New Mexico Lobos at Boise State Broncos Week 12 Pick

November 16, 10:15 PM EST

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
Boise State -28

The New Mexico Lobos (2-7) will venture to Boise, Idaho to take on the No. 22-ranked Boise State Broncos (8-1) for a Mountain West collision at the fabled “Smurf Turf” of Albertson’s Stadium. Kick-off time is set for 10:15 PM ET on Saturday, November 16th, 2019. The game will be televised on ESPN2. The Broncos and Lobos are quite familiar with each other as conference cohorts. Presently, BSU sports a three-game win streak over the Lobos. In 2018, the Lobos hosted the Broncos and fell by a score of 45-14, failing to come in as a 21-point underdog.

New Mexico Lobos at Boise State Broncos Key Injury Concerns

Heading into this Mountain West Conference clash, Boise State Safety Kekoa Nawahine is listed as questionable as he recovers from a lower-body injury. Nawahine leads the Broncos with interceptions on the year (2) and was not available in Boise’s last match with Wyoming.

New Mexico Lobos at Boise State Broncos Overview

New Mexico Lobos

The Lobos come into this contest off a bye. Overall, New Mexico has lost its last six straight, producing a 2-4 ATS record over this span. Most recently, the Lobos were defeated 21-10 at Nevada, failing to create a cover as a 3.5-point underdog in their last tilt on November 2nd.

Boise State Broncos

After losing their sole defeat on October 19th at BYU, the Broncos have since rebounded with two straight victories over San Jose State and Wyoming. In both affairs, the Broncos have failed to cover as 16.5-point favorites in both contests. Most recently, overtime was required to determine the victor when the Broncos hosted the Cowboys of Wyoming last Saturday and pulled off a 20-17 win.

Reasons To Back New Mexico Lobos

Rest will certainly be a factor here, and it will be working in favor of New Mexico. However, it is not just respite that makes the Lobos a good play here. New Mexico's offense, while not prolific in many facets, is still capable of producing a few scores to put UNM in position to cover. The Lobos average 23.4 points per game (103rd in the FBS), and they are quite handy when it comes to running the ball as they average 200.3 rushing yards per game (35th in America). While Boise's defense is certainly one that is solid, New Mexico has a blueprint that could raise the Bronco's defense pitch-count and keep their offense off the field. A few scores will put New Mexico in position to come in under the number, and I like those prospects given how the Broncos have given up 31 points in their previous four outings.

Reasons To Avoid Boise State Broncos

What more can be said other than the Broncos are in a position to be overvalued here by their name and the venue where this contest is taking place. Boise State is a team that needs no introduction, they are for many accounts the kings of mid-major football, and they are known as a tough team to beat in their own stead. As a result, Boise State may be laying a bigger number than they should here. After all, Boise is 5-0 SU on the year at home, but they are just 3-2 ATS in contests at the Smurf Turf. Given how 84% of the public are aboard the Broncos here, it leads me to believe that Boise State is a prime fade target here against an opponent perceived as inferior by comparison.

New Mexico at Boise State Prediction 11/16/19

I don’t see overtime being required in this contest to determine a winner, nor do I suspect the Broncos will have trouble getting a win. At first, I thought perhaps Boise is laying this big number because they will be in a position to pummel New Mexico. After all, why would they be priced in this range given how they have performed as of recent? Boise State has been struggling to get by opponents and failing to come in as the chalk while doing so. However, handicapping in many facets is a number's game. The Broncos' had won by more than 28 just once this season on September 14th when it defeated FCS Prairie View A&M 45-10 (the Broncos did not cover priced at -34.5). New Mexico has lost by more than 28 just once this season on that same September weekend when they were torched 66-14 at Notre Dame and failed to come in as a 34.5-point underdog. For these reasons, I have to grab the points.

Free Pick: 
Take New Mexico +28
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