to getting caught up in the distance they've traveled downward in the last season, going from a contender to a team struggling to stay afloat. And it's not just because of Brady leaving. But when you downgrade yourself at the QB position and don't do anything to replace that magic in the way of maybe more offensive tools, it's going to be tough. Jakobi Meyers had a big game on MNF, but getting this offense on the same page has been tricky. They can run the ball a little, but without a dependable tight end and a gaggle of receivers who disappoint more often than not, that's how you end up with a meandering and unimpactful Pats' offense.

I just think that mentally shoveling dirt atop of the Pats now could be premature. They had that ugly 4-game losing streak that nearly became five against a lousy Jets' team led by Joe Flacco last week. And getting beaten by a dilapidated 49ers squad and then the Broncos furthers the notion that this is a suffering team. But with wins over teams doing well like the Dolphins and Raiders, they've shown they can still play well in spots. It's just that those licking their chops betting against the Patriots this week might want to quell their optimism just a tad.

The Same Ravens?

They really don't seem the same. They're not covering spreads by a mile and flattening most every team in their path like last season. But last week, a road win where their offense wasn't in high-gear, showed they have more than one way to dominate an opponent. With Indy leading in the second quarter and looking good, the Baltimore defense stepped up and hammered the Colts, keeping them scoreless in the second half. So even if Lamar Jackson and Company aren't flying up and down the field, the "D" can still take over the game. Be that as it may, whether it's opponents coming around to speed or what, the Baltimore offense isn't what it was last season, with Jackson's aerial game having taken a step back. However, they remain the top rushing team in the league, and that doesn't bode well for a Patriots' defense that hasn't thrived in that area at all this season.

Challenges for the Patriots in this Spot

With the Ravens, you have the top defense in the league in terms of allowing points. On top of that, they're a “D” that can make a lot of big splash plays and turn the game with big plays—turnovers, key sacks, and the like. They're pretty solid against the run, which is now the featured part of the New England offense. When you watch the New England offense struggle so mightily for almost the whole game against a Jets' defense that only has a fraction of Baltimore's venom, it makes you wonder about what they can rightfully be expected to produce this Sunday night.

Which Baltimore Can You Expect to See?

Again, it's a mixed bag. At 6-2, they're in the same spot they were last season, but it just doesn't feel the same. With all the menace they have in the run-game with Jackson, Gus Edwards, JK Dobbins, and Mark Ingram, they get opposing defenses to stack the box, and Jackson needs to take advantage, and through half a season, he really hasn't. And you typically don't want to lay a bunch of points on the road with an offense that looks markedly diminished. After all, a big part of why the Ravens are fetching such big spreads is based on what they did last year on offense, something we're not seeing a lot of this season.

Ravens vs. Patriots Prediction 11/15/20

I'm not certain that everyone is willing to see the writing on the wall, but that pertains to both teams. Unlike last season, there isn't much suggesting the Ravens will crack the elite of the AFC this year. But the Patriots might have actually sunk to levels lower than what people are thinking. And at this level, the inadequacies of the Ravens manifest to a lower degree. I see their defense and run-game being enough to get some separation on the Pats, as they get out of Foxborough with the cover and win. I'll take the Ravens.

Free Pick: 
Take the Ravens -7
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