Oklahoma Sooners vs LSU Tigers - Peach Bowl Pick 12-28-19

Date: 
December 28, 4:00 PM EST
Location:
TV:

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
LSU -14
Total: 
76

The top two offenses in all of FBS ball face-off when LSU and Oklahoma play the Peach Bowl, the first of the two College Football Playoff semi-finals, Saturday afternoon in Atlanta. The Tigers, champions of the SEC, are favored by two touchdowns over the Sooners, champions of the Big 12, for what should be a shootout. How are we playing this game with our free college football pick?

College Football Betting Odds

College football Peach Bowl betting odds opened LSU at -13 over Oklahoma, with an over/under of 76. Early betting action then bumped the Tigers to -14.

Peach Bowl Betting Preview

Oklahoma played over its regular-season wins over/under for this season, which was 10.5, by going 11-1, then won the Big 12 championship game. So the Sooners are back in the College Football Playoff for the third straight year and the fourth time over the last five seasons.

OU started 7-0 this season, as transfer quarterback Jalen Hurts melded wonderfully into Coach Riley's offensive scheme. And the Sooner defense was playing improved ball, limiting three of its first five Power 5 opponents to 16 points or less. Oklahoma then suffered an upset at what turned out to be a pretty good Kansas State team, but won its last four games, beating Iowa State, Baylor (in wild, come-from-behind fashion) and rival Oklahoma State along the way, to finish at 8-1 in conference play. The Sooners then outlasted Baylor in a rematch in the Big 12 championship game 30-23 in overtime.

On the whole, Oklahoma played what Sagarin (at USAToday.com) ranks as the 18th-toughest schedule in FBS this season.

The Sooners rank No. 2 in the country in total offense this season, averaging 554 yards per game, which includes 251 YPG on the ground. And the OU defense ranks No. 25, holding opponents to 331 YPG, 123 YPG better than last season.

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LSU, meanwhile, also topped its win total for this regular season, which was nine, by going 12-0 and winning the SEC championship for the first time since 2011. So the Tigers are in the CFP for the first time in its six seasons of existence.

Louisiana State played Sagarin's 15th-toughest schedule this season. The Tigers beat Texas and Utah State in non-conference play, then dispatched of all comers in SEC play, including Florida, Mississippi State, Auburn, Alabama, and Texas A&M, hitting the 50-point mark each of their last three games. LSU then destroyed Georgia 37-10 in the SEC championship game.

The Tigers are powered by the No. 1 offense in the nation, averaging 555 YPG, most of it coming from Heisman-winning QB Joe Burrow's arm. And the LSU defense, occasionally maligned, ranks No. 32, holding foes to 342 YPG.

These programs last met back in the 2004 Sugar Bowl, a 21-14 Louisiana State victory.

On the personnel front, Oklahoma suspended three players for this game. Most importantly, DL Ronnie Perkins and RB Rhamondre Stevenson, while LSU RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire (1,689 yards from scrimmage this season, 17 touchdowns) is listed as questionable after tweaking a hamstring in practice last week.

College Football Betting Trends

  • Oklahoma is 3-1 ATS as an underdog under Coach Riley.
  • Oklahoma is 0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS over three appearances in the CFP.
  • Oklahoma is 5-1 SU but just 1-5 ATS this season against teams that made bowls this year.
  • LSU is 8-0 SU, 6-2 ATS against teams that made bowls this season.
  • LSU is 4-2 ATS this season when favored by 20 points or less.
  • The SEC is 8-7 SU but 7-8 ATS versus the Big 12 over the past five bowl seasons.

Totals Report

  • Unders are 7-5 in Sooners games this season, which are averaging 68 total points.
  • Overs are 8-5 in Tigers games this season, which are averaging 69 points.

Oklahoma at LSU Prediction 12/28/19

These teams played one common opponent this season, Texas. Back in September, LSU beat the Longhorns in Austin 45-38, while a month later, Oklahoma topped Texas 34-27 in the Red River Shootout. And both those games played out somewhat similarly, with the Tigers and Sooners taking early leads and hanging on from there. And while that's a small sample size, it seems to indicate these two teams are closer than the spread on this game would have us believe. Oklahoma might not win this one outright, but we like the Sooners and the points.

Free Pick: 
Take the Sooners +14