Oklahoma Sooners at Oklahoma State Cowboys Week 14 Pick

Date: 
November 30, 7:30 PM EST
Location:
TV:

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
Oklahoma -12
Total: 
69.5

Oklahoma has won their last three games after their only loss on the season, and this season finale is enormous for them. They are in the 9th spot in the BCS rankings but will move up with the new rankings come out on Tuesday night considering 6th ranked Oregon and 8th ranked Penn State both lost. They need to win this game and the Big 12 title game, where they will face Baylor, and will still likely need help in order to move into the top four and return to the College Football Playoffs. The Sooners are double-digit favorites in this rivalry game with Oklahoma State, and they have not lost to the Cowboys since the 2014 season. Heisman candidate Jalen Hurts leads the Sooners, and on the season he has passed for 3,184 yards with 30 TD and 6 INT and has rushed for 1,156 yards with 17 TD.

Oklahoma State has won four in a row, and they are 8-3 and 5-3 in Big 12 play. They will not play in the conference title game, but they can really get a boost in the rankings and greatly improve the bowl they play in if they can pull off the upset and beat OU. The Cowboys are led by RB Chubba Hubbard, who leads the nation in rushing yards, and the rushing offense ranks 15th in the nation averaging 246.1 rushing yards per game. One of the big matchups in this game is Hubbard, and the Cowboys run game against Oklahoma, and their 45th ranked run defense.

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How the Public is Betting the Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma State Game

The public has been backing Oklahoma in this game, as they opened as a 10.5-point favorite, and as of Tuesday are a 12-point favorite. The total of 69.5 has not changed since opening.

Injury Concerns

Oklahoma

OU has several players that are out for the season but come into this game relatively healthy. S Robert Barnes and K Calum Sutherland are both out indefinitely.

Oklahoma State

OSU is also relatively healthy for this big game, but they have one significant injury in QB Spender Sanders, who is out after having thumb surgery and may be back for the Cowboys’ bowl game.

When Oklahoma Has the Ball

Oklahoma has a very balanced offense ranking 10th in the nation in rushing yards per game and 11th in passing yards per game. Jalen Hurts leads the team in passing yards and rushing yards, and can he be the 3rd straight Sooners’ QB to win the Heisman? In the Sooners' last game, they beat TCU 28-24, and while Hurts only passed for 145 yards with two TD and one INT, he rushed for 173 yards with two TD and averaged 6.2 yards per carry. RB Kennedy Brooks has rushed for 757 yards on the season and is averaging a more than solid 7.1 yards per carry and rushed for 149 yards in the win over TCU. Star WR CeeDee Lamb (999 yards 14 TD) only had two catches for 16 yards in the TCU game while in his previous two games had 167 and 135 receiving yards, respectively.

One key for the Sooners on offense is holding onto the rock. They had three turnovers in the TCU win, two by Hurts with an INT and a fumble, and only forced one. They only beat the Horned Frogs by four points even though they outgained them 511 yards to 204 yards. Hurts may be in for a big game in the air facing OSU, as they only rank 116th in the nation in pass defense and allowed 307 passing yards in their last game.

When Oklahoma State Has the Ball

The Cowboys will look to run the ball early and often behind Hubbard, who surpassed 100 rushing yards in his 9th straight game in OSU's last game, which was a 20-13 win over West Virginia. He is averaging 6.4 yards per carry on the season, and in the WVU game, he rushed for his 2nd lowest total of the season (106 yards) and had his 2nd lowest per carry average (4.1). Senior QB Dru Brown got his first career start in the WVU game going 22/29 for 196 yards with two TD and no picks. The Cowboys will need to play better in this game then they did against West Virginia, and while they were on the road, the Mountaineers are only 4-7, and they outgained OSU (333 yards to 285 yards).

Betting Trends

Oklahoma came nowhere near covering the spread as a 19-point favorite in their last game in the four-point win over TCU. The Sooners have failed to cover the spread in six of their previous seven games, including their final four. The OSU vs. WVU game was a pick, as the Cowboys were a 7-point favorite, and they had covered in their previous three games. The Sooners have failed to cover in their last four road games while the Cowboys have covered the spread in seven of their past eight home games. However, OU is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games facing Oklahoma State and have covered in six of their last seven games facing them on the road. Over the previous seven games between these teams, the Over record is 5-1-1, and in the past two games, OU has beaten OSU 48-47 and 62-52.

Weather Report

The forecast for Saturday will be on the cooler side with a 7:30 PM kickoff, and the high for the day is forecast at 62 degrees with a low of 39.2. There is a 4% chance of rain and a 12 mph wind from the west.

Oklahoma at Oklahoma State Prediction 11/30/19

Oklahoma has failed to cover in their last four games, which have all been close. However, I don't see this game being close at all. Hurts will have a big game lighting up the suspect Oklahoma State secondary, and while Hubbard will get his yards, the OU run defense will keep him from having a huge game. The Sooners will win and cover ending their regular season with a W, as they head to the Big 12 Championship Game.

Free Pick: 
Take the Sooners -12