Texas Christian Horned Frogs at Texas Longhorns Odds, Trends, Predictions

November 12, 7:30 PM EST

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
TCU +.57/Tex -7.5

TCU's Horned Frogs horned their way into the College Football Playoff's Top 4 this week, but they've got challenges ahead, beginning with a battle with the Longhorns in Austin Saturday night. No. 4 Texas Christian stands as one of the last four unbeaten teams in FBS ball. No. 18 Texas, meanwhile, is trying to play its way into the Big 12 championship game, which could well turn out to be a rematch of this contest.
Which way are we going here with our free TCU/Texas pick?

TCU-Texas Betting Odds

This week's college football betting lines opened Texas as a seven-point favorite for Saturday night, with an over/under of right around 65. Both figures were holding steady in the early betting action but the spread has inced up a half point to -7.5 crossing a key number.

TCU-Texas College Football Betting Preview

The Horned Frogs are 9-0 for the first time since 2010, the season they beat Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl, after topping Texas Tech at home last Saturday 34-24. TCU, favored by nine points, scored first on a long punt return for a touchdown and led 13-10 at the half. The Frogs then fell behind to the Red Raiders 17-13 midway through the third quarter and still trailed into the fourth. But TCU then scored three touchdowns in eight minutes to take control, on its way to victory and the somewhat unlikely cover.

The Frogs, who didn't score an offensive touchdown until the fourth quarter, eventually out-gained Texas Tech 429-352 and won the time of possession by a 35:25 split.

Two weeks ago, TCU outlasted West Virginia 41-31 and covered at -7 when it tacked on an insurance touchdown with 20 seconds left. Three weeks ago, the Frogs rallied from a 28-10 second-quarter deficit to beat Kansas State 38-28 and cover at -3.5. Before that, TCU defeated Oklahoma State in overtime, and before that, it beat Kansas on a touchdown with under two minutes left. So while the Frogs are undefeated on the season, they've been flirting with fire.

At 6-0 in conference play, TCU leads the Big 12 by two games over three teams, with three games to go. And at No. 4 in the CFP rankings, the Frogs have a chance to crash the big party, although they'll probably have to win out to do it.

Texas, meanwhile, bounced back from a loss at Oklahoma State two games ago to win at Kansas State last Saturday 34-27. The Longhorns drove their first three possessions of the game 75 yards to touchdowns and led 31-10 at the half. Texas later allowed the Wildcats to get within 31-24 and 34-27 with four minutes left but hung on for the victory and the cover at -3.
The Longhorns actually got out-gained by K-State 468-466 but out-rushed the Wildcats 269-139.
Two games ago, Texas blew a 34-24 third-quarter lead and lost to the Cowboys 41-34. But prior to that, the 'Horns won three straight over Iowa State, Oklahoma, and West Virginia.
At 4-2 in conference play, Texas is tied for second place with Baylor and Kansas State, with games against Kansas and the Bears yet to play.

Common Opponents

These two teams have played five common opponents so far this season; Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, and West Virginia. TCU played those five foes to 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS, and +138 yards per game, Texas to 3-2 both SU and ATS, and +91 YPG.

Horned Frogs-Longhorns Recent History

Texas leads the all-time series with TCU 64-27-1, but the Frogs are 7-3 in both SU and ATS over the last ten meetings. Last year, though, the 'Horns ran the ball for 273 yards and won in Fort Worth 32-27, covering at -4.

College Football Betting Trends

In games involving two teams ranked in the AP Top 25 this season, the higher-ranked outfits are 20-16 SU and only 15-20-1 ATS.
Top 10 teams are 22-15 SU and 17-20 ATS on the road this season.

Totals Report

  • The Overs are 6-3 in TCU games this season which are averaging 70 total points.
  • The Unders are 5-4 in Texas games, which are averaging 58 points.
  • The Unders are 7-3 over the last ten meetings between these teams.

TCU at Texas Week 11 Prediction ATS

TCU's playing a lot of close games this season and doing what it takes to win them. Hopefully, reading their own good press this week won't get to their heads, and coming in here as an underdog might help. Also, the Frogs own the better performance vs. common opponents this season. Texas, meanwhile, can be pretty good itself, but the losses to Texas Tech and Oklahoma State puzzle us a bit. We're not sure if TCU will win this one outright, but we'll take 'em plus the points.

Free Pick: 
Take TCU +7.5