South Florida Bulls at Central Florida Golden Knights Week 14 Pick

November 29, 8:00 PM EST

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
Central Florida -24

The Central Florida Golden Knights (8-3) will host the South Florida Bulls (4-7) for the renewal of an American Athletic Conference rivalry. The War on I-4, as it is known between these two bitter rivals, is set for a kick-off off 8:00 PM ET. The contest will be broadcasted for national audiences on ESPN. The Golden Knights have won the last two meetings between these two sides. Last year, the Golden Knights torched the Bulls 38-10 to cover easy as a 16.5-point favorite and subsequently end a three-game USF cover streak

South Florida Bulls at Central Florida Golden Knights Key Injury Concerns

South Florida will be without stand-out running back Jordan Cronkite, who has been absent due to a shoulder injury. Cronkite has already compiled 683 yards on the ground this season for USF and eclipsed the 1,000-yard mark in 2018. His absence will undoubtedly undermine the Bulls 64th-ranked rushing attack, which generates 164 yards per game. This will cause USF to rely on their passing attack, which is pedestrian at best sitting 113th in the country averaging 174.5 yards through the air per contest.

South Florida Bulls at Central Florida Golden Knights Overview

South Florida Bulls

The Bulls have now lost their last three matches and as a result, stand winless in November. Most recently, USF hosted the Memphis Tigers and was lit up by the front-runners for the AAC title. The Bulls closed as a 14.5-point underdog and were nowhere near close to covering in a 49-10 defeat.

Central Florida Golden Knights

The Golden Knights step into this rivalry match-up off a 34-31 win over Tulane on Saturday. While the victory is a feather in UCF’s golden cap, the Knights were unable to come in as a winner closing as a seven-point favorite at kick-off.

Reasons To Back South Florida Bulls

At first, I thought UCF would be the right play given the fact that the Bulls are without an impact player and with respect to historical anecdotes that they have been especially profitable in this series, as of late. However, I cannot justify laying 24 points in a game that has an Over/Under set at 63.5. The forecast for this affair is one of a shootout, and in such circumstances, the points are the academic move. This is especially the case given the acrimony that brews in this Sunshine State feud.

Reasons To Avoid Central Florida Golden Knights

The Golden Knights are 8-3 SU on the year, but they are just 4-7 ATS. Why is this? Because the Golden Knights have been a cash cow for the better half of the last two years when they were taking the mid-majors by storm. UCF has since cooled off against the spread because they are now in a position to be overvalued extensively. This outfit has taken a step back compared to what we saw out of the team that had not lost a game in the regular season in two campaigns. Yet, backing UCF will cause takers to support them at a price that would imply that they are still of that caliber.

USF vs UCF Prediction 11/29/19

South Florida will not be going to a bowl game this year with seven losses, so the War on I-4 will have to suffice for the Bulls. I expect the Bulls to offer up their best performance of the year and make this a ball game. UCF won't be dropping this one at home in Orlando with a perfect record on their own pitch this season, but USF will make them work for it. Ten points at most will be the margin that separates the two teams in this affair.

Free Pick: 
Take South Florida +24