Texas A&M Aggies vs. LSU Tigers Week 14 Pick

Date: 
November 30, 7:30 PM EST
Location:
TV:

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
LSU -17
Total: 
64

LSU seeks to remain perfect on the season, on track for the College Football Playoff, when it hosts Texas A&M for the regular-season finale for both teams Saturday night at Death Valley. The Tigers are favored by better than two touchdowns for this one. But keep in mind, they're also only 2-4 against the spread at home this season, favored by a bit too much too often. How are we playing this one with our free college football pick?

College Football Betting Odds

Week 14's college football betting odds opened LSU at -17 over A&M, with an over/under of right around 61. Early betting action then goosed that total to 64.

Aggies vs. Tigers Set-Up

Texas A&M just had a four-game winning streak snapped by a 19-13 loss at SEC East champion Georgia last week. The Aggies trailed the Bulldogs 16-3 in the third quarter, pulled to within 19-13 early in the fourth quarter, and drove the ball inside Georgia territory. But a sack led to a punt and A&M then let the Bulldogs run the last four and a half minutes off the clock.

However, the Aggies hung on for the cover as 12-point underdogs.

On the day Texas A&M actually out-gained Georgia 274-260 and only allowed one Bulldogs touchdown. But the Aggies also managed -1 yards rushing and a single touchdown of their own.

So A&M is 0-3 SU but 2-1 ATS this season against Clemson, Alabama, and Georgia, national championship contenders all.

At 7-4 overall, the Aggies are headed to a mid-level bowl, playing this game for the chance to knock off the undefeated Tigers. But more importantly, Texas A&M played against a win over/under of 7.5 for this season, so it needs this one to go over.

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LSU, meanwhile, remained perfect on the season with a 56-20 romp over Arkansas last week. The Tigers only led that game 7-6 midway through the second quarter, then used a 49-0 run spanning the halves to take total control. Unfortunately for its financial backers, LSU gave up two meaningless Razorbacks touchdowns in the fourth quarter to come up short of covering as a 41-point home favorite.

On the night, the Tigers out-gained Arkansas 612-304 and out-rushed the Hogs 260-114. They were just favored by one score too much.

In fact, over its last six games, all wins, four by two scores or more, LSU is only 2-4 ATS.

At 11-0 overall, the Tigers will play Georgia in the SEC championship game next week. But of course, LSU is also shooting for a spot in the CFP, and while it might be able to absorb one slip-up, why risk it?

Aggies vs. Tigers Recent History

Last year LSU and Texas A&M played one of the craziest college football games of all-time, that epic seven-overtime affair won by the Aggies 74-72 in College Station. But prior to that, the Tigers had beaten A&M each of the previous seven seasons, and they're 8-0 ATS over the last eight meetings.

Also, last year's game played over its total of 46 long before going to overtime.

College Football Betting Trends

  • Texas A&M is 2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS on the road this season.
  • LSU is 6-0 SU but only 2-4 ATS at home this season.
  • Through the first 13 weeks of this college football betting season, teams ranked in the AP Top 25 are 116-96 ATS against unranked opponents.
  • Also, teams ranked in the Top 5 are 32-20 ATS this season.

Totals Report

  • Unders are 6-5 in Aggies games this season, which are averaging 52 total points.
  • Overs are 8-3 in Tigers games this season, which are averaging a healthy 72 points.
  • Overs are 3-0 over the last three meetings between these teams.

Texas A&M at LSU Prediction 11/30/19

LSU's explosive offense gets most of the ink, and deservedly so, but that Tigers defense can give up a few points. Ole Miss put up 37 on them a couple of weeks ago. A&M could put up 27-30, and its already covered at +16 against Clemson and +12 against Georgia. They probably won't win the game, but we'll take the Aggies and the points.

Free Pick: 
Take the Aggies +17