Virginia Cavaliers vs. Clemson Tigers ACC Championship Pick

December 7, 7:30 PM EST

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
Clemson -28

Clemson shoots for its fifth conference championship in a row when it meets Virginia in the ACC title game Saturday evening in Charlotte. The defending national champion Tigers are also chasing a berth in the upcoming College Football Playoff, but thanks to a weak schedule, they might not have any room for error. They're also favored by four touchdowns. Who do we like here for our free college football pick?

College Football Betting Odds

College football's ACC championship game betting odds opened Clemson at -28 over Virginia, with an over/under of right around 55. Both those figures were holding steady in the early betting action.

Cavaliers vs. Tigers Set-Up

Virginia rides a four-game winning streak into Saturday, after finally defeating rival Virginia Tech last week 39-30. The Cavaliers, who had lost 15 in a row to the Hokies, jumped out to a 13-3 lead but trailed 30-27 midway through the fourth quarter. UVA then scored the last 12 points of the game, the game-clinching six on a sack-fumble recovery in the end zone with a minute to go, for the victory and its first ACC Coastal Division title.

On the day, the Cavs produced 492 yards of total offense but gave up 483 yards of Virginia Tech offense. Virginia also lost time of possession by a 34:26 split but won the turnover battle 3-1.

Two weeks ago, the Cavaliers beat Liberty 55-27; three weeks ago, they defeated Georgia Tech 33-28, and four weeks ago, they beat North Carolina 38-31. So Virginia is averaging 41 points over its last four games, but it's also allowing 29 per over that span.

At 9-3 overall, the Cavaliers are headed for a decent bowl, but a case could be made they've already reached their goal for this season with that division title.

Clemson, meanwhile, flies a 27-game winning streak into Saturday, after disposing of rival South Carolina in the Poinsettia Bowl last week 38-3. The Tigers scored the first 14 points of the game, let the Gamecocks kick a field goal, then scored the final 24 points of the game for the win and the cover as 27-point favorites.

On the day Clemson out-gained South Carolina 527-174, made 30 first downs to just nine for the 'Cocks, won the ground battle 211-69 and held a 35:25 time of possession advantage.

The Tigers' defense still hasn't allowed 300 yards in a game this season.

Two weeks ago, Clemson beat Wake Forest 52-3, and three weeks ago, they beat North Carolina State 55-10. So the Tigers have won their last three games by a combined scored of 145-16, covering spreads of 27, 34, and 35 points.

At 12-0 overall, Clemson sits at No. 3 in this week's CFP standings. But thanks to a weak schedule, the Tigers will probably still need to win this game to guarantee themselves a spot in the Playoff.

These two teams last met back in 2013, a 59-10 Clemson victory.

College Football Betting Trends

  • Virginia is 17-8 SU, 15-9-1 ATS with Bryce Perkins at quarterback.
  • Virginia is 4-6 ATS its last ten times out as a double-digit dog.
  • Clemson is 23-0 SU, 17-5-1, with Trevor Lawrence starting at QB.
  • Clemson is 4-1 ATS this season when favored by between 24 and 31 points.

Totals Report

  • Overs are 8-4 in Cavaliers games this season, which are averaging 58 total points.
  • Unders are 7-5 in Tigers games this season, even though they're averaging 55 points.

Virginia at Clemson Prediction 12/7/2019

Barring a minor miracle, Clemson is going to win this game; the only unknown is the margin of victory. We expect the Tigers to put up between 40 and 45 points, but we can also see Perkins leading Virginia to 21-24 points, which would put the Wahoos seven points inside the cover. We'll take UVA and the points here.

Free Pick: 
Take Virginia +28
Get our College Picks with analysis on the championship games.