Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills Odds & Picks

Date: 
January 16, 8:15 PM EST
Location:
TV:

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
Balt +2.5/Buff -2.5
Moneyline: 
Balt +120/Buff -145
Total: 
49.5

Two great young quarterbacks square off for what might be the first of many playoff battles when Lamar Jackson and the Ravens meet Josh Allen and the Bills in an AFC divisional-round bout Saturday night in Buffalo. Both those guys played great games last week, leading their teams to wild-card victories, and now they'll go against each other for the second time in their NFL careers, with a berth in the AFC championship game on the line. The oddsmakers and the betting public seem to see eye-to-eye on this game, as neither the spread nor the total has moved since coming out. Who do we like here for our free NFL playoffs betting pick?

NFL Divisional-Round Playoff Betting Odds

NFL playoffs betting odds opened Buffalo at -2.5 over Baltimore, with an over/under of 49.5/50 depending on which sportsbook you bet. Both those figures then held steady into Thursday.

According to Sagarin's NFL ratings at USAToday.com, the Bills should be favored by about half a point for this game.

Ravens vs. Bills Playoff Betting Preview

No. 6 seed Baltimore reached the divisional round of these NFL playoffs by beating Tennessee in an AFC wild-card game last week 20-13. The Ravens actually spotted the Titans the first 10 points of the game but rallied to take a 10-10 tie into halftime. Baltimore then drove the opening possession of the second half 77 yards to a touchdown and held on from there for the outright victory as a three-point underdog.

The Ravens out-gained Tennessee 401-209, out-rushed the Titans 236-51, stuffing Titans RB Derrick Henry to the tune of just 40 yards on 13 carries, and won time of possession by a 34:26 split.

Baltimore has now out-rushed each of its last seven opponents, all by large margins. The Ravens are also 7-0 ATS over that span.

No. 2 seed Buffalo, meanwhile, reached the divisional round by beating Indianapolis last week 27-24. The Bills spotted the Colts the first three points of the game and trailed 10-7 late into the second quarter but used a red-zone stop and a subsequent 96-yard touchdown drive to take a 14-10 lead into the locker room. Buffalo then scored the first 10 points out of the locker room and held on from there for its first playoff win in 25 years. However, the Bills couldn't quite hold on for the cover as seven-point favorites. Prior to last week, Buffalo had covered eight spreads in a row. The Bills got out-gained by Indianapolis 472-397, out-rushed 163-96, and lost time of possession by a 34:26 split. So Buffalo has now been out-rushed five times over its last nine games. But the Bills are also 9-1 SU, 8-2 ATS over their last ten games, and the only outright loss during that span came on that Hail Mary against Arizona. These two teams have played five common opponents this season; Buffalo is 4-2 SU but 2-4 ATS against the Chiefs, Titans, Patriots, Steelers, and Colts, while Baltimore is only 2-5 SU, 3-4 ATS vs. that lineup of foes. These teams last met back in Week 14 of last season, a 24-17 Ravens win. Baltimore covered that day at -6.5 while the game played under a total of 44, as the teams combined for just 466 yards of total offense. Word is there's half a chance snow could fall during this game. If that's the case, we would give a slight advantage in the quarterback match-up to Allen.

NFL Playoffs Betting Trends

  • Home teams played 2-4 both SU and ATS in the NFL playoffs last week.
  • Favorites played 4-2 SU but 2-4 ATS in the NFL playoffs last week.
  • Home teams are 16-4 SU, 12-7-1 ATS in the divisional rounds of the playoffs over the last five seasons.
  • Favorites are 15-5 SU, 11-8-1 ATS in the divisional round of the playoffs over the last five seasons.

Totals Report

Unders played 9-7 in Ravens games this season, which averaged 48 total points. Then last week's game against Tennessee played under a total of 53. Overs played 10-5-1 in Bills games this season, which averaged 55 points. Then last week's game against Indianapolis played over a total of 50. Overs played 4-2 in the NFL playoffs last weekend. Overs are 12-8 over the last five NFL divisional rounds.

Baltimore at Buffalo Prediction 1/16/21

Baltimore played +83 rushing yards per game this season while Buffalo played -12 in that department. And according to our homework over the last ten seasons or so, teams that win the ground battles in the NFL cover the spread about 65 percent of the time. Also, the Ravens own the better defense in this match-up. Also, the Bills are banged-up on offense. Also, while home teams and favorites own SU and ATS edges in the divisional round of the playoffs over recent seasons, those involved teams with bye weeks. Neither of these teams had last week off. We like Baltimore here for the win on the money line.

Free Pick: 
Take the Ravens +120 on the ML