New Era Pinstripe Bowl - Miami Hurricanes vs. Wisconsin Badgers Pick - Betting Odds

Date: 
December 27, 5:15 PM EST
Location:
TV:

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
Miami -4
Total: 
48

Two 7-5 teams failing to live up to some lofty expectations this season clash in the New Era Pinstripe Bowl at Yankee Stadium on Thursday, Dec. 27 with the ACC’s Miami Hurricanes facing off against the Big Ten’s Wisconsin Badgers. Game time on ESPN is set for 5:15 p.m.

Miami vs. Wisconsin Game Overview

Miami started the season ranked No. 8 in both major preseason polls, but things did not go as planned with a straight-up 2-4 slide over its last six games, following a 5-1 start. The Hurricanes knocked off Pittsburgh 24-3 in its regular-season finale as five-point home favorites, but this was just the second time they covered the spread in their last seven games. The total stayed UNDER 46 points against the Panthers, and it stayed UNDER in each of their previous six outings.

The Hurricanes had an even balance between the pass and the run when it came to yards gained with 177.3 yards through the air and 197.3 rushing yards per game. Malik Rosier gave way to N’Kosi Perry at quarterback with each player throwing for over 1000 yards. Travis Homer powered the running game with 969 rushing yards on 154 carries. Miami’s defense allowed an average of 18.2 points per game, but it gave up 27 points or more in three of the five losses.

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The bar was set even higher for Wisconsin at No. 4 in the AP's preseason Top 25, but an early loss to BYU as a 23.5-point home favorite on Sept. 15 set the stage for a few more disappointing losses down the road. The Badgers ground out a 7-5 straight up record this season while going 5-4 in conference play. However, they failed to cover in nine of their 12 games with a costly 2-7 record ATS closing as favorites. The total stayed UNDER in four of their last five games.

The time-tested combination of a power running game on offense complementing a shutdown defense had its moments this season with an average of 268.4 rushing yards and 24.3 points allowed. Running back Jonathan Taylor took home the Doak Walker Award for his 1,989 total rushing yards and 15 touchdowns on 280 carries as one of the highlights of the season. Wisconsin getting blown out by Minnesota 37-14 in its season finale as an 11.5-point favorite was one of the low moments in a disappointing campaign.

Miami vs. Wisconsin Game Betting Trends

  • The Hurricanes have failed to cover in five of their last six games against the Big Ten, but they are 12-5 ATS in their previous 17 games coming off an ATS win. The total has stayed UNDER in four of their last five bowl games
  • The Badgers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 neutral-site games, and they have failed to cover in four of their last five games against a straight-up winning team. The total has stayed UNDER in four of their last five neutral-site games.
  • Wisconsin has won two previous meetings both SU, and ATS with the total evenly split 1-1.

Miami vs. Wisconsin Prediction 12/27/2018

You have to question each team's motivation coming into this game after failing to come close to their lofty expectations. Playing this game outdoors in New York could give a slight lean to the cold-weather Badgers against a team from South Florida.

I see this matchup turning into a grinder with each defense stepping up its game to keep the total UNDER the current 48-point betting line.

Free Pick: 
Take the Under 48
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