Wisconsin Badgers at Purdue Boilermakers Point Spread - Free Pick

October 23, 3:00 PM EDT

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
Wis -3.5/Purd +3.5

Coming off an upset of the No. 2 team in the country, Purdue hopes to avoid a letdown when it hosts Wisconsin for a Big Ten West bout Saturday afternoon in West Lafayette. The Boilermakers thoroughly out-played the Hawkeyes last week; can they get up for another big game this week? The Boilers are also looking to snap a 14-game losing skid in the rivalry with the Badgers. Purdue’s lined as a three-point home dog here; which way are we going with our free college football betting pick?

Wisconsin-Purdue Betting Odds

This week's college football betting lines opened the Badgers at -2.5 with an over/under of right around 39.5. Early betting action then bumped Bucky to -3 and now -3.5, and the total line to 40 and now 41.

Wisconsin Betting Preview

The Badgers are 3-3 on the season after fending off Army last week 20-14. Wisconsin broke the ice with a score early in the second quarter and led 13-0 at the half. The Badgers then let the Black Knights get to within 13-7 in the fourth quarter and punted the ball away. But they then forced a turnover which led to the game-clinching score. Still, Wisconsin came up short against the spread as a 14-point favorite. The Badgers out-gained Army, but only by a margin of 310-266, and out-rushed the run-happy Knights 198-179. So Wisconsin, thanks mainly to its defense, has out-gained and out-rushed every opponent this season except Michigan. The Badgers looked bad in losing back-to-back games to Notre Dame and Michigan a few weeks ago, but they're 2-0 since, including a 24-0 shut-out of Illinois. The Boilermakers, meanwhile, are 4-2 on the season after upsetting No. 2 Iowa in Iowa City last week 24-7. Purdue, playing as an 11-point underdog, took the early lead with a touchdown late in the first quarter and led 14-7 at the half. The Boilers then scored the only 10 points of the second half, icing the game with a TD early in the fourth, for their biggest win since upsetting the hell out of Ohio State three seasons ago.

Purdue Betting Preview

Purdue out-gained the Hawkeyes 464-271, won the turnover battle 4-1, and dominated the time of possession by a 35:25 split. So the Boilermakers have out-gained each of their six opponents this season. Two games ago, Purdue out-gained Minnesota by 148 yards but lost 20-13. Three games ago, the Boilers beat Illinois 13-9. And four games ago, they lost gamely to Notre Dame 27-13. At 2-1 in conference play, Purdue sits a half-game behind first-place Iowa in the Big Ten West, with 1-2 Wisconsin a game and a half out.

Badgers-Boilermakers Recent History

Wisconsin owns a 14-game winning streak in the rivalry with Purdue, going 10-4 ATS along the way. Most recently, two seasons ago, the Badgers ran the ball for 403 yards, won 45-24 but came up one score short of the money at -24. College Football Betting Trends Wisconsin is 21-9 ATS on the road over the last six-plus seasons. Purdue is 7-3 ATS in its last ten games as a home dog.

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Totals Report

The Under is 4-2 in Badgers games this season, which are averaging just 39 total points. The Under is 0-6 in Boilers games, which are averaging just 38 points. Overs are 3-1 over the last four meetings between these two teams, which have trended high-scoring.

Wisconsin Badgers (3-3 SU, 2-4 ATS) at Purdue Boilermakers

Purdue caught Iowa at a perfect time last week, ripe for a letdown. Now the Boilers qualify as perfect candidates to do the same. Wisconsin, if it’s got its shit together, is just the better team here, with our preferred style of play; run the ball, keep the ball away from the Purdue passing game and play great defense. We’re betting Bucky, minus the points.
Free Pick: 
Take Wisconsin -3.5