Wisconsin Badgers vs. Michigan Wolverines Spread Pick
The Wisconsin Badgers try to resume their abbreviated and interrupted season when they visit Ann Arbor to take on Michigan at the Big House Saturday night. The Badgers are playing their first game in three weeks while the Wolverines probably wish they had taken the last couple of weeks off. Wisconsin is rarely favored at Michigan, but it is for this game. Who do we like here for this week's NCAA football pick?
College Football Betting Odds
College football betting odds opened Wisconsin at around -2.5 for this game, with an over/under of right around 51.5. Early betting action then bumped the Badgers all the way to -4.5, and that total to 54.
Badgers Betting Preview
Wisconsin opened its season three weeks ago with a 45-7 romp over Illinois. The Badgers then had games against Nebraska and Purdue canceled due to some positive virus tests. So Wisconsin is coming off an extended break, with limited practicing.
With freshman quarterback Graham Mertz making his first college start in place of the injured Jack Coan, the Badgers turned an early Illini turnover into a touchdown, then scored twice in the last minute of the first half to lead 28-7 into the locker room. Wisconsin then basically cruised home from there for the win and the easy cover as 20-point favorites.
The Badgers out-gained Illinois 430-218, won first downs 23-8, and dominated time of possession by a 43:17 split.
Mertz connected on 20/21 passes for 248 yards, and five touchdowns against Illinois, then tested positive for the virus. He would have missed the Badgers' last two games, per Big Ten protocol, but those games got canceled anyway. Now it looks like Mertz will return to action along with the team Saturday.
Wolverines Betting Preview
Meanwhile, Michigan opened its season with a convincing win at Minnesota but is 0-2 both SU and ATS since, after losing at Indiana last week 38-21. The Wolverines, who owned a 24-game winning streak over the Hoosiers, gave up an early Indiana score, tied it at 7-7 a few moments later, then gave up a 17-0 run to trail 24-7 at the half. Michigan got within 24-14 early in the third quarter but immediately allowed another Hoosiers score and couldn't recover, losing outright as a four-point favorite.
The Wolverines got out-gained by Indiana 460-357, managed just 13 yards rushing, got dominated in time of possession by a 39:21 tilt, and lost the turnover battle 2-0.
In other words, Michigan got its ass kicked.
Two weeks ago, the Wolverines, favored by three touchdowns, got upset at home by rival Michigan State 27-24. And that loss looks even worse following the Spartans' terrible performance against Iowa last week.
Michigan leads the all-time series with Wisconsin 51-16-1, but the Badgers are 6-4 SU, 7-3 ATS over the last ten meetings. Last year Wisconsin jumped out to a 35-0 lead on the Wolverines in Madison, won 35-14, and covered easily as a three-point favorite.
College Football Betting Trends
- Wisconsin is 53-16 SU, 39-29-1 ATS in Big Ten play under Coach Chryst.
- Wisconsin is 14-4 ATS as a road favorite under Coach Chryst.
- Michigan is 33-14 SU, 24-23 ATS in Big Ten play under Coach Harbaugh.
- Get more details: Wisconsin at Michigan Match-up Stats
Wisconsin's win over Illinois three weeks ago played over a total of 51.5 when the Badgers kicked an otherwise meaningless field goal with 56 seconds left in the game.
Overs are 2-1 in Michigan games this season, which are averaging 61 total points against an average over/under of 53.
Wisconsin Badgers vs. Michigan Wolverines Prediction
Wisconsin looked great against Illinois but come on, that was Illinois. The Badgers are still breaking in a new QB and a new lead running back. Meanwhile, this may be Michigan's last stand for Coach Harbaugh. Falling to 1-3 will be embarrassing, and the talk has begun about Harbaugh's departure. After playing below expectations, the last two weeks do the Wolverines have a bounce-back effort in them? We believe they do. We'll go against the betting flow and take Michigan plus the points here.