South Florida Bulls at Cincinnati Bearcats Pick - Odds and Against the Spread Predictions

November 7, 7:00 PM EST

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
Cincinnati -12

One of the featured matchups in the AAC this Saturday pits the South Florida Bulls on the road against the Cincinnati Bearcats. Game time from Nippert Stadium for this East Division tilt is 7 p.m. on ESPNU.

South Florida at Cincinnati Game Overview

South Florida's perfect 7-0 straight-up start and a brief stint in the national rankings have quickly eroded into a two-game slide with a road loss to Houston as a 10-point underdog followed by last Saturday's stunning 41-15 loss at home to Tulane as a six-point favorite. The Bulls have gone 2-7 against the spread in those nine contests with the total staying UNDER or ending as a PUSH in five of their last seven games.

Giving up 57 points and 684 yards of total offense to Houston two weeks ago was bad enough for a Bulls’ defense that was already pretty far down the list in Division IA in points allowed (30.9). Tulane’s 41 points last scored last Saturday has raised some serious flags on this side of the ball. Another big concern is South Florida’s play on offense against Tulane. Blake Barnett threw for 322 yards, but he could not get his team into the end zone through the air. The Bulls only added another 102 yards running the ball.

The Bearcats are just one game off the pace in the AAC's East Division standings at 4-1 SU in conference play, but a previous loss to Temple as them in third place. Last Saturday's 42-0 shutout against Navy as 12.5-point home favorites improved their overall record to 8-1 SU and 6-3 ATS. The total stayed UNDER 48 points in that game, and it has stayed UNDER in four of Cincinnati's last five games.

The defense has always been one of the Bearcats' strong suits this season with a 14.0 points-allowed average that is ranked sixth in the nation. Pitching a shutout last week while holding the country's third-ranked rushing offense to just 47 yards could present a formidable challenge for this week's opponent. Cincinnati's offense is average 235.6 rushing yards per game, and it is scoring an average of 35 points per game.

South Florida at Cincinnati Betting Trends

  • The Bulls are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games as opposed to its SU 10-2 record over their last 12 games played on the road. The total has gone OVER in two of their first three road games this season.
  • The Bearcats have been able to cover in six of their last nine games overall, but their record ATS in their previous 19 home games is 5-14. The total has gone OVER in four of their last five games at home.
  • Head-to-head in this AAC tilt, the Bearcats are 5-2 both SU and ATS in their last seven home games against the Bulls, and the total has stayed UNDER in four of the previous six meetings in Cincinnati.

South Florida at Cincinnati Prediction 11/10/2018

South Florida has been exposed as just an above average team in its last two outings to discount that impressive seven-game winning streak to start the year. It will have a hard time scoring enough points against the Bearcats to keep pace with the points its defense gives up.

I am sticking with Cincinnati covering the 12 points at home in this Saturday night’s matchup against the Bulls.

Free Pick: 
Take Cincinnati - 12

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