Virginia Cavaliers at Miami Hurricanes Week 5 Pick

September 30, 7:30 PM EDT

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
Virg +5/Miami -5

Virginia is actually the defending ACC Coastal Division champion but shoots for its first conference victory of this season when it visits Miami to battle the Hurricanes Thursday night. The Cavaliers are 0-2 in ACC play, giving up way too much on defense, while Miami will be playing its first conference bout of the season.

The Hurricanes, who might be without their starting quarterback for the second straight game, are only favored by four points. Which way are we going here with our Week 5 pick?

Virginia-Miami Betting Odds

Week 5's college football betting lines opened Miami as a four-point home favorite over Virginia, with an over/under of around 62. Both those figures were holding steady in the early betting action.

Virginia Betting Preview

The Cavaliers are 2-2 on the season after losing at home to Wake Forest last Friday 37-17. UVA, favored by 3.5 points, gave up the first 10 points of the game and trailed 20-3 at the half. The Cavs got within 20-10 early in the third quarter and 27-17 a bit later but couldn’t get any closer in a thoroughly disappointing defeat.

Virginia eventually produced 506 yards of total offense last week, but a third of that came after falling down by 20 points. The Cavaliers also allowed 473 yards of Demon Deacons offense, including 203 on the ground.

UVA started 2-0 this season, with wins over FCS William and Mary and Illinois. But the Cavaliers then lost to North Carolina 59-39, giving up 699 yards of Tar Heels offense, then got shredded again last week.

Virginia was supposed to get back to a bowl this season after missing out last season, but if they don't show some improvement on defense, that's not gonna happen.

Miami Betting Preview

The Hurricanes, meanwhile, are also 2-2 on the season after brushing off FCS Central Connecticut last week 69-0. Miami, playing as a 47-point favorite, scored touchdowns on its first seven possessions, led 49-0 at the half, and coasted home from there for the win and the money.

The ‘Canes out-gained the Blue Devils 739-198 in what basically amounted to a scrimmage.

Miami QB Tyler Van Dyke, making his first college start in place of the injured D'Eriq King and back-up Jake Garcia combined to hit on 21/25 throws last week for 417 yards and five touchdowns.

As of early this week, King was still listed as questionable for Thursday night, but the 'Canes might be OK at that spot anyway.

The Hurricanes opened this season with that 44-13 loss to Alabama and whiffed against the spread as 20-point underdogs. Miami then needed a late field goal to beat Appalachian State 25-23 and came up short ATS as a seven-point favorite. The ‘Canes then lost at home to Michigan State 38-17, going down outright as seven-point chalk.

Miami was supposed to contend in the ACC Coastal Division this season, and while it hasn't shown much so far this season, the talent on hand could still make that happen. But this is a game the Hurricanes must win.

Virginia-Miami Recent History

The Hurricanes are 5-1 SU over the last six meetings with Virginia but only 2-4 ATS because they've been favored by too much too often. Six seasons ago, Miami beat the Cavaliers 27-21, but UVA covered at +6.5; four seasons ago, the 'Canes won 44-28 but the Cavs covered at +20; and last year, Miami beat Virginia 19-14 in the rain, but the Cavaliers covered at +13.

The Hurricanes out-gained Virginia last year 444-366 but just couldn’t pull away.

Also, that game played way under a total of 55.

College Football Betting Trends

  • Virginia is 18-26 SU, 21-23 ATS in ACC play under Coach Mendenhall.
  • Miami is 11-6 SU, 8-9 ATS in ACC play under Coach Diaz.

Totals Report

Unders are 3-1 in Virginia games this season. The game against North Carolina produced 98 points to play over a total of 67, but the Cavs' other three games have only averaged 51 points.

Unders are 3-1 in Miami games this season, which are averaging 57 points.

Unders are 6-1 over the last seven meetings in this series.

Virginia at Miami Prediction ATS 9/30/21

Miami is the better team here, even without its starting quarterback. And the uncertainty at that spot keeps the line on this game down. We’re giving the points here with the Hurricanes.    

Free Pick: 
Take Miami -5