Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers Week 10 Odds & Pick

November 10, 8:15 PM EST

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
Atl -3/Car +3

Hoping to keep pace in a mediocre divisional race, the Falcons visit the struggling Panthers for an NFC South bout Thursday night in Charlotte. Atlanta just took a tough loss to the Chargers last Sunday, but it’s actually been playing some winning football as of late. On the other hand, Carolina is already playing out the string on what looks like another lost season. Which way are we going here with our free NFL Thursday night betting pick?

Falcons-Panthers NFL Betting Lines

The Week 10 NFL betting odds opened Atlanta as a two-point divisional road favorite for Thursday night, with an over/under of right around 41. Early betting action then bumped the Falcons to -3 and steamed that total to 44.5 which has since settled back to it's opener of 41 points.

Atlana Betting Preview

Atlanta won four of six games from Weeks 3-8 but lost a tough one at home to the Chargers last Sunday, 20-17. The Falcons scored the first 10 points of the game but trailed 14-10 at the half. Atlanta then scored the first seven points of the second half to re-take the lead but allowed Los Angeles to tie it with a field goal with five minutes left, then lost on another LA field goal at the buzzer. The Falcons actually had a great chance to stave off defeat and maybe even win the game, but a late takeaway turned into a giveaway, and three plays later, it was over. Atlanta also came up just short of pushing the spread as a three-point home dog. The Falcons got out-gained by the Chargers 336-315 but out-rushed Los Angeles 201-91 and won the time of possession by a 32:28 split. Atlanta has now been out-gained by each of its last eight opponents, but it’s also out-rushed eight of its nine opponents this season. The Falcons are also 6-3 ATS. At 4-5 overall, Atlanta is tied with Tampa Bay for the lead in the NFC South, although the Falcons trail in the head-to-head tie-breaker. Atlanta also only needs one more win over its last eight games to play over its season wins over/under, which was 4.5.

Carolina Betting Preview

Carolina, meanwhile, following a couple of inspired performances, got blown out last Sunday at Cincinnati 42-21. The Panthers, playing as seven-point dogs, allowed the Bengals to score touchdowns on four of their first five possessions of the game and trailed 35-0 at the half. Cincinnati later only made the final score a little more interesting, with a couple of scores in the final minutes. Carolina got out-gained by Cincinnati 464-228, out-rushed 241-64, turned the ball over three times, and lost time of possession by a 39:21 split. Along the way, the Panthers benched “starting” quarterback PJ Walker, replacing him in the second half with Baker Mayfield. However, the word is Walker will make his fifth straight start Thursday night. So the Panthers have now been out-gained by five of their last seven opponents and out-rushed by four of their last six foes. They’re also now 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS since canning their head coach.At 2-7 overall, Carolina needs five wins over its last eight games to play over its wins O/U, which was 6.5. And that just doesn’t look like it’s gonna happen. These two teams just met two weeks ago, that crazy 37-34 Atlanta overtime victory. The Falcons led that game 34-28 with 30 seconds left and tried to give it away, but Carolina’s kicker didn’t want it. Neither team ever led that game by more than one score, and while Atlanta won it, the Panthers covered at +4.5. Also, that game played over a total of 41 with nearly a quarter to spare, as the teams combined for nearly 900 yards of total offense. These teams have played six common opponents so far this season; the Bengals, 49ers, Buccaneers, Browns, Rams, and Saints. The Falcons played those foes to 2-4 SU, 5-1 ATS, and -110 yards per game, Carolina 2-4 both SU and ATS, and -115 YPG.

Falcons-Panthers Recent History

Atlanta is 11-3 SU and 10-4 ATS over the last 14 meetings with Carolina. But the teams split their season series in 2020 and 2021, and the last five meetings have been decided by an average of five points.

NFL Betting Trends

  • Home teams are 73-59 SU and 65-65 ATS in the NFL this season.
  • Favorites are 82-52 SU and 56-75 ATS in the NFL this season.
  • Home dogs are 24-32 SU and 32-23 ATS in the NFL this season.

Totals Report

  • The Overs are 5-4 in Falcons games this season which are averaging 49 total points.
  • The Unders are 5-4 in Panthers games this season which are averaging 45 points.
  • After going 9-4 last week, the Unders are a lopsided 81-53 (60 percent) in the NFL this season.

Atlanta at Carolina Week 10 Prediction ATS

Atlanta, playing the better ball as of late, owns the better quarterback situation, the better running game, and the better run defense. Also, the Falcons are out-rushing opponents by 56 YPG, while Carolina is getting out-rushed by 34 YPG. And so far this NFL season, teams that win the ground battles are covering the spread at a 68 percent rate (91-42). It doesn’t matter who’s playing QB for the Panthers; we’re betting on Atlanta, minus the points.

Free Pick: 
Take Atlanta -3