San Jose State Spartans vs. Boise State Broncos Pick

November 28, 4:00 PM EST

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
SJ State +12/BSU -12
Spartans +340/Broncos -420

Perennial conference championship contender Boise State and upstart San Jose State meet for a big game in the Mountain West Saturday afternoon on the Blue in Boise. The Broncos are always expected to contend in the MWC, the Spartans, not so much. But both teams come into this one undefeated in conference play. How are we playing this game with our free college football pick?

College Football Betting Odds

College football betting odds opened Boise State at -11.5 over San Jose State, with an over/under of 58.5. Early betting action then dipped that spread to -11.

San Jose State vs. Boise State Betting Preview

The Spartans are off to their best start to a season since 1955, after beating UNLV two weeks ago 34-17. They then had last week's scheduled rivalry bout with Fresno State canceled.

San Jose State spotted the Rebels the first three points of the game two weeks ago, then scored the next 17 to take control. The Spartans led 24-10 at the half, allowed UNLV to get within 24-17 late in the third quarter but tacked on the last 10 points of the game for the win and a push of the spread as 17-point favorites.

San Jose State had a chance to cover late but sat on the ball the last two plays inside the Rebels' 10-yard line.

The Spartans out-gained UNLV 457-294 and out-rushed the Rebels 176-70. So San Jose State has now out-gained three of its four opponents this season.

The Spartans opened this season with a 17-6 “upset” of Air Force, winning outright as 7.5-point dogs. San Jose State then beat New Mexico 38-21, covering as a 13.5-point favorite, then upset San Diego State 28-17, winning outright as a 10-point dog.

Boise State, meanwhile, owns consecutive victories after holding off Hawaii last week 40-32. The Broncos spotted the Rainbows the first three points of the game, then scored the next 19 to lead 19-3 at the half. Boise State pushed that advantage to 33-9 in the third quarter and held on from there for the win.

However, in giving up the last two touchdowns of the game, Boise State pissed away the cover as a 12-point favorite.

The Broncos out-gained Hawaii 408-394, and a big chunk of the yardage the BSU defense gave up came in prevent mode.

Boise State has actually only out-gained two of its five opponents this season and out-rushed only one of its five foes.

The Broncos opened this season with wins over Utah State and Air Force, covering as favorites of 17 and 13 points. Boise State then got its butt kicked by BYU 51-17 but bounced back to beat Colorado State 52-21, covering at -14.

At 4-0 in conference play, the Broncos and Spartans are tied for second place in the Mountain West, a half-game back of 5-0 Nevada. And second place makes the MWC championship game this season.

Spartans-Broncos Recent History

Boise State is 14-0 all-time against San Jose State, 3-0 since the teams became conference rivals back in 2013. But the Spartans are 2-0 ATS over the last two meetings. Last year San Jose State led 14-0 early and 34-31 into the fourth quarter, lost 52-42 but covered easily at +16.

Also, that game played over a total of 61 before the third quarter was over.

College Football Betting Trends

San Jose State is 14-6 ATS its last 20 games as an underdog and 6-0 ATS its last six games as a double-digit dog.

Totals Report

  • Unders are 3-1 in Spartans games this season, which are averaging 45 total points against an average over/under of 58.
  • Overs are 5-0 in Broncos games this season, which are averaging 69 points against an average O/U of 56.

San Jose State vs. Boise State Prediction 11/28/20

Coach Brennan seems to be building something good at San Jose State, which is on track for its first winning season since 2012. The Spartans played 5-7 last year, with three losses by three points or less. Now, they're winning games. And most importantly, they're doing it with defense, holding foes to 349 yards and 15 points per game. Boise State is still the better team here and should win this game, but last year's contest was close, and this one should be, too. We like San Jose State here, plus the points.
Free Pick: 
Take San Jose State +12