Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins Week 10 Odds, Free Pick ATS

November 11, 8:20 PM EST

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
Balt -8.5/Mia +8.5

The Ravens are right where they should be while the Dolphins look like they’re headed toward another playoff-less season, heading into this week’s edition of NFL Thursday night football betting action.

Baltimore just won a crazy game over Minnesota last Sunday while Miami put an end to a seven-game losing skid. But these two teams are at opposite ends of the AFC playoff picture.

Home dogs are no great bet this season in the NFL, and that’s what we’ve got for this game. Which way are we going here with our free TNF Week 10 pick?

Ravens-Dolphins NFL Betting Lines

The Week 10 NFL betting odds opened Baltimore as a seven-point favorite for this game, then let the action decide which way the hook would go. Also, the over/under here opened at right around 47.5, then dropped a point.

Baltimore Betting Preview

The Ravens are 6-2 on the season after outlasting the Vikings Sunday 34-31 in overtime. Baltimore took an early 3-0 lead on Minnesota but trailed 17-10 at the half. The Ravens then gave up a 98-yard kick-off return for a touchdown to begin the second half but used a 21-0 run to lead by seven with three minutes to go. Baltimore then allowed the Vikings to drive 75 yards to a game-tying score but won the game in OT on a defensive stop, a 72-yard drive, and - what else - a Tucker field goal.

The Ravens out-gained Minnesota 500-318, made 36 first downs to just 13 for the Vikes, ran the ball for 247 yards, and dominated time of possession by a 46:24 split.

Baltimore has now out-gained six of its last seven opponents and out-rushed five of its previous seven foes. It’s also 6-1 over that span.

At 6-2 overall, the Ravens lead the AFC North by a game over second-place Pittsburgh. Baltimore also trails Tennessee by just a half-game in the battle for the best record in the AFC.

Baltimore Betting Preview

The Dolphins, meanwhile, after going 10-6 last season, are just 2-7 this season, after beating 1-8 Houston previous week 17-9. Miami, with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback, turned an early takeaway into a 7-0 lead, led 17-6 at the half, produced nothing offensively in the second half but hung on anyway for the win and the cover at -4.

Miami actually got out-gained by the Texans 272-262, produced just 47 yards on the ground, and turned the ball over five times! Fortunately, they were playing Houston.

The Dolphins have now been out-gained by seven of their nine opponents this season and out-rushed by eight of nine foes.

At 2-7, Miami is three games behind 5-4 New England in the scrum for the seventh and last AFC playoff spot.

Ravens-Dolphins Recent History

Baltimore is 8-1 SU, 9-0 ATS over the last nine meetings with Miami. Most recently, two seasons ago, the Ravens routed the Dolphins 59-10, covering at -7. In fact, Baltimore has won the last three games vs. Miami by an average score of 49-5!

More Picks: UNC vs. Pitt Week 11 Point Spread Pick

NFL Betting Trends

Home teams are just 63-70 SU, 55-77 ATS in the NFL this season.

Favorites are 81-55 SU, 58-77 ATS in the NFL this season.

Home dogs are 16-34 SU, 24-26 ATS in the NFL this season.

Home teams on Thursday nights are just 11-12 SU, 7-16 ATS over the last season-plus.

Totals Report

Overs are 5-3 in Ravens games this season, which are averaging 52 total points.

The Under is 5-4 in Dolphins games this season, which are averaging 44 points.

The Under is 73-61 in the NFL this season.

Ravens at Dolphins Prediction ATS 11/11/21

Baltimore is fighting for the top seed in the AFC playoffs, while Miami looks like it’s playing out the string on another lost season. And regardless of who plays QB for the Dolphins, that offensive unit stinks. Also, the Ravens are out-rushing opponents this season by 70 yards per game, while Miami is getting out-rushed by 36 YPG. And teams that win the ground battles in the NFL cover the spread about 65 percent of the time. We’re betting Baltimore here, minus the points. 

Free Pick: 
Take Baltimore -8.5