South Florida Bulls at Illinois Fighting Illini Pick ATS - Game Odds

September 15, 3:30 PM EDT

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
South Florida -9.5

South Florida Bulls (2-0 SU 2-0 ATS 1-1 O/U) vs. Illinois Fighting Illini (2-0 SU 1-1 ATS 0-2 O/U)

This game is being held at a neutral site at Soldier Field in Chicago, Illinois.

On the season South Florida ranks 40th in the nation in total offense, and 93rd in total defense and Illinois ranks 69th in total offense and 87th in total defense.

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The Betting Line

South Florida opened as an 8-point favorite, and as of Tuesday morning they are a 9.5-point favorite, and the 59-point total has not changed.

Last Games: South Florida moved to 2-0 with a 49-38 win over Georgia Tech where they covered as a 3-point underdog, and the total went well Over. Illinois also moved to 2-0 in their last game beating Western Illinois 34-14 where they covered as an 8-point favorite, and the total went Under.

South Florida at Illinois Game Overview

South Florida has won both of their games by double digits, and they beat Georgia Tech from the ACC in their last game where they were the betting underdog. In the win over Tech, the Bulls racked up 602 yards (183 passing yards 419 rushing yards), scored 21 points in the 4th quarter, and while giving up 426 yards they forced three turnovers.

USF QB Blake Barnett was the big star of the win over Georgia Tech passing for 202 yards with two TD and an INT and also led the team with 91 rushing yards and two TD. The Bulls have three WR’s that have at least 112 receiving yards and Barnett has passed for 507 yards with five TD and only one INT and has also rushed for 122 yards with three TD.

Illinois has won both of their games to start the season, but they only rank 101st in the nation in pass defense and 47th in run defense. That has to be a concern facing USF, who scored 47 points on them last season in a loss and put up 49 in their previous game.

In the win over Western Illinois in their last game, the Fighting Illini only had 15 more total yards than WIU and gave up 295 passing yards, but did rush for 238 yards and forced three turnovers.

Starting QB A.J. Bush was injured in the Western Illinois game, and his status for this game facing South Florida is still yet to be determined. When he went out in the last match, M.J. Rivers II came in and passed for 105 yards with two TD and no picks. Mike Epstein and Reggie Corbin combined for 168 yards in the last game and had combined for 280 yards and four TD this season.

The loss of Bush could be a big one, as he is tied with Corbin as the team leader in rushing yards (142). The Fighting Illini will look to run the ball in this game, and they face a South Florida run defense that only ranks 124th in the nation, out of 128 teams, and has given up at least 192 rushing yards in each of their first two games.

Head to Head:

These teams met last season with South Florida beating Illinois 47-23.

Sagarin Rankings

South Florida: 74.75
Illinois: 63.46

Injury Report


DE] 09/09/2018 - Marquies Price is "?" Saturday vs. Illinois ( Undisclosed )
[WR] 09/09/2018 - Ryeshene Bronson is "?" Saturday vs. Illinois ( Undisclosed )
[RB] 09/09/2018 - Duron Bell Jr. is "?" Saturday vs. Illinois ( Head )
[QB] 07/20/2018 - Brett Kean is out indefinitely ( Academics )


DL] 09/01/2018 - Deon Pate is out indefinitely ( Suspension )
[TE] 09/01/2018 - Louis Dorsey is out indefinitely ( Suspension )
[WR] 09/03/2018 - Mike Dudek is out for season ( Knee )
[DB] 09/01/2018 - Bennett Williams is out indefinitely ( Suspension )
[WR] 09/01/2018 - Carmona Green is out indefinitely ( Suspension )
[DB] 09/01/2018 - Nate Hobbs is out indefinitely ( Suspension )
[QB] 09/07/2018 - Cam Thomas has left the team ( Personal )
[WR] 09/09/2018 - Edwin Carter left last game, is "?" Saturday vs. South Florida ( Head )
(!)[QB] 09/09/2018 - AJ Bush injured last game, is "?" Saturday vs. South Florida ( Leg )
[WR] 09/09/2018 - Ricky Smalling is "?" Saturday vs. South Florida ( Foot )

South Florida at Illinois NCAAF Key Betting Trends/Angles

  • USF is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games against a team with a winning record
  • USF is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against teams from the Big 10
  • USF has an Over record of 9-4-1 in their last 14 non-conference games
  • ILL is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games
  • ILL is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games
  • ILL has an Under record of 6-2 in their last 8 games

Head to Head Trends


Next Game South Florida vs. East Carolina
Illinois vs. Penn State
Get more details: South Florida at Illinois NCAAF Match-Up

USF at Illinois Prediction 9/15/18

You have to give USF credit for their win over a good Georgia Tech team, but they got some breaks along the way. The Yellow Jackets top RB KirVante Benson went down early in the game and didn't return and dual-threat starting QB TaQuon Marshall lasted just two plays in the second half before being sidelined with a toe injury. This was anyone's game until the 4th when South Florida out-scored Georgia Tech 21-7 to pull away. This week’s opponent is dealing with some injuries of their own, with starting QB AJ Bush dealing with a quad injury that took him out of last week's game, but apparently, the quad has been coming around, and he's expected to be back in uniform this week. More good news is that last season's leading WR Ricky Smalling should be back in the line up after being held out last week and I'm expecting the Illinois suspended players to be back. This is just too many points to lay away from home (Soldier Field) against a team with experience on both sides of the ball and a rising star behind center.

Free Pick: 
Take the Illinois Fighting Illini +10

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