AFC Conference Pick - New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs Odds and ATS Predictions

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Date: 
January 20, 6:40 PM EST
Location:
TV:

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
Chiefs -3
Total: 
56.5

The Kansas City Chiefs and New England Patriots are set to square off in the AFC Championship Game. Kansas City was the top overall seed in the AFC and will host the number-two New England Patriots on Sunday. This is a rematch of a regular season game that was won by the Patriots, 43-40.

Both the Chiefs and Patriots had little trouble in winning their AFC Divisional Round Game. The Chiefs blew out the Indianapolis Colts, 31-13, in a dominating performance. New England got out to a 35-7 halftime lead and held on to beat the Los Angeles Chargers by a score of 41-28. Kansas City is a three-point favorite over the Patriots in this game.

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Mahomes Shines in Playoff Debut

The Chiefs were the highest scoring team in the NFL during the regular season, averaging 35 points per game. Kansas City has weapons all over the field, and the likely MVP in quarterback Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes threw for 278 passing yards in his postseason debut but failed to throw a touchdown pass. You can guarantee that Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots will have something up their sleeves for the young QB.

Kansas City used their running game to chew up clock and eliminate the Indianapolis Colts. The Chiefs had four different players score a rushing touchdown in that game, but Damien Williams was the true star. Williams had 25 carries for 129 yards against the Colts and appears to be getting better with each game. The Chiefs have struggled to stop teams on defense for much of the season, but their balanced offense should give them a chance in this game.

Patriots Run All Over Chargers

The Chiefs weren't the only team to use their running game to reach this game. New England ran the ball 34 times for 155 yards against the Los Angeles Chargers and kept pressure off of Tom Brady. Rookie running back Sony Michel had 24 carries for 129 yards and found the end zone on three different occasions. The Patriots running game allowed them to chew up clock against the Colts, and they will likely use this same strategy against the Chiefs.

Oh, and the Patriots still have Tom Brady slinging the ball all over the field. Brady struggled a bit during the regular season but looked sharp against the Chargers. The aging quarterback completed 34 of his 44 pass attempts for 343 yards and one touchdown. If the Patriots are able to protect Brady, then he should be able to pick apart a weak Kansas City Chiefs secondary.

Patriots at Chiefs Prediction 01/20/2019

Kansas City looked like one of the best teams in the NFL all season long, and that didn't change in their first playoff win. The Chiefs will have home-field advantage for this game, and all signs point to them reaching the Super Bowl. But, as long as the Patriots still have Tom Brady and Bill Belichick, I refuse to bet against them. They have done this too many times, and they know how to win on the road in the playoffs.

Free Pick: 
Bet the New England Patriots +3.0