Oklahoma Sooners at Baylor Bears Week 12 Pick

Date: 
November 16, 7:30 PM EST
Location:
TV:

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
Oklahoma -10
Total: 
67.5

This game is not for all the marbles in the Big 12, but it is close. Baylor leads the conference at 6-0 with Oklahoma at 5-1, and each has some work to do after this game. The Bears face a ranked Texas, who is 4-2 in conference play, in their next game, and the Sooners face a ranked Oklahoma State in their season finale. There is a good chance these teams will meet in a few weeks in the Big 12 title game.

While Oklahoma got over their shocking loss to Kansas State beating Iowa State 42-41 in their last game, they have given up 89 points in their previous two games. Jalen Hurts an offense that is averaging 48.4 ppg, and they may need to match that total or surpass it if their defense continues to struggle.

Baylor is undefeated but ranked lower than Oklahoma. However, if they can beat the Sooners, they can show they are for real and have a legit shot for a playoff game. No surprise, they are double-digit underdogs, as they have not faced a top 25 team, and in their last match, they needed three overtimes to beat a 4-5 TCU team 29-23. They have a balanced offense and a defense that is giving up an average of only 19 ppg. While the Bears have not faced a ranked team this season, they did have a 31-12 win over Kansas State who handed Oklahoma their only loss of the season.

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How the Public is Betting the Oklahoma vs. Baylor Game

The public has been backing Baylor in this Big 12 showdown as they opened as a 12-point underdog, and as of Wednesday are a 10-point underdog. The total of 67.5 has remained the same since opening.

Injury Concerns

Oklahoma

For OU TE Grant Calcaterra is out for this game, S Robert Barnes is listed as questionable, and K Calum Sutherland is out indefinitely.

Baylor

Baylor does not have many injury concerns for this game, but OL Connor Galvin and RB Craig Williams are both out indefinitely.

When Oklahoma Has the Ball

Hurts leads a dynamic Oklahoma offense that ranks 5th in the nation in passing yards per game and 13th in rushing yards per game. He has passed for 2,742 yards with a TD to INT ratio of 24:4 and also leads the Sooners with 869 rushing yards. Hurts has the top QBR in the nation, and while he has seven TD and only one INT in his last three games, he has been sacked five times in his previous two games. Kennedy Brooks leads all RB for the Sooners, and he came up big in the win over Iowa State with 132 yards after rushing for only 72 yards in his previous two games. CeeDee Lamb is a star WR and leads the Sooners with 983 yards and 14 TD. Baylor has to try to contain him, but he had 167 receiving yards in the win over Iowa State and has at least 135 receiving yards in three of his last four games. Hurts will be facing a balanced Baylor defense that ranks 45th in the nation defending the pass and 31st in defending the run.

When Baylor Has the Ball

Like the Sooners, the Baylor offense is a balanced one just not as dynamic. Charlie Brewer (2,338 yards 16 TD 4 INT) and after a three INT game against Texas Tech, he has five TD and one INT in the three games since. John Lovett (532 yards 4 TD) and JaMycal Hasty (461 yards 4 TD) give the Bears a solid 1-2 punch out of the backfield. However, in the 3OT win over TCU they only combined for 59 yards, Brewer led the team with 41 rushing yards, and Hasty only averaged 2.4 yards per carry. The WR duo of Denzel Mims and Tyquan Thornton have combined for 1,287 yards and 11 TD this season, and each is averaging over 15 yards per catch. The OU defense has given up 408 rushing yards in their last two games, so the Bears may look to establish the run, not only to move the chains but to keep Hurts and the Sooners’ offense on the sidelines.

Betting Trends

Oklahoma failed to cover the spread in their last game as a 14-point favorite while Baylor covered as a 1-point road favorite. The Sooners have just one cover in their previous five games. While OU is only 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 road games, Baylor is only 4-10 ATS in their past14 home games. Over the previous 23 games between these Big 12 rivals, the road team is 16-7 ATS. Not many low scoring games between these teams in the last few seasons, as the total has gone Over in four of the previous five meetings.

Weather Report

The forecast for Saturday will be on the cooler side with a 7:30 PM kickoff, and the high for the day is forecast at 59 degrees with a low of 37 degrees. It will be partly cloudy with a 10% chance of rain and an 8 MPH wind out of the south/southwest.

Oklahoma at Baylor Prediction 11/16/19

Oklahoma has not looked good on defense in their last two games, and they may struggle, once again, on defense in this game. However, Baylor has not faced an offense like OU yet, and the Sooners will light up the scoreboard. While the Bears will get their yards and points, the Sooners will get many more and win and cover handing the Bears their first loss of the season.

Free Pick: 
Take the Sooners -10