Oklahoma State vs. Miami Pick - Cheez-it Bowl Odds & Picks

Date: 
December 29, 5:30 PM EST
Location:
TV:

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
OKST -1.5/MIA +1.5
Total: 
62

The first major bowl game between ranked opponents will take place on Tuesday, December 29th in the Cheez-It Bowl at Camping World Stadium between the no. 21 Oklahoma State Cowboys and the no. 18 Miami Hurricanes. The Hurricanes will have the luxury of remaining in their home state when they make the short trip north to Orlando. Despite the in-state trip and higher ranking in the polls, Oklahoma State is the team getting the early love from oddsmakers. The Cowboys are currently listed as two-point favorites over the Hurricanes, and the betting public has been practically dead-locked with an even 50/50 split of early bets on both teams.

Honestly, I can see why arguments can be made for both teams, which would have the public dead-locked. The Cowboys may not have reached the lofty preseason expectations that some were expecting, but they still had a rock-solid 7-3 SU record that finished 3rd in the Big 12. The Cowboys handed Iowa State their only conference loss during the regular season behind the conference's 2nd most efficient running attack that averaged nearly 200 yards per game. Meanwhile, Miami was among the breakout stories in the ACC that was overshadowed by Notre Dame's success. The Hurricanes got help from Houston transfer QB D'Eriq King on the offensive side of the ball. King threw for 22 touchdowns with just five picks to lead the Hurricanes to a solid 8-2 SU campaign and an opportunity at their first bowl victory since 2016.

Oklahoma State vs. Miami Betting Analysis

When I look at this Cheez-It Bowl pairing from a betting standpoint, I believe both teams are pretty even except for one glaring difference. The ultimate difference revolves around Oklahoma State's running attack and Miami's horrible run defense. If you missed the last game of the regular season, North Carolina embarrassed the Hurricanes in a 62-26 blowout. Tar Heels' running backs Michael Carter and Javonte Williams set an NCAA record by combining for 544 yards on the ground in a single game. While I never like to look at a team's last game for handicapping reasons, it is hard to ignore that complete meltdown, especially when you consider Miami's struggles throughout the entire year at stopping the run. To add further complications, Miami will be without defensive ends Jaelan Phillips and Quincy Roche, who will "opt-out" of their final game in preparation for the NFL Draft.

On the other side of that argument, the Cowboys will also be without leading rusher Chuba Hubbard who is also electing to opt-out of the bowl game. I would also add that Miami's D'Eriq King gives the Hurricanes' offense plenty of chances to keep this game competitive. However, the Cowboys have several running backs that have been effective this season, and I just don't see them having much trouble moving the football. Additionally, Oklahoma State expects to have WR Tylan Wallace back in the line-up for this game, which will be a huge boost in the passing attack if it's needed. Purely from a match-up standpoint, I expect Oklahoma State to have their way running the football, and I believe they will wear down the Hurricanes defense. The Hurricanes will make some plays on the offensive side of the ball, but I don't think it will be enough to get the victory.

Oklahoma State vs. Miami Betting Trends

  • Oklahoma State is 1-5 ATS in the last six games (4-6 ATS on the season)
  • Oklahoma State has hit the "under" in 4 of the last five games.
  • Oklahoma State is 10-2 SU as betting favorites.
  • Miami is 6-4 ATS in 2020
  • Miami is 5-1 SU in the last six games.
  • Miami has hit the "under" in all 6 of their previous games as a betting underdog.
  • Miami is 8-3 ATS against Big 12 opponents in the last 11 games.

Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. Miami Hurricanes Prediction 12/29/20

Free Pick: 
Take Oklahoma State -1.5
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