Southern Methodist Mustangs at Navy Midshipmen Week 13 Pick

November 23, 3:30 PM EST

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
Navy -4

The Navy Midshipmen (7-2) will host the Southern Methodist Mustangs (9-1) for an American Athletic Conference showdown on Saturday, November 23rd, 2019. Kick-off is scheduled for 3:30 PM ET and will be broadcasted for audiences on CBS Sports Network. The last meeting between these two sides was nothing short of a thriller as the Mustangs edged out the Midshipmen by virtue of a two-point conversion in overtime last year when the two met in Abilene. The Pony Express would be the victors in a 31-30 final that saw Southern Methodist stage an upset outright as a 6.5-point underdog.

Southern Methodist Mustangs at Navy Midshipmen Key Injury Concerns

Neither Southern Methodist nor Navy have any key injuries to report as they journey into this pivotal AAC match-up.

Southern Methodist Mustangs at Navy Midshipmen Overview

Southern Methodist Mustangs

The Mustangs enter into this tilt off a bye preceded by a 59-51 win over upset-minded East Carolina when the Ponies hosted the Pirates on November 9th. As a result, the Ponies have failed to cover in three consecutive outings as they could not cash in as a 23-point favorite.

Navy Midshipmen

The Midshipmen step into this game off a thumping received at the hands of the Notre Dame Fighting Irish last Saturday. Coming into the bout as a ranked outfit, the Midshipmen were a public play when they were taking back double-digit points at the open of the market. The line quickly dipped down and closed with the Mids as a 7.5-point underdog at the close. Much to the chagrin of Navy backers, the Irish would stomp out Navy 52-20.

Reasons To Avoid Southern Methodist Mustangs

Motivation will be an edge that works in the favor of the Mids as SMU and Navy head into this contest. As mentioned, the Mustangs defeated the Midshipmen last year by a two-point conversion in overtime, but it doesn't simply end there. The game-winner was one that was marred in controversy as a review was required to determine whether or not the gizmo play executed by Southern Methodist was, in fact, legal. All this came after Navy fought back from nine points to equalize. There is little question that last year's events are on the mind of the upperclassmen, and they will be looking for vindication. This makes SMU a great team to fade who may be a bit lax off the bye.

Reasons To Back Navy Midshipmen

Last week, many got burned on Navy when they backed them with points, so it is very well likely the case here that much of the consensus will be reluctant to get on-board with Navy here, spotting points no less. Targeting a zig-zag is a great strategy to snag value. After all, Navy is already laying less wood than it would have been offering if it had won or even covered last week. Combining this with the public all over the dog in this match-up with SMU being 61% of the consensus’ selection in this spot, there is a significant chance that the favorite is undervalued and such a position is traditionally a bearer of good profits for those that dare lay the likely short-sold points. Lest we also forget that Navy is a sparkling a 5-0 SU at home, this season which means we are backing the team that plays at a higher level on its own turf with a clear-cut home-field advantage.

Southern Methodist at Navy Prediction 11/23/19

Make no mistake about it, this contest will likely be a back and forth bout, but the Midshipmen will get the better of this equation. Navy's nation-leading rushing attack that averages 349.7 yards on the ground per game will wear out the Ponies and will be too much for SMU to overcome in the end. Navy will win this game by a touchdown, which brings us to the cashier window laying the points here with the chalk.

Free Pick: 
Take Navy -4

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