North Carolina Tar Heels at Pittsburgh Panthers Week 11 Odds, Free Pick

Date: 
November 11, 7:30 PM EST
Location:
TV:

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
NC +6.5/Pitt-6.5
Total: 
73

The ACC gives us what should be a fun game to watch and bet Thursday night when Coastal Division-leading Pitt entertains high-scoring but disappointing North Carolina at Heinz Field. The Panthers are angling for their second berth in the ACC championship game over the last four seasons, while the Tar Heels, who were supposed to win the Coastal Division this season, are just about dead. But UNC does tend to play some crazy games. How are we playing this game with our free college football betting pick?

North Carolina-Pitt Betting Odds

This week's college football betting lines opened the Panthers as six-point favorites over the Tar Heels, with an over/under of right around 75. Early betting action then bumped Pitt to -6.5 and dropped that total to 73.

North Carolina Betting Preview

The Tar Heels, preseason Top 15 picks, are 5-4 this season after outscoring previously unbeaten Wake Forest last week 58-55. In a game with little defense, at least until the end, North Carolina trailed Wake 31-24 at the half and 45-27 midway through the third quarter. But the Heels hit the scoreboard on their next five possessions, creating a 31-3 run, and held on for not just the victory but also the cover as 2.5-point favorites. North Carolina actually got out-gained by the Deacons 615-546 but ran the ball 52 times for 330 yards, won the turnover battle 2-1, and made a couple of key defensive stops right at the right time with the game still up for grabs.

The Heels have now out-gained and out-rushed five of their eight Power 5 opponents this season. They've just lost some games they were supposed to win.

Pitt Betting Preview

The Panthers, meanwhile, are 7-2 on the season after bouncing back to beat Duke last week 54-29. Pitt struck first with a touchdown midway into the first quarter but trailed the Blue Devils 19-14 midway through the second. The Panthers then used a 23-0 run spanning the halves to take control and later tacked on one last score with two minutes to go to cover the spread at -21. Wasn't that nice? Pitt out-gained Duke 636-376, out-rushed the Blue Devils 220-135, and made two early defensive stops deep inside their own red zone. So the Panthers have out-gained each of their six Power 5 opponents this season and out-rushed four of those six foes. At 4-1 in conference play, Pitt leads the ACC Coastal Division by a half-game over 4-2 Virginia and a game and a half over 3-3 North Carolina.

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North Carolina-Pitt Recent History

The Tar Heels won the first six meetings with the Panthers after the teams became ACC rivals back in 2013, going 5-1 ATS along the way. But most recently, two seasons ago, Pitt beat the Heels in overtime 34-27. All seven meetings between these teams over that span have been decided by seven points or less.

Common Opponents

These two teams have played four common opponents this season; Pitt played 3-1 both SU and ATS against Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, Duke, and Miami, and +172 yards per game, while North Carolina played 2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS vs. those four foes, and +34 YPG.

College Football Betting Trends

So far this season, teams ranked in the Coaches Top 25 are 134-36 SU, 85-82 ATS against unranked opponents.

Totals Report

Overs are 6-3 in Carolina games this season, which are averaging 72 total points. Overs are 7-2 in Pitt games this season, which are averaging 68 points. Overs are 6-1 over the last seven meetings between these teams, which have trended high-scoring.

North Carolina at Pittsburgh Week 11 Prediction ATS

Several signs point towards Pitt here, most notably the advantage on defense. But North Carolina, while disappointing, is still dangerous. If this game were lined before this season started, it would be about a pick 'em. Now, the Heels are getting a touchdown. And who would be surprised if Carolina won this game outright? We like the Tar Heels here, plus the points.        

Free Pick: 
Take UNC +6.5