Ole Miss Rebels at Mississippi State Bulldogs Odds & Free Pick

November 25, 7:30 PM EST

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
Ole Miss +1/Miss St -1

Ole Miss Rebels (9-2 SU, 6-4-1 ATS) at Mississippi State Bulldogs (7-4, 7-4), 11/22/21

When: 7:30 pm ET Thursday, Nov. 25

Where: Davis Wade Stadium


Point Spread: Ole Miss +1/Miss St -1

Over/under: 61

The Magnolia State gives us what should be a fun game to watch and bet when Ole Miss and Mississippi State meet for their annual Egg Bowl battle on Thanksgiving night in Starkville. Neither of these teams is still alive in the SEC West race, so that this game will be played for pride and a good bowl invitation.

These two teams look pretty even on paper, and the spread on this game says the same. Who do we like here for our free college football betting pick?

Ole Miss-Mississippi State Betting Odds

This week's college football betting lines opened the Bulldogs as one-point favorites over the Rebs, with an over/under of right around 61. Both those figures were holding steady in the early betting action.

Ole Miss-Mississippi State College Football Betting Preview

The Rebels ride a three-game winning streak into Thursday night following a 31-17 victory over Vanderbilt last Saturday. Ole Miss drove the opening possession of the game 65 yards to a touchdown, led 10-0 five minutes in, and 24-9 at the half. The Rebs then scored the first seven points of the second half and cruised from there for the win. However, they came up way short of covering the spread as 35-point favorites.

Ole Miss produced 470 yards of total offense Saturday but gave up 454 yards of Commodores offense, including 213 on the ground, and lost time of possession by a 39:21 split.

The Rebels have now out-gained five of their last six opponents. They're also 6-1 SU, 4-2 ATS over their last seven games.

At 9-2 overall, Ole Miss has clinched its first winning record since 2015, and a victory Thursday night might earn it a spot in a New Year's Day bowl.

The Bulldogs, meanwhile, are 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS their last five times out after beating FCS Tennessee State last Saturday 55-10. Mississippi State scored touchdowns on five of its first six possessions of the game and led 35-0 at the half. The Bulldogs then scored the first 14 points out of the locker room and later tacked on a field goal with 27 seconds left to cover the spread as 44-point favorites.

That's how you keep boosters happy.

MSU out-gained the Tigers 600-205. So the Bulldogs have now out-gained each of their last five opponents, three by 200 yards and more.

And 7-4 overall, Mississippi State has clinched its first winning season since 2018 and its 12th straight bowl bid, although it didn't deserve one last year.

Egg Bowl History

Ole Miss leads the all-time rivalry with Mississippi State 63-46-6, but the Bulldogs are 7-5 over the last 12 meetings. Last year, though, with both teams struggling a bit, the Rebels beat MSU in Oxford 31-24.

The Bulldogs covered that day as 9.5-point underdogs while the game played under a total of 70.

College Football Betting Trends

So far this season, teams ranked in the Coaches Top 25 are 166-39 SU, 107-95 ATS vs. unranked opponents.

Totals Report

Under are 8-3 in Rebels games this season, even though those games are averaging 62 total points.

Overs are 6-5 in Bulldogs games this season, which are averaging 56 points.

The Under is 7-1 over the last eight Egg Bowls, in part because of some large totals.

Ole Miss vs. Mississippi St. Prediction ATS 11/25/21

Ole Miss is averaging 517 yards per game on offense this season, but that Rebels defense concerns us after giving up 454 yards to a poor Vanderbilt outfit last week. Meanwhile, Coach Leach might be offense-oriented, but his Mississippi State defense is pretty good. Also, these two teams played six common opponents this season; Ole Miss played Alabama, Arkansas, LSU, Auburn, Texas A&M, and Vandy to +7 yards per game while the Bulldogs played those six foes to +84 YPG. Also, of MSU's four losses this season, three have come by a total of eight points. A few plays here and there, and Mississippi State might be 9-2, too. We're betting the Bulldogs here.
Free Pick: 
Take Misssissippi State