NFL Dog Of The Week Picks
If you’re looking for our NFL dog of the week picks you’ve landed on the right page. Each week throughout the pro football season we’ll give out one to three of our top underdog plays. Our team of handicappers digs deep into the numbers and the injury reports looking for the games where we believe that we hold an over the lines maker. So rest assured these are not some throw the dart against the board and hope for the best. These are highly researched opinions against the spread that we believe give our visitors a great chance to pad their bankrolls. Bookmark this page and return throughout week as we add additional suggested wagers.
2019 NFL DOTW Picks Record W/L 16-11-1 Units +3.00
We'll start posting our underdog ATS predictions in the afternoon of Thursday, Sept 5/2019. Keep in mind that we may add suggested wagers up until 12:00 PM ET on Sunday of each week.
Super Bowl 54
The 49ers with DE Dee Ford and SS Jaquiski Tartt in the lineup are a formidable defense. Here’s a solid stat for you. In the 12 games that Tartt played, San Francisco recorded a top three defensive performance against their opponent in seven of those games.
The Chiefs rely heavily on TE Travis Kelce who was by far the team’s leading pass receiver. SF allowed just 66 catches to Tight Ends this season to rank tied for 10th spot and allowed the fewest yards (552).
KC does have two speedsters on the outside in Tyreek Hill and Sammy Watkins but QB Patrick Mahomes will need to get time to throw to have success targeting the WRs. That might be a problem facing a 49ers defense that registered the 2nd highest pressure percentage in the league (28.7%) and allowed the lowest yardage per pass attempt (5.9).
We feel that the Niners will be able to run against the Chiefs. Kansas City’s run defense improved on base yardage in the second half of the regular season but still finished with the 26th ranking in yards allowed per game and 28th in yards per carry. When you factor in that this was a team that trailed in only one game at the half in games that Mahomes started, the numbers are concerning for KC backers.
Take the 49ers +1.5
The Titans were out yarded 530 to 371 but came back from a 10-0 deficit to get the win on a last minute TD to win 35-32. There was no give-up in that game and we feel that this game has a potential to go back and forth throughout with the margin likely to not exceed a TD. That has us on the visitor getting the 7 points. Take the Titans +7 L
Some of you may be taking the points and the Texans possibly basing it on their victory earlier this season on this very same field. Keep in mind that the Chiefs were without two starting offensive lineman and WR Sammy Watkins for that game and all three are set to go this week. Another point to take into consideration is that WR Tyreek Hill was returning from a four-game absence and may not have been at his best in that game. That said the number is too high on Kansas City for us to play them, but we do think that the Chiefs team total of OVER 30.5 points W offers some value and we’d suggest that you play it.
We're going to go with the Titans +5 W to keep this game close enough and possibly pull off the straight up win. Check back later for possibly additionall underdog plays.
We’re stuck with Devlin Hodges at QB backed up by James Paxton, but the Ravens are expected to rest a lot of key offensive players. Take Pittsburgh +1 L
The Eagles defense is a worry, but they are lacking offensive weapons and keep in mind in their overtime win earlier this month over the Giants TE Zack Ertz (out today) was the leading receiver by a large margin with nine catches and 91 yards. Take the NY Giants +3.5 L
We think that the Cards can get closer this time around. Take the Arizona Cardinals +8 W.
The Bears get back key defensive end Akiem Hicks who has been out since Week 5. Chicago had 17 sacks in their first five games and 13 in the eight games he has missed (Note he also missed Week 4). The Bears QB Mitchell Trubinsky has looked much better in recent games and adequate play today should have Chicago getting the money. Take Chicago +4.5 L
We like the Panthers to turn it around and get within the number. Take Carolina +6 P.
We like the Bills +6.5 L, Jacksonville +3.5 L and Denver +9 W.
The Titans have won four of the last five games that incidentally are the five games that QB Ryan Tannehill has started. Their only loss being on the road in Carolina where they lost by 10. They won the yardage battle 431 to 370 but lost the turnover battle finishing -2 on the day.
Today they face a Colts team that came away with 19-17 win in their first meeting of the season back in Week 2 with Marcus Mariota behind center. Indianapolis had trouble running the ball for the most part with starting RB Marlon Mack (ruled out) picking up only 51 yards on 20 carries and Jordan Wilkins getting one big run for 55 yards on a 5 for 82 day. Colts starting WR T.Y. Hilton (ruled out) was the leading pass catcher on the day with four catches for 43 yards and one TD. Take the Titans +1 W
The Bucs haven’t covered a game since the 70’s but we’re going back to the well again this week. Tampa Bay’s QB J. Winston has been a turnover machine, but the Falcons are near the bottom in turnover margin. Take the Bucs +3.5 W. We also like the Panthers +10 W who we think came out flat against the Falcons after that devasting loss to the Packers in Week 10. We’ll also go with the Cowboys +5.5 W that live and die by the health of their offensive line.
The 49ers run game is struggling and with RB Matt Breida looking like he will sit this out it’s unlikewly to improve this week. He was the team’s leading rusher in their earlier meeting a game that San Francisco won by just three. The venue changes to Levi’s Stadium for the rematch, but the short week for the host may negate that advantage. Take the Cardinals +10 P (bad beat (Push) last play SF fumble return for a TD).
We’re running late, so we’ll just toss out our pick - the Vikings +3.5 -115 W
The Texans won the earlier meeting in Houston 13-12 surviving a failed two-point convert attempt by the Jaguars in the last 30 seconds. The game was QB Gardner Minshew’s first career NFL start and statistically he out did the Texans QB D. Watson in both passing and rushing yards. Jacksonville will be without the traded Jaylen Ramsey at corner, but they played the earlier meeting without their other starting CB A.J. Bouye. Additionally, the Jags were without their starting LT Cam Robinson and his backup Cedric Ogbuehi and starting DE Yannick Ngakoue. Both teams have some injuries to deal with in the rematch. Houston will be without their starters LT Laremy Tunsil, WR Will Fuller, DE J.J. Watt, FS Tashaun Gipson Sr., and CB Bradley Roby. Jacksonville is expected to be without a couple of starts in WR Dede Westbrook, LB Leon Jacobs and CB D. J. Hayden.
Minshew is more experienced now, he should have more protection with LT Cam Robinson back and DE JJ Watt out. The Jag defense is weaker in the secondary than their earlier meeting, but the with WR Will fuller out we’ll consider that a draw. The pass rush will be more formidable with DE Yannick Ngakoue in and rookie DE Josh Allen (5 sacks last 4 games) coming on strong and with Houston without their starting left tack QB Deshaun Watson may be running for his life on every passing play. Take the Jags +1 L
It's tough playing in Seattle, but we like the matchup for the Bucs WRs against the Seahawks secondary. Take the Bucs +5 L.
The Giants got behind early last week which made them one-dimensional than they’d like. The inclement weather didn’t help either with QB Danil Jones fumbling the ball THREE TIMES. This week they visit the Lions who match up well with them. Detroit is near the bottom of the league in both run defense and sacks. Take the Giants +6.5 W.
The Panthers run defense has been mediocre at best but the San Francisco running game isn’t the same without FB Kyle Juszczyk and RT Mike McGlinchey. The Panthers have yet to lose on the road this season and we wouldn’t be shocked to see them keep that trend rolling. Take the Panthers +4.5 L
We like the Lions to give the Packers all they can handle on Monday night and a straight up win would not suurprise us. Detroit is a couple of plays away from being 4-0 on the season and have had Green Bay's number taking both matches last season. Take the Lions +4 W
The Cardinals have looked terrible at times this season, but the Bengals excluding their opener in Seattle haven’t looked much better. In the Seahawks game WR John Ross exploded for 158 yards and two touchdowns. He’s now lost for the season and with A.J. Green still out that leaves only Tyler Boyd as the only proven WR. The Bengals haven’t reached 20 points in their last three games and the lack of a running game may have them under 20 again this week. Cincinnati has had problems with misdirection and Arizona has the weapons in the backfield to exploit that this week. Take Arizona +3 W
This week we’re basing our two dog picks more on who is not playing than who is.
The Chargers are without their top two tight ends and will likely be missing two of their three starting WRs. Miami has played a ridiculously tough schedule facing three of the better teams in the NFL in Baltimore, New England and Dallas. Take the Dolphins +14.5 L
Another team that can be excused for having a losing record is the Raiders. Both of Oakland’s losses have come against what look like top-flight clubs (KC and MIN). The Colts have been playing well but are dealing with some key injuries. Top receiving threat WR Ty Hilton is not expected to play and while the Raiders can be exploited by TEs the lack of much of a threat at the wide out position could have the safeties moving up to support. On the other side of the ball three starters including tackling machine Darius Leonard and potentially four could be out this week CB Pierre Desir is unable to go. We think the Raiders will be able to run the ball today and are a radar as a potential upset play. Take the Raiders + 6.5 W
In their last visit here in December of last season the Ravens ran for 198 yards but passed for only 123. QB Lamar Jackson appears to be much improved in the passing game. Both WR Marquise Brown and TE Mark Andrews have over 200 yards receiveing. Take the Ravens +5 P
We’re going with another two pack in Week 2. We like the Raiders +7 L to keep it close against the Chiefs who are expected to be missing their starting left tackle Eric Fisher and star WR/KR Tyreek Hill is on IR. We’re also betting on the Jaguars +7.5 W to battle the Texans throughout in another divisional contest.
On sunday we'll take the Colts getting +7 -125 W (buy up) against the Chargers and on Monday we'll go with the Texans +7 -120 W (buy up) against the Saints.in the early game.
Nothing of value on the board this week.
Tough card - We'll take a shot on the 49ers +10.5 L against the Rams.
We have a trio of picks today. Jacksonville +3.5 W, Buffalo +13.5 W, and Oakland +3 -115 W.
We're going to go with the Raiders +3 L to keep it close and maybe pull of the upset, and the 49ers +3.5 W to give the Seahawks all they can handle.
We're going to take the Falcons +3.5 L, 49ers +3.5 W, and Bears +3 W.
A trio of plays made it for this weeks dog of the week. Take the Bills +3 W. Denver +3 W and Tennessee +4 L.
Two plays stand out to us this week, the Lions +4 W hosting the Panthers and the Broncos +7 W.
We're going right back to Buffalo for our spread dog of the Week Bills +7 W
We have a trio this week. We think that the Browns can keep this close at home. Take Cleveland +8 L. We also like the Buffalo +10 and the Green Bay Packers +6.
Nothing appeals to us this week.
Take the NY Giants +4 W
We like the Bucs +3 L to get back on track after the bye against the Falcons and the Broncos +7 W at Bovada to give the Rams a battle in snowy Denver.
Our best play is on the Raiders +5 L this afternoon against the Chargers.
The Lions can win this outright, but I'll play them at +3. Take Detroit +3 -125 W. I'm also going ot go against public opinion and back the Broncos +4 P on Monday night against the high flying Chiefs.
Were on three games in Week 3. Broncos +6 L, Washington +3 -120 W, Detroit +7 -120 W
The Lions should rebound from their blowout loss on Monday. Take Detroit +6.5 W
I'm going to go with the Cowboys in their opener against the panthers. Take Dallas +3. L