Texas-El Paso Miners at New Mexico State Aggies Week 13 Pick

November 23, 4:00 PM EST

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
New Mexico State -7

The football rivalry known as the Battle of I-10 will be renewed once again when the Texas-El Paso Miners (1-9) square off with the New Mexico State (1-9) Aggies in Las Cruces, New Mexico at Aggie Memorial Stadium. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday, November 23rd, 2019, at 4:00 PM ET. The contest will be available on ESPN+ streaming. New Mexico State won its second straight game against the Miners in this series in 2018 when it traveled to El Paso and handed UTEP a 27-20 loss to cover as a 4.5-point favorite.


Last week, we cashed in South Alabama taking UL Lafayette the distance as they came in easy as a +27.5 underdog when they fell 37-27 to the Ragin’ Cajuns. Our New Mexico +28 play failed to cash when they were defeated on the road at Boise State 42-9. To round off the action, we were in on Utah State at -6.5 as the chalk and had the Aggies been played at the number we took them at early in the week; the play would have failed to green up in a 26-21 USU win over Wyoming. Be that as it may, we were sitting pretty for most of the game and led by 12 until a late Wyoming score took the margin down to five. However, those that waited to take Aggies would have narrowly made it to the cashier’s window, as the Aggies closed as a 4.5-point favorite when a scourge of public money came in on the Cowboys on game-day.

Texas-El Paso Miners at New Mexico State Aggies Key Injury Concerns

As both teams step into this rivalry collision, neither UTEP or New Mexico State have reported any injury concerns with respect to key personnel.

Texas-El Paso Miners at New Mexico State Aggies Overview

Texas-El Paso Miners

UTEP comes into this contest riding a nine-game losing streak. The Miners' sole win came in its narrow season-opening win over FCS Houston Baptist when it edged out HBU 36-34 despite closing as a 17.5-point favorite. Most recently, UAB went to work on UTEP when it hosted the Miners last Saturday and laid waste to the Miners 37-10, causing Texas-El Paso to fail to cover as a 14.5-point underdog.

New Mexico State Aggies

The Aggies are feeling good here as they come in off their first win of the season against FCS Incarnate Word last week at home. Closing as a 7.5-point favorite, the Aggies marched onto a 41-28 victory and took their backers to the land of profits while doing so.

Reasons To Back Texas-El Paso

To the Miners, this is a winnable game. The market likely sees it as such as well. After all, UTEP was lit up last week by UAB, and in their follow-up, they are taking back a full touchdown less than they were a week ago. This is also concerning the fact NM State also got the job done in their Week 11 tilt. Sure, some will say that UTEP has yet to win on the road this year (0-5 SU overall), but let's look at who the Miners lost to in their away bouts. UAB (the defending Conference USA Champion), North Texas (the runner-up for the Conference USA crown in 2018), FIU (a pre-season favorite to win the Conference USA and earn 10 wins), Texas Tech (a Big 12 constituent), and Southern Mississippi (a team that remains undefeated on their own soil this season). The fact remains that UTEP has gone 2-3 ATS over these five games, which means the market is cognizant of their road woes and has given the Miners enhanced points to enchant action. UTEP has not covered in three straight to the road, so situationally, this looks like a spot where they can once again be taking more points they should in what is easily their most manageable road contest this season.

Reasons To Avoid New Mexico State

What resonates with me is the fact that New Mexico State is more or less priced where it was a week ago to a team that on paper is a step down from their rivals. After all, Incarnate Word remains an FCS constituent while UTEP is a bonafide FBS outfit. The fact that New Mexico State is priced in the same region again despite covering the number last week would suggest that the market is reluctant to believe the Aggies can do it again. I can understand why. After all, New Mexico State's defense is one of the worst in college football giving up over 40 points per game (129th in the FBS). I cannot recommend laying this kind of number with a team that features such a porous defense.

New Mexico State at Texas-El Paso Prediction 11/23/2019

As stated, it would be no shocker if UTEP won this one outright but be that as it may, seven points is likely too much for either side to be taking back in the Battle of I-10. After all, while both teams have defensive issues (UTEP also gives up a 120th-ranked 35.7 points per game), we are still dealing with two outfits in which points are also hard to come by. UTEP averages 18.4 points per match (121st in the FBS) while New Mexico State averages just .4 points per more game (18.8 ppg – 118th in America). With scoring scarce and neither team boding tremendous defensive acumen, taking back the points is the right move.

Free Pick: 
Take Texas-El Paso +7