Navy Midshipmen at Tulsa Golden Hurricane Pick ATS

October 29, 7:30 PM EDT

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
Navy +11/Tulsa -11

Tulsa made the American Athletic Conference championship game last season but will probably have to play perfectly from here on out, beginning with Friday night's battle with Navy, to make it back this season.

The Golden Hurricane started 0-3 this season, but they're 3-1 over their last four games. The Midshipmen, meanwhile, aren't winning many games this season, but they are covering spreads, four times their past five times out.

Tulsa is lined as a double-digit favorite in this spot; how are we playing this game with our free college football betting pick?

Navy-Tulsa Betting Odds

This week's college football betting lines opened Tulsa as a 10-point favorite for Friday night, with an over/under of right around 48. Early betting action then bumped the Hurricane to -11 and dipped that total to 47.

Navy Betting Preview

The Midshipmen are 1-6 on the season after taking a tough 27-20 loss to a very good Cincinnati team last week. Navy, playing as a 28-point home underdog, drew first blood with a touchdown late in the first quarter and led 10-7 well into the second quarter. The Mids then gave up a 20-0 Bearcats run, spanning the halves to fall behind by three scores, got back within seven points with just under a minute to go, and recovered an onside kick. But an interception ended the rally. However, Navy easily covered the spread, and that's what's really important. The Midshipmen actually out-gained Cincinnati 308-271, out-rushed the Bearcats 192-95, and dominated time of possession by a 39:21 split. And that's how you cover a point spread. Navy has now out-gained two of its last four opponents and out-rushed four of its last five foes. It's also 4-1 ATS over its last five games. But at 1-6 overall, the Midshipmen must win out from here to become bowl-eligible.

Tulsa Betting Preview

Meanwhile, the Golden Hurricane is 3-4 on the season after rallying to win at South Florida last week 32-31. Tulsa gave up two defensive/special teams touchdowns in the second quarter and trailed the Bulls 31-20 through three quarters. But the 'Cane scored the last 12 points of the game, the last six on a touchdown with less than a minute to go, to steal victory from the jaws of defeat. However, Tulsa came up short ATS at -7.5. The Hurricane out-gained USF 535-268, out-rushed the Bulls 269-113 and won the time of possession by a 35:25 split. They also lost the turnover battle 3-1, which resulted in about a -17 points differential, which nearly cost them the game. Tulsa has now out-gained only three of its last six opponents, but it's also out-rushed three of its last four foes. At 2-1 in conference play, the Hurricane trail first-place Houston by a game and a half in the AAC and sit just one game behind second-place Cincinnati and SMU. But Tulsa also needs three wins over its last five games to become bowl-eligible, and they've got tough ones coming up against the Bearcats and Mustangs, both on the road.

Navy-Tulsa Recent History

The Midshipmen beat Tulsa five times in a row from 2015-19, but last year the Hurricane beat Navy 19-6, covering at -12.5.

That game also played under a total of 46 as the two teams combined for just 449 total yards of offense.

Navy-Tulsa Common Opponents

These two teams have played two common opponents this season. The Hurricane lost to Houston 45-10 and beat Memphis 35-29 while Navy lost to the Cougars 28-20 and to the Tigers 35-17.

Totals Report

The Under is 4-3 in Navy games this season, which are averaging 50 total points. Overs are 5-1-1 in Tulsa games this season, which are averaging 58 points. Overs are 4-2 over the last six meetings between these two teams, which have trended high-scoring, except for last season.

Midshipmen vs. Golden Hurricane Prediction 10/29/21

Tulsa's the better team here, talent-wise, and should win this game outright. The Hurricane are also working off a bye week. Meanwhile, Navy put up a big effort last week and might be ripe for a letdown. We're taking Tulsa here, minus the points. 

Free Pick: 
Take Tulsa -11