Texas State Bobcats at Appalachian State Mountaineers Week 13 Pick
The Appalachian State Mountaineers (9-1) will host Texas State Bobcats (3-7) for a Sun Belt Conference match-up on Saturday, November 23rd, 2019. Kick-off is set for 2:30 PM ET and will be broadcasted on ESPN+. The Mountaineers and Bobcats last met in 2018 in San Marcos, Texas, when the Bobcats hosted App State. Texas State would fall prey to a 38-7 drubbing suffered at the hands of the Mountaineers. As a result, Texas State failed to cash in as an 18.5-point underdog. App State has won all three meetings with Texas State since it joined the SBC.
Texas State Bobcats at Appalachian State Mountaineers Key Injury Concerns
Bobcats Quarterback Gretch Jensen has been working his way through concussion protocol for the last four games. As a result, Jensen remains a question mark heading into Saturday’s game with Appalachian State. The Cats have failed to win or cover in his absence (0-4 SU / ATS).
Texas State Bobcats at Appalachian State Mountaineers Overview
Texas State Bobcats
Texas State steps into this game off a 63-20 loss endured against Troy when the Bobcats hosted the Trojans last Saturday. Closing as a seven-point underdog, the Bobcats were nowhere near close to covering and have not greened up in five consecutive matches.
Appalachian State Mountaineers
Since suffering their sole defeat at home against Georgia Southern on Halloween, the Mountaineers have responded beautifully with two consecutive win and covers against both South Carolina in Columbia and, most recently, a 56-27 thrashing of up-start Georgia State in Atlanta. In their most recent endeavor, the Mountaineers were easy money covering as a 15-point favorite.
Reasons To Back Texas State Bobcats
Teams like Texas State who have covered just once this season will be all the more positioned to take back an inflated number here against the giants of the Sun Belt, Appalachian State. The spot is quite disadvantageous for Appalachian State, who has failed to cover in the last two matches they were priced northward of a 20-point favorite, this season. As a result of the public also buying into App State due to their elevated stock and win streak against Texas State, we have seen this market move upward by two points from its open, which gives us ample opportunity to target a likely overlay.
Reasons To Avoid Appalachian State Mountaineers
At this point, Appalachian State has its eyes set more on a potential New Year’s Six Bowl bid than it retains focus against its present opponent. With the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game on the horizon in a likely re-match with UL Lafayette, the Mountaineers may be guilty of treating this game more like a scrimmage. Should App State get this game under control early, starters will be pulled in preparation for future events, and that leaves the backdoor wide-open for Texas State to step through by way of a few junk-time scores, if at nothing else. It is for this reason laying this cornucopia of points could be quite a perilous notion.
- Get more details: Texas State at Appalachian State NCAAF Match-up Stats
Texas State at Appalachian State Prediction 11/23/19
At the end of the day, Appalachian State will win this game and earn its tenth victory of the season. However, they will fail to cover while doing so. Texas State will generate enough scoring opportunities to snag the points it needs to come in under the number. I see this game being settled by a four-touchdown margin, which makes Texas State the value play here with the 30 points.